jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: Where are you concerned about a significant amount of sleet? This doesn't strike me as a sleet kinda storm... doesn't really strike me as any kind of ice kinda storm. The only warm layer is at the surface, save for initially on the 3K NAM where there's. Bit of a sneaky warm layer. seems to me it rain, snow or some mix thereof Purdue mentioned thicknesses, that’s a good place to start. High thicknesses over 540 mean there’s often a warm layer somewhere that can cause sleet. Otherwise you have to look at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, Enigma said: 00z NAM erily similar to Dec 2000 snowstorm. I described it today as a combo of December 2000 and what was supposed to happen on 12/15/89. The general setup 500 is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Icon coming in closer to the coast. Maps are tough to make out but to my eyes the coast looks taint. Waiting for snow map. Looms like NAM us no longer the western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Icon coming in closer to the coast. Maps are tough to make out but to my eyes the coast looks taint. Waiting for snow map. Looms like NAM us no longer the western outlier. Can anyone vouch for the performance of the ICON? I have noticed that it tends to be amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 RGEM snow map gives NYC 15 and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just because its mixed precip. does not mean it can't accumulate. Last March my town sleeted hard with the snow and still got 9.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ace said: Can anyone vouch for the performance of the ICON? I have noticed that it tends to be amped. Not sure but it's much further west than even the nam. It hugs the coast up to about toms river before going east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ace said: Can anyone vouch for the performance of the ICON? I have noticed that it tends to be amped. I would give it the least weight of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ace said: Can anyone vouch for the performance of the ICON? I have noticed that it tends to be amped. I’ve noticed the same thing on most of the events this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: RGEM snow map gives NYC 15 and still snowing. In fairness the 3k and RGEM maps are identical. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: RGEM snow map gives NYC 15 and still snowing. Still a big hit for NYC west. LI has some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Icon coming in closer to the coast. Maps are tough to make out but to my eyes the coast looks taint. Waiting for snow map. Looms like NAM us no longer the western outlier. 4-8 still on the German for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Still a big hit for NYC west. LI has some issues. All of LI or just Suffolk on East. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Just because its mixed precip. does not mean it can't accumulate. Last March my town sleeted hard with the snow and still got 9.5 inches. This is true, but areas at sea level tainted for most of the storm. I think we had 5 inches or less. A mess with all that sleet and very dangerous ( I got stuck ) but a sleet storm is a lot less to plow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, sferic said: All of LI or just Suffolk on East. ? Suffolk eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 4-8 still on the German for the area The amounts seem to be going down.....don't know how good that model is. German products are usually very good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ace said: Can anyone vouch for the performance of the ICON? I have noticed that it tends to be amped. It's playing catch up imo. Just two runs ago it barely had much for western edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Purdue mentioned thicknesses, that’s a good place to start. High thicknesses over 540 mean there’s often a warm layer somewhere that can cause sleet. Otherwise you have to look at soundings. Thicknesses are pretty low, especially city westward. I do see the warm layer around 850mb so It's not inconceivable for some sleet I guess particularly in and around the south shore and eastern LI, but otherwise unless models are drastically underdoing the WAA (which, granted they do have a tendency to do) it seems to me that most areas stay below freezing in the mid levels during the height of the storm... I could certainly be wrong however, wouldn't be the first time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 This seems a good time to remind everyone that it sleeted in NYC during, among other storms, 1996 and PDII. For Chrissake if you lose .2 of QPF to sleet and you get 1.3” of QPF as snow, you’re still freakin buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z RGEM is amazing for the interior... Taints & dry slots city eastward HUH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: HUH? Yeah, RGEM is IDENTICAL to 3km NAM albeit 850s are a bit more favorable. QPF bomb but very borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: HUH? Yeah, to me the RGEM looked better overall than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Goodness the NAM and RGEM were just odd tonight each in their own way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I noticed both nam 3k and rgem kinda stall the low just south of Islip could that be a trend if that’s the case we could get 2 feet here and it crushes us nyc folks. This is a coastal storm so I expect this to jackpot in and around nyc and as far as yanks and as north as animal. islip May taint for a bit but because of dynamics and cold enough air I think nyc stays all snow and becomes crippling blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: HUH? Don’t think 10:1 maps mean that much in general for this storm. Gotta take that down some at least for Nyc and immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3rd run in a row jackpotting the city. even with 5:1 ratios that's double digits. best guess is average of 7-8:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: 3rd run in a row jackpotting the city. even with 5:1 ratios that's double digits. best guess is average of 7-8:1. ....and that look wetter then the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 GFS slightly more tucked. Way too close for comfort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS slightly more tucked. Way too close for comfort... As it’s been said sometimes you have to smell the rain to get the heaviest snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 3rd run in a row jackpotting the city. even with 5:1 ratios that's double digits. best guess is average of 7-8:1. Been getting colder run to run here on the Island as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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