SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: Definitely a west lean there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Definitely a west lean there. Yep, as reflected on the ensemble mean being west of the op (with precip centered around 95 and not the coast, which is good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Really looks similar to 12/30/00 on some of the guidance overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Really looks similar to 12/30/00 on some of the guidance overnight. As long as it doesn't look like March 2001 Fast moving system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 Pretty good look on the gfs. Forget the temps and the precip/precip type depiction here. Takes a good surface track. A few issues though. I would like of the 500mb low closed further south. 700mb low track is in pretty good spot for a lot the metro area but ideally I would like that to be tighter by hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Pretty good look on the gfs. Forget the temps and the precip/precip type depiction here. Takes a good surface track. A few issues though. I would like of the 500mb low closed further south. 700mb low track is in pretty good spot for a lot the metro area but ideally I would like that to be tighter by hr 96 Good observation man. I was just reviewing the 6z gfs as well and it is formidable for the Upton, Albany and Boston WFO’s. They are all honking as well this morning. I know some might see my location as Salem, VA, but I lived in CT for 25 years and will be up Wed-Sun, so naturally I am super stoked to have a potential as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: 0z Euro will have snowfall melting issues again near the coast if the mid 30's temps verify during the day in March. I think the temps will be lower than depicted. The storm that just passed the Euro had us in the upper 30's to low 40's, I had 34-35 all day the problem was all the rain that accumulated and a much warmer ground combines with a crappy airmass. Totally different this time. Expect temps around 32-33 even in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 just still looks too warm out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro had a cold bias with the temps Friday. But it was pretty close on the SWFE event a few weeks ago where the coast also had melting issues even when it was at night. Remember, those snowfall maps are not too good with a milder BL. It looks to me like a decent portion of the event may be in the evening anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I don’t like this setup. You have a very compact system and still marginal temps. The heavy snow will fall under a relatively narrow area, and it’s impossible to know exactly where that sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro had a cold bias with the temps Friday. But it was pretty close on the SWFE event a few weeks ago where the coast also had melting issues even when it was at night. Remember, those snowfall maps are not too good with a milder BL. Isn't this also a fast moving system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I don’t like this setup. You have a very compact system and still marginal temps. The heavy snow will fall under a relatively narrow area, and it’s impossible to know exactly where that sets up. It’s going to be pretty similar to 12/30/00. I think because we are in a different world now with east coast storms it’s going to bomb much faster than that storm did. Overall though that storm produced big snows over a fairly small area as far as a west-east gradient. Not as much north-south and we probably see that with this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Getting a later start to the storm would be the best way to accumulate more with marginal temps. Not a big fan of mid 30's with a March sun angle. Our better March marginal temp wet snow events at the coast began at night like March 1999. How did April 2003 ever happen lol and that was an all day snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the 0z guidance had the heaviest precip falling during Wednesday afternoon before tapering down at night. I figured as much, looks like a 12 hour event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: I figured as much, looks like a 12 hour event It’s not necessarily a fast mover as much as it’s a Miller B. It’s rare you see one of those be much more than a 12 hour event. And if it is it’s not by a whole lot because the system rarely develops much south of VA and it’s not mature yet so precip won’t already be in here when the low is off VA or the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s not necessarily a fast mover as much as it’s a Miller B. It’s rare you see one of those be much more than a 12 hour event. And if it is it’s not by a whole lot because the system rarely develops much south of VA and it’s not mature yet so precip won’t already be in here when the low is off VA or the Delmarva. But if we had some major blockage it could have stalled and extended for longer. I remember we've had storms stall SE of Long Island and create extended periods of snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Plenty of cold available that winter into the spring. That storm had 30/28 at JFK during the daytime in April. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KJFK/2003/4/7/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Thats amazing, no wonder we were the local area jackpot with 6-8" of snow. I think you got over a half foot of snow even down in Long Beach with that one, Chris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 In some winters, very cold is "normal". This isn't one of those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s going to be pretty similar to 12/30/00. I think because we are in a different world now with east coast storms it’s going to bomb much faster than that storm did. Overall though that storm produced big snows over a fairly small area as far as a west-east gradient. Not as much north-south and we probably see that with this as well. That storm dropped a foot or more in parts of the area... you really think it’s going to be similar to that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: December through April 2003 was the coldest at JFK since 1977 and 1978. Yes in some ways that winter beat 1995-96 around here. It was colder and the best storm of the winter dropped more snow and the last storm of the season was superior for us in western Long Island. We had a weird cold but dry March but if we had gotten lucky a couple of times like we did in March 1996 we could have exceeded 1995-96 in snowfall that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, 02-03 was arguably our greatest winter of the 2000's decade. Another thing I've been thinking about- is the fact that we got this late season -NAO block possibly a sign that next winter could have a predominantly neg NAO? And would getting a late season snowstorm also be a sign that we might have an el nino next winter? I know some have found correlations to that, though there are cases where it doesn't work out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: 0z Euro will have snowfall melting issues again near the coast if the mid 30's temps verify during the day in March. That’s before the storm is underway. The heaviest precip looks to arrive closer to sundown and continue overnight. And there are mid thirties in the interior on that map...so I don’t see it as a function of being near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storm gets underway in the morning giving the temps a chance to rise more than forecast before it begins. The Euro Has mid 30's for Long Island right into the evening. Which is fine when precip falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Plumes have 3.78 for LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storm gets underway in the morning giving the temps a chance to rise more than forecast before it begins. The coldest Euro temps don't arrive until the storm is almost over. Has mid 30's for Long Island right into the evening. Those temps you posted are from 1pm Wednesday. The storm gets cranking for the coast later in the day. The guidance is in lockstep there. And to say “more than forecast” is premature, what’s the “forecast” you are referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: That was the 7pm temps I posted. Several EPS members are warmer. You had originally posted 1 pm temps. And 34 is fine for accumulating snows. Shows the temp dropped during the storm and will drop further as the storm moves east. I’m not sure what your concern is honestly. people are looking for a January storm in March. It doesn’t make any sense to me. Yes it’s warmer in March than January, but 34 and heavy snow in the evening in March is just fine and temps will continue to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Has 34-36 for much of the event which is OK for a grass and car topper. The P-types are also switching between rain and snow for Long Island. But the track is bound to shift in later runs so this was just one OP run. Eps is milder and less snowy for Long Island than the OP. I consider grass and car toppers a win in March. Give me 4” of wet snow on the grass and I’ll be content... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: We could use a less amped system in later runs so this doesn't move toward some of the milder tracks for Long Island in later runs. I like the trends so far. A bit more progressive and later to close off is better for the island. That’s what we have seen last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 hours ago, Enigma said: Screams SECS/MECS Nice little PNA spike to help matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 hours ago, USCG RS said: What about it dp you feel is incorrect? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk A very good met in the New England forum, coastalwx explained that the EPO is less important in March due to shortening wavelengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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