Tornadocane Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I don't need the Euro to tell me that thundersnow is going to happen. Gonna be a large area where its possible: Eastern PA, NJ, NYC Metro, Rockland and Suffern NY, CT, RI, and SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Less than 1000 J/kg is considered weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Convective Available Potential Energy its a measure of instability through the atmosphere as it pertains to updraft, usually for thunderstorms, or rain cooled downdrafts during thunderstorms The low would be rapidly strengthening as it passes the bench mark, so I would assume this is the timing of when the CAPE would occur? What specific feature allows this CAPE condition to occur? Is it just the bombogensis process in itself, or another unique situation that this storm has over lets say last weeks storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Meteoropoulos said: The low would be rapidly strengthening as it passes the bench mark, so I would assume this is the timing of when the CAPE would occur? What specific feature allows this CAPE condition to occur? Is it just the bombogensis process in itself, or another unique situation that this storm has over lets say last weeks storm? tightly wound dynamic and immense vertical motion, (rising and sinking air)....not your average well dispersed set up at 500 or 700, both lows close just off shore of NYC/Long island, id fully expect THundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: tightly wound dynamic and immense vertical motion, (rising and sinking air)....not your average well dispersed set up at 500 or 700, both lows close just off shore of NYC/Long island, id fully expect THundersnow Got it. Like last weeks storm where the low tracked west into the Atlantic once it was closed off, and that closing off intensity allowed for the vertical drop of just enough cold air to turn many to snow. Without that closing off, there just wouldn't have been enough cold air from the north, so it took it from directly above? Sorry, I am a LONG time lurker here and just trying to learn even more by actually posting. Lol. I REALLY appreciate all of the wonderful insight and knowledge that I have learned from here thought the last few years. Especially yourself UlsterCountySnowZ! I miss the days when you used to do the play by plays on those 2am EURO runs and all the other models. Dont see that as much around here anymore. I truly loved the small descriptive to the point posts as the frames were coming out, and jumped when I see the word, "crushed". I swear I had popcorn a couple of night. Lol Again, thanks for all you do and to the rest of the forum! Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Meteoropoulos said: Got it. Like last weeks storm where the low tracked west into the Atlantic once it was closed off, and that closing off intensity allowed for the vertical drop of just enough cold air to turn many to snow. Without that closing off, there just wouldn't have been enough cold air from the north, so it took it from directly above? Sorry, I am a LONG time lurker here and just trying to learn even more by actually posting. Lol. I REALLY appreciate all of the wonderful insight and knowledge that I have learned from here thought the last few years. Especially yourself UlsterCountySnowZ! I miss the days when you used to do the play by plays on those 2am EURO runs and all the other models. Dont see that as much around here anymore. I truly loved the small descriptive to the point posts as the frames were coming out, and jumped when I see the word, "crushed". I swear I had popcorn a couple of night. Lol Again, thanks for all you do and to the rest of the forum! Pete Yea it was a lot of fun then... enjoy the snow, we’re gonna get bombed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 EPS mean and control are nearly step in step... that used to mean during these kinda storms.. you can lock it in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: EPS mean and control are nearly step in step... that used to mean during these kinda storms.. you can lock it in.. The last storm was pretty much up in the air until kickoff, this one has incredible model consensus 24 hours out. And that is some task for a storm looking to dump a foot of snow for so many. You just never know. If the 6z NAM comes in looking good to start the AM model suite, then I will feel more confident. But we all know the 12z runs will be the real icing on the cake. Would you agree, I cant remember the last time a storm for 12"+ had an across the board model consesus 24 hours out? There was always at least one party pooper in the suite that had to keep us on edge a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Meteoropoulos said: The last storm was pretty much up in the air until kickoff, this one has incredible model consensus 24 hours out. And that is some task for a storm looking to dump a foot of snow for so many. You just never know. If the 6z NAM comes in looking good to start the AM model suite, then I will feel more confident. But we all know the 12z runs will be the real icing on the cake. Would you agree, I cant remember the last time a storm for 12"+ had an across the board model consesus 24 hours out? There was always at least one party pooper in the suite that had to keep us on edge a bit. Seeing the ukmet as amped up, and the NMM members amped ( a rare thing) Im leaning that even the 00z euro was underdone...the moisture fetch is prime, no dry air, H5 closed just SE of the city, same with 700, the vertical velocity and frontogenisis being advertised on meso models is hard to ignore... Hi Res Rgem would be an HECS with unbelievable frontogenic Banding droping nearly 3-5” per hour snow rates for a prolonged period of more than 4-5 hours ( insane I know). Nam not far behind it, and it’s 3k brother that went absolutely nuts with the convective banding velocity at 700, setting someone up for some insane banding and rates again. GFS is notoriously bad at thermodynamics and banding/ EC cyclogenisis, and frontogen adv... and the euro has been playing catch-up with us whole time (kinda sad I know), Euro is unable to capture the split lobe confluence coming down into the trough and correctly correlated into or elongate it into our main Main ULL...my money is on NAM/RGEM combo, subtract a bit of the insane amounts displayed, and you have a nice 8-12 and 12-18 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Srefs increases again edit: upon zooming in. It appears the NW burbs increased but city went down a bit, a bit of a NW tick but noise imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Looks like the NAM 32K at hour 15 has precip more northeast of 00z run. Thoughts? Nevermind, its about the same. Maybe a tad behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Srefs increases again edit: upon zooming in. It appears the NW burbs increased but city went down a bit, a bit of a NW tick but noise imo Agreed. Windshield wiper effect at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Nam 32K at hour 21, precip knocking on NYC's door. Precip looking juiced up down south as compared to 00z same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Hour 27, snow over NYC, NJ, LI, western CT. Seems colder this run compared to 00z. No mixing on LI coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Better heights along the EC And better trough orientation relative to 00z will allow more precip to extend west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1pm heavy snow for all except E Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Excuse me Ulster, this is literally my first "play by play" if you will. Please correct me if I am not seeing anything correctly. Just trying to learn here with a side by side comp on the 6z to 00z. Let me know when it's time for me to kill it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Did the low stall at hour 39? It is much more west than 00z. Is this a sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Meteoropoulos said: Did the low stall at hour 39? It is much more west than 00z. Is this a sign? Pivot process, so In a way yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Hour 45, low is a bit more west over 00z. Low right under eastern LI. Snow still falling further west into all of NJ You were right Ulster, precip made it more west, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 City/LI cutting it real close on the 06z 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 We're really on that razors edge where often some of the heaviest snowfall rates occur. I think the track is mostly set in stone but there's room for a few ticks that can make or break places right on that edge. Anyone just west of the city is pretty much locked in for a foot or more, it's a lot more sketchy right near the city and just S/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 warnings should start flying soon with the 4am package 6-12” locally more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We're really on that razors edge where often some of the heaviest snowfall rates occur. I think the track is mostly set in stone but there's room for a few ticks that can make or break places right on that edge. Anyone just west of the city is pretty much locked in for a foot or more, it's a lot more sketchy right near the city and just S/E. Like the other guy said, we're all safe for 6"+ and that's all you can really ask for this time of the year- especially with another, possibly even bigger storm coming the following week. From what I can see, NYC right to the south shore of Nassau is good for 6" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Winter storm warning for NYC 6-12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Winter Storm Warning here for 7-10" of snow w/localized amounts up to 13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 City/LI cutting it real close on the 06z 3k NAMIf it comes in as close as what the NAM shows, long Island will go to heavy rain and then dry slot. Likewise, the LP would transverse li of that were to materialize and last March would yet again replay. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 WSW 10-15 for me. I really hope I have power back before it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6z gfs follows suit of Nam. Significant jog west. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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