Tornadocane Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Eh, that's when she scoots east. I'm more worried about the mid levels and how far N she comes. Just be happy with your 6" of snow. Anything above that is just gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: The surface at NYC on the Ukie is a bit warm. Nah 528 - 4 under those rates , you go to 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Stay in the cold sector and it's a Crippling Blizzard / must stay all snow. Good luck to those who do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, Tornadocane said: Just be happy with your 6" of snow. Anything above that is just gravy. It's March, and we're playing with the house's money. I see no compelling reason to be sated by 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Euro looks west compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Eh, that's when she scoots east. I'm more worried about the mid levels and how far N she comes. Luckily it's a small, tightly wound circulation so I don't think the mid levels will get torched far from the center. It's a case where if you're just north of the low, you'll do fine. If this was a more typical coastal low, then we'd all be torching and raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 CrushedCan someone say... Blizzard? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Pretty much safe to say that NYC is gonna get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wow. Good Lord. Looks to reach about Ocean City NJ before heading ENE. That's absolutely what we need to keep the cold air around. Nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Crushed How does the rain/snow line look for central jersey? The other 0z models have me worried... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 I have a strong dislike for these but I know many love them so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: I have a strong dislike for these but I know many love them so... Wow wayyy colder than the other models. This is one tough forecast for central jersey could be 2-4” or 12”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wow. Good Lord. Looks to reach about Ocean City NJ before heading ENE. That's absolutely what we need to keep the cold air around. Nuke. Yes. Perfect track. If this can stay a bit further south than Atlantic City (or Ocean City) and then move towards BM from there.. The entire area is going to be absolutely crushed. Not to mention from Ocean City this looks to move relatively slowly. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I’m not sure model agreement could get any better than where things are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's March, and we're playing with the house's money. I see no compelling reason to be sated by 6". I play with house money all the time. My advice. Just go home. Keep the money. You'll have won. The poster is ese of Manhatten. lol. Just be happy! At this point. We know what's on the table. Everything north and west of the hudson and near or N or west of the Bronx is going to get slammed. Everything around Manhatten is in this murky 7-14" zone. S and East is looking at 4-10". That's where we are at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Please correct me if I’m wrong but based on the euro wind forecast that would call for a Blizzard warning for most on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Please correct me if I’m wrong but based on the euro wind forecast that would call for a Blizzard warning for most on this forum.The Euro, verbatim, is a Blizzard for all of this subforum. Edit: save perhaps Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 After seeing the 00z model runs this is a 10-15" snowfall w/locally higher amounts possible for most of the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Why is the GFS always late to join the party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: The Euro, verbatim, is a Blizzard for all of this subforum. Edit: save perhaps Montauk. Winds support that? Don’t have access to model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 This could be disastrous for much of N NJ. Heavy wet snow + wind + recent wind damage. There are many NJ residents still without power (my county alone had nearly 50% of home without power). I suspect NWS may hoist blizzard warnings by tomorrow afternoon's package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 If you’re central NJ get ready for shoveling. I’m in LI and although the euro is a great run, mixing issues always worry me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 @Enigma Not just northern NJ. My area still looks like a war zone and there are still over 5k accounts in my town alone without power and I'm one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro 850s and 925 temps look plenty cold except maybe Montauk briefly. 700 and 850 lows go south of us. Again, we're saved by the low scooting east once it hits the Cape May area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I would not be excited for a BS storm. If you lived West of the Hudson river in NJ this is not a BS storm. This is could be a 14-24" thump from Northern Somerset County NJ to New London CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 The Euro has some surfaced based cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro has some surfaced based cape What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro has some surfaced based cape fairly weak CAPE, but there non the less, gonna be awesome to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, David-LI said: What does this mean? Convective Available Potential Energy its a measure of instability through the atmosphere as it pertains to updraft, usually for thunderstorms, or rain cooled downdrafts during thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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