Brasiluvsnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Anybody have a guesstimate of the strart time for this , midnight tonight or early AM tomorrow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Anybody have a guesstimate of the strart time for this , midnight tonight or early AM tomorrow ? Late morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Having just read Mt Holly's 4 am update, it seems that this is likely a repeat of last March's storm. They say 195 should be the dividing line between rain and snow.....which is why I never get excited for March storms. No way that rain line kisses my area without moving in. They call it a difficult forecast. NW is still safe, which is what you'd expect. Went to bed WNYC was talking snow, now they are talking rain and "up to" 6 inches of snow in the city. I expect this will become clearer today; other thing they point out is iffy cold air. That was my takeaway anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Having just read Mt Holly's 4 am update, it seems that this is likely a repeat of last March's storm. They say 195 should be the dividing line between rain and snow.....which is why I never get excited for March storms. No way that rain line kisses my area without moving in. They call it a difficult forecast. NW is still safe, which is what you'd expect. Went to bed WNYC was talking snow, now they are talking rain and "up to" 6 inches of snow in the city. I expect this will become clearer today; other thing they point out is iffy cold air. That was my takeaway anyway. The storm last year was much warmer This will not be a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Late morning I just read it will start Tuesday night....and will rain for a lot of this subforum. That was Mt Holly. There would be a changeover to snow, but totals would be cut down, except NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: The storm last year was much warmer This will not be a repeat. Well you're Upton, haven't read theirs yet. For me the writing is on the wall. I'm just relaying what I read from the folks who do this stuff for a living. Still, won't be disappointed with 6, it's March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Late morning Actually this looks to come in as early as later this evening but may begin as a rain/snow mix with mostly snow beginning after midnight so I would think the morning rush hour on Wednesday will be affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Actually this looks to come in as early as later this evening but may begin as a rain/snow mix with mostly snow beginning after midnight so I would think the morning rush hour on Wednesday will be effected. What do you like for our area Ron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizz said: 3.5 for the Middlesex Cty area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, weatherpruf said: 3.5 for the metro area? The GEFS is on the warm/west side of most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Blizz said: The GEFS is on the warm/west side of most guidance. Yes that is absurd.... not happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 What did the 6z NAM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: Yes that is absurd.... not happening! Mt Holly seemed to be saying something about totals being cut down ( predictable IMO with most storms ) but didn't give specific numbers, but local reports are suggesting 6 for my area. Which is a good March storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, ILoveWinter said: What did the 6z NAM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 This will wiggle back east obviously it' going to tuck in reality just not as much as nam and gfs I do however expect it to stall off the long island cause of the block. And the storm begins earlier than late morning Anthony it should start by 3am but the real heavy stuff around 9:30. This could potentially have thunder snow around 1pm as the daytime heating really makes this storm explode! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Late morning Snow I was guessing more like midnight give or take,,,,It might get cranking around rush hour in the A M no ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It would be pretty epic if the Euro failed this miserably again this close in. Then again last event it actually did play til it’s last run 12 hours before and that was more it’s snow maps that failed than anything else. I think the Euro is too east but I also don’t know if I believe the extreme west solutions either. My initial hunch was this would track across far eastern LI. The setup changed with the kick east which O felt would prevent an LI landfall and push the track just east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Lets wait until the 12z runs before possibly jumping onto any west/warmer idea. I don't think that is going to happen but don't want to completely dismiss the possibility either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 We'll have to see what 12z says but I said yesterday that we're not out of the woods near the coast for a last minute west/warm trend. That's why it was impossible to guess over 3-6". The Euro run was encouraging and makes me think the GFS/NAM went a little too far at 6z, but those are possibilities here. The Canadian 6z products were colder than the GFS/NAM but may have ticked slightly warmer from 0z. We have little wiggle room here, and we really need the low to move NE/ENE after hugging to ACY. If not, high chance it goes to rain or dryslots. 12z should tell the tale if there's a new west and amped trend or this was a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It would be pretty epic if the Euro failed this miserably again this close in. Then again last event it actually did play til it’s last run 12 hours before and that was more it’s snow maps that failed than anything else. I think the Euro is too east but I also don’t know if I believe the extreme west solutions either. My initial hunch was this would track across far eastern LI. The setup changed with the kick east which O felt would prevent an LI landfall and push the track just east of there. What are the implications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Blizz said: Thanks, seems like a bump west for the GFS and NAM. Not worrying (yet) though as these wiggles are common. Hopefully it comes back east some at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: We'll have to see what 12z says but I said yesterday that we're not out of the woods near the coast for a last minute west/warm trend. That's why it was impossible to guess over 3-6". The Euro run was encouraging and makes me think the GFS/NAM went a little too far at 6z, but those are possibilities here. The Canadian 6z products were colder than the GFS/NAM but may have ticked slightly warmer from 0z. We have little wiggle room here, and we really need the low to move NE/ENE after hugging to ACY. If not, high chance it goes to rain or dryslots. 12z should tell the tale if there's a new west and amped trend or this was a fluke. I’m not sure there really is a middle ground on this other than a narrow corridor. This is probably a pounding of snow or mostly rain/dry slot. That is sort of what 12/30/00 was except a narrow area in central Suffolk where they saw 4-8 and changed over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 ...KFOK with its 'fake cold' @ 23*( i'm @ 25*)..probably one of the coldest reading area wide..but tomorrow we RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wow 06z was just ugly. Now guidance comes way too far north before scooting it east. Given the seasonal trends and climo it's to be expected. Better hope the Euro is correct even the UK is almost too tucked. Definitely need a reversal with the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Things looking good, glad to see the Euro cave some and come West. Let’s not forget that the Euro failed miserably at this range for the January 15 blizzard, where it had heavy snow back to the Poconos and reality was the Hudson River, so it’s happened before. Main difference is it was on its own then, and now agreement is good on most guidance other than BL temps. I think the threat of dry slotting is real, especially East of the Hudson River, but that’s the risk you take in order to get the strongest dynamics onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Things looking good, glad to see the Euro cave some and come West. Let’s not forget that the Euro failed miserably at this range for the January 15 blizzard, where it had heavy snow back to the Poconos and reality was the Hudson River, so it’s happened before. Main difference is it was on its own then, and now agreement is good on most guidance other than BL temps. I think the threat of dry slotting is real, especially East of the Hudson River, but that’s the risk you take in order to get the strongest dynamics onshore. I don't think west trend is good for some of us, the runs overnight shown here and the info from Mt Holly are not encouraging, though you are ok it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Crankyweatherguy has a nice explanation of storm's evolution and models' difficulty rendering it. Basically, many models are not handling the occlusion correctly, which leads to an innacuate thermal forecast. Resulting in more rain and less snow along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Metasequoia said: Crankyweatherguy has a nice explamation of storm's evolution and models' difficulty rendering it. Basically, many models are not handling the occlusion correctly, which leads to an innacuate thermal forecast. Resulting in more rain and less snow along the coast. Wait, the models are overpredicting rain or snow? in other words, the inaccurate thermal forecast causes the model to show more rain, or more snow? This matters.....if he is even right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Wait, the models are overpredicting rain or snow? in other words, the inaccurate thermal forecast causes the model to show more rain, or more snow? This matters.....if he is even right... What I believe he is trying to say is that some of lesser snow amounts that are being depicted are the result of the BL temps being to warm and they should be colder. Correct me if I am wrong please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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