March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Metasequoia said:

Crankyweatherguy has a nice explamation of storm's evolution and models' difficulty rendering it. Basically,   many models are not handling the occlusion correctly, which leads to an innacuate thermal forecast. Resulting in more rain and less snow along the coast. 

Wait, the models are overpredicting rain or snow? in other words, the inaccurate thermal forecast causes the model to show more rain, or more snow? This matters.....if he is even right...

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Wait, the models are overpredicting rain or snow? in other words, the inaccurate thermal forecast causes the model to show more rain, or more snow? This matters.....if he is even right...

What I believe he is trying to say is that some of lesser snow amounts that are being depicted are the result of the BL temps being to warm and they should be colder. Correct me if I am wrong please!

[friedmators]

Ride the Euro. #saveahorse


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[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

What I believe he is trying to say is that some of lesser snow amounts that are being depicted are the result of the BL temps being to warm and they should be colder. Correct me if I am wrong please!

Actually his totals are not really that different from the NWS. He has 6-8 for the city, some are going with up to 6, with the best , north and west....interesting site but kinda confusing at first.

[Metasequoia]

Crankyweatherguy contends that not much has changed since 00Z runs. The parent low still tracks from VA Capes out to benchmark with an occlusion trailing west towards the coast. He contends that this occlusion won't flood coast with warmth, especially as compared to a tucked primary low. Models are handling occlusion incorrectly...

I trust this guy.

Better to read his morning Tweets.

 

[Metasequoia]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Actually his totals are not really that different from the NWS. He has 6-8 for the city, some are going with up to 6, with the best , north and west....interesting site but kinda confusing at first.

I don't think those are his totals. I could be wrong...

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Metasequoia said:

Crankyweatherguy contends that not much has changed since 00Z runs. The parent low still tracks from VA Capes out to benchmark with an occlusion trailing west towards the coast. He contends that this occlusion won't flood coast with warmth, especially as compared to a tucked primary low. Models are handling occlusion incorrectly...

I trust this guy.

Better to read his morning Tweets.

 

Ok that's what I thought and I did go read him, the site's a little confusing, but I'm not used to following tweets. 

[CIK62]

Relying on adiabatic cooling to get us to 32 is tricky.

Last storm I got near 32 at the very end, when grass, beach and car tops got white.  The real temperature was 35 to 38, as revealed within a few hours of precipation ending.

Also, NWS has a 90% chance of our beating 0", while calling 8" likely.  Sounds idiotic.  If 8" is really likely, a minimum of 4" seems resonable.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Metasequoia said:

I don't think those are his totals.

That's what I saw on the map. NYC is big and maybe some parts of it were higher; I was focusing on the are near SI.

[qg_omega]

16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Things looking good, glad to see the Euro cave some and come West. 

Let’s not forget that the Euro failed miserably at this range for the January 15 blizzard, where it had heavy snow back to the Poconos and reality was the Hudson River, so it’s happened before. Main difference is it was on its own then, and now agreement is good on most guidance other than BL temps. 

I think the threat of dry slotting is real, especially East of the Hudson River, but that’s the risk you take in order to get the strongest dynamics onshore.

Or last Friday when it was by far the worst model consistently predicting a foot of snow even the 12z run during the storm

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Crankyweatherguy contends that not much has changed since 00Z runs. The parent low still tracks from VA Capes out to benchmark with an occlusion trailing west towards the coast. He contends that this occlusion won't flood coast with warmth, especially as compared to a tucked primary low. Models are handling occlusion incorrectly...

I trust this guy.

Better to read his morning Tweets.

 

He could be onto something.  That is why the entire deformation area basically dies as the low ejects to the east.  I didn’t think of the possibility that borderline occlusion is being mishandled but it’s its possible 

[jm1220]

I'm not riding the Euro as much as I used to. If I had to bet money I'd wager it's more correct than the GFS/Nam, but I don't just discount them anymore. The NAM's been doing better recently, and the Euro's had several fails over the last few years. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

He could be onto something.  That is why the entire deformation area basically dies as the low ejects to the east.  I didn’t think of the possibility that borderline occlusion is being mishandled but it’s its possible 

So then it comes down to the forecaster if the models have to be adjusted for, which leaves me pretty unsure what it actually going to happen. 

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

He could be onto something.  That is why the entire deformation area basically dies as the low ejects to the east.  I didn’t think of the possibility that borderline occlusion is being mishandled but it’s its possible 

So then is he oluding to the fact that the warm air push wouldn’t be as far west as the NAM and GFS showed at 6z? And that they should adjust east some??

[friedmators]

Relying on adiabatic cooling to get us to 32 is tricky.
Last storm I got near 32 at the very end, when grass, beach and car tops got white.  The real temperature was 35 to 38, as revealed within a few hours of precipation ending.
Also, NWS has a 90% chance of our beating 0", while calling 8" likely.  Sounds idiotic.  If 8" is really likely, a minimum of 4" seems resonable.

Agreed. I got down to 32.5 once the sun went down but the precip was basically over. And then a quick rise. We also never got the advertised rates which would have piled up irregardless of the temp.


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[hooralph]

4 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Relying on adiabatic cooling to get us to 32 is tricky.

Last storm I got near 32 at the very end, when grass, beach and car tops got white.  The real temperature was 35 to 38, as revealed within a few hours of precipation ending.

Also, NWS has a 90% chance of our beating 0", while calling 8" likely.  Sounds idiotic.  If 8" is really likely, a minimum of 4" seems resonable.

Nightmares can come true. I was in Boston for the Millenium storm (12/30/00). We were under a WSW for 8-14" right up to the event and walked away with nothing.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, friedmators said:

 

Agreed. I got down to 32.5 once the sun went down but the precip was basically over. And then a quick rise. We also never got the advertised rates which would have piled up irregardless of the temp.


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I think a l ot of us have been burned now and we aren't buying a definite huge snowstorm as a given. At least not for us, Probably for a lot of other folks. We are still in the game, gotta see what happens.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, hooralph said:

Nightmares can come true. I was in Boston for the Millenium storm (12/30/00). We were under a WSW for 8-14" right up to the event and walked away with nothing.

Seen it happen. Several times in recent memory.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Nightmares can come true. I was in Boston for the Millenium storm (12/30/00). We were under a WSW for 8-14" right up to the event and walked away with nothing.

The models really botched that event.  Back then they weren’t great at forecasting thermals or track in that sort of setup where a low just popped off the coast 

[friedmators]

The models really botched that event.  Back then they weren’t great at forecasting thermals or track in that sort of setup where a low just popped off the coast 

I can’t imagine how it must have been in the 70/80s. My father tells a story of 12+ being forecasted and we got two hours of drizzle then the sun came out.


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[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Seen it happen. Several times in recent memory.

Your fine for a big storm.

this is not tucking in that close. It’s going to follow the area of greatest baroclynicity. This is over the Gulf Stream. There is a reason why most major storms track over the bench mark. 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your fine for a big storm.

this is not tucking in that close. It’s going to follow the area of greatest baroclynicity. This is over the Gulf Stream. There is a reason why most major storms track over the bench mark. 

I guess in the end there is always some uncertainty, though some of the big ones were evident enough beforehand. Some have been squishy right up to the day before, Boxing Day was one, Jan 19 2011 was another, we never expected 19 inches from that one. Seems though we are in more marginal setups or maybe we are just better at seeing the margins now.

[weatherpruf]

10 minutes ago, friedmators said:

I can’t imagine how it must have been in the 70/80s. My father tells a story of 12+ being forecasted and we got two hours of drizzle then the sun came out.


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Feb 89 we were waiting on a big one and never saw a flake, as the storm stayed south of us. Schools were closed and all.

[White Gorilla]

Uncertainty makes this hobby exciting. 

[Metasequoia]

I would also think that since this storm will be so cold at 850 mb to 700 mb, this would work in our favor.

[White Gorilla]

9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Feb 89 we were waiting on a big one and never saw a flake, as the storm stayed south of us. Schools were closed and all.

I remember.  Very disappointing. 

[North and West]

What’s going on for MBY? (MMU) trying to following everything; can’t tell who is looking at rain/snow/sleet. We just got power back Sunday afternoon, so this is concerning. Thank you!


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[friedmators]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

I remember.  Very disappointing. 

wheres @donsutherland1. I am sure he has stats for the biggest busts of all times going back to the Cretaceous.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

wheres @donsutherland1. I am sure he has stats for the biggest busts of all times going back to the Cretaceous.

Jan 2015.....biggest bust ive ever been part of....Blizzard warning for 20-28 inches....i saw 20-28 flakes

[White Gorilla]

Waiting for a storm where everyone in this subforum gets a foot plus.