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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted

GFS soundings also will underestimate dynamic cooling because of the model resolution / parameterization.  It’s not going to pick up on the mesoscale lift, and will underestimate the cooling effect of melting precip because it can’t model convective banding.

 

 

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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted

Also will likely underestimate the ageostrophic flow for a tightly wound system.

 

but other than that the sounding is dead on balls accurate.

 

ps, even if it is accurate that’s a snow sounding.  Wet snow,  but snow.

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weatherbear5

weatherbear5

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

um yeah...been doing this a while...

Didn't mean to come across as condescending, if I did so I apologize. Overall though, that is probably Snow, maybe mixed with a bit of rain but predominantly snow.

in terms of the rest of the storm, CMC looks nice for a large part of the forum

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weatherlogix

weatherlogix

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

Didn't mean to come across as condescending, if I did so I apologize. Overall though, that is probably Snow, maybe mixed with a bit of rain but predominantly snow.

in terms of the rest of the storm, CMC looks nice for a large part of the forum

no worries.

 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I don't think this is that kind of category, and anyway last year was supposed to be historic  and well, ya know....superstorm March 93 sleeted for hours, that kept us under a foot, but yeah it was a big daddy of a storm nonetheless. This puppy isn't in the category of those storms. What can we do about it anyway?

Your impossible 12”+ March storm is incomming. You look to be in a good spot for this one. The only area that will struggle is way down on the Jersey shore and eastern LI. The biggest totals of well over a foot will be in areas above 500’ NW and NE of the city where ratios will be better do to colder temps. The extreme SS aka jm. May struggle for a bit too

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Tornadocane

Tornadocane

Posted
Posted

OMG I wish this event was happening up in Paramus when I lived up there.  The models are going to bust on the high side.  Cold air is readily available.  This event is most likely going to start at 3-4 am for NYC west and last for 30 hours - 16 hours of which is going to feature 1-4 inches of snow.  Someone is going to lollipop in the 24+" range around central northern New Jersey through the Hudson Valley into Connecticut.  That primary low is pulling subtropical moisture into cold air

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your impossible 12”+ March storm is incomming. You look to be in a good spot for this one. The only area that will struggle is way down on the Jersey shore and eastern LI. The biggest totals of well over a foot will be in areas above 500’ NW and NE of the city where ratios will be better do to colder temps. The extreme SS aka jm. May struggle for a bit too

Hey, I never said impossible.....there was March 1888 ya know....and 8 other storms IIRC over a 100 year period....still don't think it will be a foot though. Will wear a weenie hat if it is...

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your impossible 12”+ March storm is incomming. You look to be in a good spot for this one. The only area that will struggle is way down on the Jersey shore and eastern LI. The biggest totals of well over a foot will be in areas above 500’ NW and NE of the city where ratios will be better do to colder temps. The extreme SS aka jm. May struggle for a bit too

We’re definitely not out of the woods down here for a last minute warm trend. So far so good on the guidance but the coast is still cutting it close. The GFS has the 700/850 low crossing right off the beach. 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
According the SNE thread the CMC at 48 hours crushes this area...

Yes it does. The CMC would give most of us some of the most intense rates we have ever seen. It is essentially tropical convection in the form of snow.

 

Though at first glance, it may not be quite the rates the 3k Nam is progging for some areas.

 

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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Tornadocane

Tornadocane

Posted
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Just now, USCG RS said:

Yes it does. The CMC would give most of us some of the most intense rates we have ever seen. It is essentially tropical convection in the form of snow.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Yes.  Yes.  Its literally pullling subtropical moisture into the area while arctic air is sitting a couple thousand feet above the area.  The great lakes primary low is pulling the coastal low towards NE NJ and, all of a sudden, the West Atlantic low saves the day by pulling the low ENE toward Nantucket. 

 

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Ericjcrash

Ericjcrash

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Yes it does. The CMC would give most of us some of the most intense rates we have ever seen. It is essentially tropical convection in the form of snow.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

4-6"/hr. No biggie. Lol could've been 80 the day before and if those rates verified roads would be in shambles.

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Tornadocane

Tornadocane

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

4-6"/hr. No biggie. Lol could've been 80 the day before and if those rates verified roads would be in shambles.

Its March.  The cold air isn't that cold.  1-4" (2-4" during the heaviest part) is gonna happen.  I'll guaran-damn-tee thundersnow.  But it ain't gonna pile up at 6" an hour. 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
4-6"/hr. No biggie. Lol could've been 80 the day before and if those rates verified roads would be in shambles.

I live out in Suffolk and experienced the full wrath of Nemo (Feb 2013 blizzard). I remember working an ems shift and seeing over six inches of snow on William Floyd after approximately 80 min. This storm (VERBATIM on the rgem and 3k Nam) could not only be more widespread with those types of snows, it could potentially surpass the rates. That's - from an emergency manager perspective - rather disconcerting if I'm being honest.

 

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

I live out in Suffolk and experienced the full wrath of Nemo (Feb 2013 blizzard). I remember working an ems shift and seeing over six inches of snow on William Floyd after approximately 80 min. This storm (VERBATIM on the rgem and 3k Nam) could not only be more widespread with those types of snows, it could potentially surpass the rates. That's - from an emergency manager perspective - rather frightening if I'm being honest.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

We weren't supposed to see much from Nemo out my way, and we ended up getting some heavy bands for some reason and wound up with a general 6-8+ with CP doing 11 I think.

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