snowman19 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NAM has cut way back on snow for the metro area. It is starting to go the way of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The mid-level centers pass just, and I emphasize just Southeast of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: NAM has cut way back on snow for the metro area. It is starting to go the way of the GFS Just west of NYC stays all snow while the city east has issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Well if this comes to fruition, very little snow will fall East of the city. They will go from rain over to slot fairly quickly, maybe a few inches in certain areas, but certainly not the 6"+ amounts forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 This looks like Rain to period of heavier snows as deformation band swings through. I'd go 2-4 for city, 4-8 north and west with 12 to Sussex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Neblizzard said: Just west of NYC stays all snow while the city east has issues. Most of the immediate Western suburbs and NYC itself would have major dry slot issues, probably anyone East of the Parkway and maybe even anyone East of the 287, 78 interchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Early on, but the NAM looks more amped up than 06z. Pretty obvious it's no big deal for the City now. Guess I'll be working tomorrow. The NW shift every storm has been amazing. Why can't it be corrected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: This looks like Rain to period of heavier snows as deformation band swings through. I'd go 2-4 for city, 4-8 north and west with 12 to Sussex county. Nam might be too amped up but this run shows snow to dry slot for NYC with a few inches and alot more snow to the north and west. 3-6 seems good but it's only the nam right now. Have to see the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Enigma said: This looks like Rain to period of heavier snows as deformation band swings through. I'd go 2-4 for city, 4-8 north and west with 12 to Sussex county. Wow that's not very much given we were talking about 12"+ just a few hours ago. Of course, basing your forecast on the NAM is never a good idea. The only runs that matter are the Euro and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The surface low jumps northwest from 27-30. That's the killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Pretty obvious it's no big deal for the City now. Guess I'll be working tomorrow. The NW shift every storm has been amazing. Why can't it be corrected? Wait until the other models before you saying it's no big deal. This is snow to dry slot for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, RDRY said: The surface low jumps northwest from 27-30. That's the killer. There are 2 lows which seem weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Wait until the other models before you saying it's no big deal. This is snow to dry slot for NYC. It's just the canadians and Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z track of SLP, and I put a blue X over the Benchmark, so you can see how far NW the track is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Let me guess, this is the NAM run that is on crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The dry slot is a real threat for NYC itself, and places like Newark, New Brunswick and all of Long Island. Further North and West this is still a massive snowstorm, but the highest totals are now in the Poconos, and places to the West and East of Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The dry slot is a real threat for NYC itself, and places like Newark, New Brunswick and all of Long Island. Further North and West this is still a massive snowstorm, but the highest totals are now in the Poconos, and places to the West and East of Albany. Rain, sleet, or dry slot, something will always kill off a big March storm here. Even, incredibly, suppression one year. It's like the Red Sox used to be with the series.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3k seems a bit colder, no? People need to step away from the ledge and lets see the rest of the 12z suite play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The dry slot is a real threat for NYC itself, and places like Newark, New Brunswick and all of Long Island. Further North and West this is still a massive snowstorm, but the highest totals are now in the Poconos, and places to the West and East of Albany. A smaller storm would be nice so we don't lose power again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Very close to dry slot by 3PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The dry slot is a real threat for NYC itself, and places like Newark, New Brunswick and all of Long Island. Further North and West this is still a massive snowstorm, but the highest totals are now in the Poconos, and places to the West and East of Albany. What does a dry slot look like on these various graphs, serious question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z track of SLP, and I put a blue X over the Benchmark, so you can see how far NW the track is That's still a really good track for NYC, and the cold air is pressed tight on the west side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, North and West said: A smaller storm would be nice so we don't lose power again. You're far enough West that you shouldn't dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Very close to dry slot by 3PM Assuming the big hole over Monmouth is the dry slot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: There are 2 lows which seem weird. Look at the 3K at 26. It jumps the surface low to southern Jersey and it's game over for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 What does a dry slot look like on these various graphs, serious questionCircled Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, weatherpruf said: Assuming the big hole over Monmouth is the dry slot.... No the area approaching southern NASSAU is the dry slot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 For the south shore of Nassau county its rain for the majority of the storm....Not surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: What does a dry slot look like on these various graphs, serious question So whenever you have mid-level cyclones passing nearby, you have sinking air, which naturally causes a dry slot, similar to why the eye of a hurricane is clear, of course that's an extreme case, but you can get eyes on some of these nor'easters. If I could post a model image showing relative humidity, you could easily see the dry air. @forkyfork posted one yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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