March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

[DaveTinNY]

3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 

 

Less than 1000 J/kg is considered weak

The SPC puts out Slight Risks with 500 to 1000 J/kg.  I'll take any convective lift that we get in a March snowstorm.   

[DaveTinNY]

3 hours ago, Meteoropoulos said:

Got it. Like last weeks storm where the low tracked west into the Atlantic once it was closed off, and that closing off intensity allowed for the vertical drop of just enough cold air to turn many to snow. Without that closing off, there just wouldn't have been enough cold air from the north, so it took it from directly above?

 

Sorry, I am a LONG time lurker here and just trying to learn even more by actually posting. Lol. I  REALLY appreciate all of the wonderful insight and knowledge that I have learned from here thought the last few years. Especially yourself UlsterCountySnowZ! I miss the days when you used to do the play by plays on those 2am EURO runs and all the other models. Dont see that as much around here anymore. I truly loved the small descriptive to the point posts as the frames were coming out, and jumped when I see the word, "crushed".  I swear I had popcorn a couple of night. Lol

 

Again, thanks for all you do and to the rest of the forum!

Pete 

Like your user name, Peter.  I married a Greek girl.    Agree with your sentiments as well.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Anybody have a guesstimate of the strart time for this , midnight tonight or early AM tomorrow ? 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Anybody have a guesstimate of the strart time for this , midnight tonight or early AM tomorrow ? 

Late morning

[weatherpruf]

Having just read Mt Holly's 4 am update, it seems that this is likely a repeat of last March's storm. They say 195 should be the dividing line between rain and snow.....which is why I never get excited for March storms. No way that rain line kisses my area without moving in. They call it a difficult forecast. NW is still safe, which is what you'd expect. Went to bed WNYC was talking snow, now they are talking rain and "up to" 6 inches of snow in the city. I expect this will become clearer today; other thing they point out is iffy cold air. That was my takeaway anyway. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Having just read Mt Holly's 4 am update, it seems that this is likely a repeat of last March's storm. They say 195 should be the dividing line between rain and snow.....which is why I never get excited for March storms. No way that rain line kisses my area without moving in. They call it a difficult forecast. NW is still safe, which is what you'd expect. Went to bed WNYC was talking snow, now they are talking rain and "up to" 6 inches of snow in the city. I expect this will become clearer today; other thing they point out is iffy cold air. That was my takeaway anyway. 

The storm last year was much warmer

This will not be a repeat.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Late morning

I just read it will start Tuesday night....and will rain for a lot of this subforum. That was Mt Holly. There would be a changeover to snow, but totals would be cut down, except NW. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Snow88 said:

The storm last year was much warmer

This will not be a repeat.

Well you're Upton, haven't read theirs yet. For me the writing is on the wall. I'm just relaying what I read from the folks who do this stuff for a living. Still, won't be disappointed with 6, it's March.

[Rtd208]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Late morning

Actually this looks to come in as early as later this evening but may begin as a rain/snow mix with mostly snow beginning after midnight so I would think the morning rush hour on Wednesday will be affected.

[Blizz]

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Actually this looks to come in as early as later this evening but may begin as a rain/snow mix with mostly snow beginning after midnight so I would think the morning rush hour on Wednesday will be effected.

What do you like for our area Ron

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Blizz said:

3.5 for the Middlesex Cty area?

[Blizz]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

3.5 for the metro area?

The GEFS is on the warm/west side of most guidance. 

[allgame830]

Just now, Blizz said:

The GEFS is on the warm/west side of most guidance. 

Yes that is absurd.... not happening! 

[ILoveWinter]

What did the 6z NAM show?

[weatherpruf]

Just now, allgame830 said:

Yes that is absurd.... not happening! 

Mt Holly seemed to be saying something about totals being cut down ( predictable IMO with most storms ) but didn't give specific numbers, but local reports are suggesting 6 for my area. Which is a good March storm for us.

[Blizz]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

What did the 6z NAM show?

[WeatherFeen2000]

This will wiggle back east obviously it' going to tuck in reality just not as much as nam and gfs  I do however expect it to stall off the long island cause of the block. And the storm begins earlier than late morning Anthony it should start by 

3am but the real heavy stuff around 9:30. This could potentially have thunder snow around 1pm as the daytime heating really makes this storm explode! 

[Brasiluvsnow]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Late morning

Snow I was guessing more like midnight give or take,,,,It might get cranking around rush hour in the A M no ?

[SnowGoose69]

It would be pretty epic if the Euro failed this miserably again this close in.  Then again last event it actually did play til it’s last run 12 hours before and that was more it’s snow maps that failed than anything else.  I think the Euro is too east but I also don’t know if I believe the extreme west solutions either.   My initial hunch was this would track across far eastern LI.  The setup changed with the kick east which O felt would prevent an LI landfall and push the track just east of there.  

[Rtd208]

Lets wait until the 12z runs before possibly jumping onto any west/warmer idea. I don't think that is going to happen but don't want to completely dismiss the possibility either.

[jm1220]

We'll have to see what 12z says but I said yesterday that we're not out of the woods near the coast for a last minute west/warm trend. That's why it was impossible to guess over 3-6". The Euro run was encouraging and makes me think the GFS/NAM went a little too far at 6z, but those are possibilities here. The Canadian 6z products were colder than the GFS/NAM but may have ticked slightly warmer from 0z. We have little wiggle room here, and we really need the low to move NE/ENE after hugging to ACY. If not, high chance it goes to rain or dryslots. 12z should tell the tale if there's a new west and amped trend or this was a fluke. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It would be pretty epic if the Euro failed this miserably again this close in.  Then again last event it actually did play til it’s last run 12 hours before and that was more it’s snow maps that failed than anything else.  I think the Euro is too east but I also don’t know if I believe the extreme west solutions either.   My initial hunch was this would track across far eastern LI.  The setup changed with the kick east which O felt would prevent an LI landfall and push the track just east of there.  

What are the implications? 

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, Blizz said:

Thanks, seems like a bump west for the GFS and NAM.  Not worrying (yet) though as these wiggles are common.  Hopefully it comes back east some at 12z.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, jm1220 said:

We'll have to see what 12z says but I said yesterday that we're not out of the woods near the coast for a last minute west/warm trend. That's why it was impossible to guess over 3-6". The Euro run was encouraging and makes me think the GFS/NAM went a little too far at 6z, but those are possibilities here. The Canadian 6z products were colder than the GFS/NAM but may have ticked slightly warmer from 0z. We have little wiggle room here, and we really need the low to move NE/ENE after hugging to ACY. If not, high chance it goes to rain or dryslots. 12z should tell the tale if there's a new west and amped trend or this was a fluke. 

I’m not sure there really is a middle ground on this other than a narrow corridor. This is probably a pounding of snow or mostly rain/dry slot.  That is sort of what 12/30/00 was except a narrow area in central Suffolk where they saw 4-8 and changed over 

[tim]

...KFOK with its 'fake cold' @ 23*( i'm @ 25*)..probably one of the coldest reading

area wide..but tomorrow we RAIN.

[Ericjcrash]

Wow 06z was just ugly. Now guidance comes way too far north before scooting it east. Given the seasonal trends and climo it's to be expected. Better hope the Euro is correct even the UK is almost too tucked. Definitely need a reversal with the 12z suite.

[NJwx85]

Things looking good, glad to see the Euro cave some and come West. 

Let’s not forget that the Euro failed miserably at this range for the January 15 blizzard, where it had heavy snow back to the Poconos and reality was the Hudson River, so it’s happened before. Main difference is it was on its own then, and now agreement is good on most guidance other than BL temps. 

I think the threat of dry slotting is real, especially East of the Hudson River, but that’s the risk you take in order to get the strongest dynamics onshore.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Things looking good, glad to see the Euro cave some and come West. 

Let’s not forget that the Euro failed miserably at this range for the January 15 blizzard, where it had heavy snow back to the Poconos and reality was the Hudson River, so it’s happened before. Main difference is it was on its own then, and now agreement is good on most guidance other than BL temps. 

I think the threat of dry slotting is real, especially East of the Hudson River, but that’s the risk you take in order to get the strongest dynamics onshore.

I don't think west trend is good for some of us, the runs overnight shown here and the info from Mt Holly are not encouraging, though you are ok it seems.

[Metasequoia]

Crankyweatherguy has a nice explanation of storm's evolution and models' difficulty rendering it. Basically,   many models are not handling the occlusion correctly, which leads to an innacuate thermal forecast. Resulting in more rain and less snow along the coast.