weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It ends up not being all that different unless you're down by Philly on southwest And a bit for the coast, as we lose some QPF to rain. We almost make up for it though once it flips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: So considerably worse Some of you need to let the damn run play out. Lose snow to taint early in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It ends up not being all that different unless you're down by Philly on southwestThere is blocking... It will be forced to phase essentially. The differences will be temperatures profiles initially and those on the southern fringes. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: NYC loses 2-4". North central nj picked up 2 so it evened out a bit. Either way just one run nothing to be concerned about yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Neblizzard said: Nam has 12-15 inches for NYC No it does not. Some of that will be sleet and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3k is also iffy for the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, snow1 said: No it does not. Some of that will be sleet and rain It shows 8-12 inches What's the problem with this run ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The run looks fine to me and would be a major event for most. There’ll be changes like this until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: 3k is also iffy for the City. It's fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The run looks fine to me and would be a major event for most. There’ll be changes like this until game time. Exactly. Some people just don’t know how to read models and they make senseless posts. It’s a significant storm for us with the most confined to New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: It's fine I don't like seeing 850s draped accross the boros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 3k is also iffy for the City. The 3K is like 15+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 some of you are ridiculous! its still a major snow fall. 6-12” with more to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's fine Why waste any QPF. I'd rather 15" than 9" with this much moisture around. Later onnthey crash but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I don't like seeing 850s draped accross the boros. Yeah, there's definitely a sneaky warm layer in there. Probably snow and sleet, maybe a bit of rain at the onset. Much warmer than previous runs at that level so we'll just have to watch it going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Could be better. Could be worse. No one wants to be in the jackpot 48 hrs out. This will change in the next 24 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: The 3K is like 15+" Living right on the edge. Right on it. 850s at 0 on a Screaming onshore wind is trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Let the rest of the 00z suite run, then after tomorrow's 12z runs we can say we have a handle on this for the most part. I think we are all excited as this has very good potential and like the seasoned experts here say, don't let a blip here in a specific model run sway you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Btw...check out historical 12 in. snow events in NYC and you will realize that in March, the odds are against 6+ in events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wth are people talking about here lol. The NAM were epic runs for NYC and NE and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The 3K is insane in Nassau and western Suffolk after 18z however. Yikes, throws convection into the area and the column cools resulting in ridiculous snow. Again, overall a good run. In and of itself a great run. For the coast we just see a bit of rain at the onset verbatim because it's a bit out of sync at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Some spoiled people in here.. 0z 3k NAM is weather porn for 99% in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Not throwing all my eggs in the NAM at all, just saying that's too close for comfort. Shades of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Living right on the edge. Right on it. 850s at 0 on a Screaming onshore wind is trouble. The 850 line drops south as the low gets cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Not throwing all my eggs in the NAM at all, just saying that's too close for comfort. Shades of last year. You worry all the time Relax =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Though the 18z run was a bit better for EPA and PHL, the 00z run was actually the best run yet for much of NJ/NYC/LI. 15-20” for many. Of course the jackpot zone will change run to run, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Not throwing all my eggs in the NAM at all, just saying that's too close for comfort. Shades of last year. But it's not like we're seeing a major westward trend. Last March it seemed like we kept trending west right up until the start of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Not throwing all my eggs in the NAM at all, just saying that's too close for comfort. Shades of last year. You do realize once the precip gets heavy itll cool the column and it’ll snow like a mf. Btw last years storm and this one are completely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 00z NAM erily similar to Dec 2000 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Congrats NYC on the 3k NAMming! Amazing run for you guys! I am jelly :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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