winterwarlock Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 wasnt there a storm last year in mid march that they forecasted 18-24 inches in central jersey..I only got 5....is there any similarity to this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You weenies are a whoot, the GFS looks like the rest of the guidance. Which is right on the edge. Obviously I'd love to lock in the RGEM, but it's March and borderline for a while mid storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 GFS looks like its rain from NYC east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Been getting colder run to run here on the Island as well. Yes... This looks like Nassau (and at last western suffolk) is in for a really hard hit. It appears that the storm will be really tight, perhaps the fire hose can be mutedSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The low has trended westward somewhat on the 0Z models, but the only model that has somewhat concerning mid level temps for the immediate NYC metro is the 3k NAM and thats only for a short period of time. The rest of the models are decently cold throughout the levels of the atmosphere. Out towards the central Long Island it may be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 CMC crushes the NYC metro area. Low goes northeast just east of SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Ace said: The low has trended westward somewhat on the 0Z models, but the only model that has somewhat concerning mid level temps for the immediate NYC metro is the 3k NAM and thats only for a short period of time. The rest of the models are decently cold throughout the levels of the atmosphere. Out towards the central Long Island it may be a different story. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, hooralph said: does this sounding look like snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: GFS looks like its rain from NYC east Low resolution, city verbatim looks close but fine, LI more iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: It's not at all um, yes it is. 925 (even higher is above freezing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ace said: The low has trended westward somewhat on the 0Z models, but the only model that has somewhat concerning mid level temps for the immediate NYC metro is the 3k NAM and thats only for a short period of time. The rest of the models are decently cold throughout the levels of the atmosphere. Out towards the central Long Island it may be a different story. the GFS is not decently cold - Im not saying its right...just pointing out what its showing for Queens/Nassau etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Low resolution, city verbatim looks close but fine, LI more iffy. that "low resolution" model did pretty good on temp profiles last week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC crushes the NYC metro area. Low goes northeast just east of SNJ. based off of the B&W's it look like a 60mm is close to the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: does this sounding look like snow? That could be snow. Basically the warm layer is below about 940 mb as it looks to me like the parcel temp intersects the 0 line just below 1/2 way between the 850 and 1000mb level. Probably rain/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: the GFS is not decently cold - Im not saying its right...just pointing out what its showing for Queens/Nassau etc I have a hard time putting any sort of weight on the GFS thermals from 925mb downward, but you do make a valid point that they should be considered. We'll see how things evolve over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: the GFS is not decently cold - Im not saying its right...just pointing out what its showing for Queens/Nassau etc It does look slightly warmer at 850 than last run, and the 700/850 low tracks are close. Would probably be snow for most but close on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: That could be snow. Basically the warm layer is below about 940 mb as it looks to me like the parcel temp intersects the 0 line just below 1/2 way between the 850 and 1000mb level. Probably rain/snow mix that verbatim isnt even white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 With that wind direction there is no chance the boundary layer is that warm. Even last week in a worse air mass it was 34-35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 38 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: This seems a good time to remind everyone that it sleeted in NYC during, among other storms, 1996 and PDII. For Chrissake if you lose .2 of QPF to sleet and you get 1.3” of QPF as snow, you’re still freakin buried. I don't think this is that kind of category, and anyway last year was supposed to be historic and well, ya know....superstorm March 93 sleeted for hours, that kept us under a foot, but yeah it was a big daddy of a storm nonetheless. This puppy isn't in the category of those storms. What can we do about it anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: does this sounding look like snow? yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: With that wind direction there is no chance the boundary layer is that warm. Even last week in a worse air mass it was 34-35 I heard that line 100 times last week...im still waiting for my 9" of snow every model promised me other than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: With that wind direction there is no chance the boundary layer is that warm. Even last week in a worse air mass it was 34-35 Yeah we've discussed the gfs thermal problems quite a bit recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: yes. explain please (i would like to learn). The warm layer seems pretty thick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Does anyone have any GGEM maps (other than the B&W's)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: that verbatim isnt even white rain You know the 0c line is skewed diagonally to the right, not vertical, right? It's below 0c above about 940-950mb, above freezing below that. That's not a terribly thick warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: I heard that line 100 times last week...im still waiting for my 9" of snow every model promised me other than the GFS It busted really bad. It had 42-44 and it was probably 34 on average in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: does this sounding look like snow? Could definitely be snow. Lowest levels above freezing have a northeast flow. What is the surface pressure at this time? Is 1000mb the surface? And, its should be noted that the pasted graphic has a note in the lower right that the "best guess precip type" is Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It busted really bad. It had 42-44 and it was probably 34 on average in the metro area. fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: explain please (i would like to learn). The warm layer seems pretty thick... the 700-925mb layer is sufficiently cold and the boundary layer sufficiently (but incorrectly) dry that most flakes wouldn't melt, especially considering that decent omegas and really nice lapse rates aloft suggest heavy/convective precip rates. their algorithm also guesses it as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: the 700-925mb layer is sufficiently cold and the boundary layer sufficiently (but incorrectly) dry that most flakes wouldn't melt, especially considering that decent omegas and really nice lapse rates aloft suggest heavy/convective precip rates. their algorithm also guesses it as snow. Thank you for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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