495weatherguy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I wouldn’t go more than 3-6” for our area right now. Too much potential for this to amp too much and have much of it be rain like last March. Hopefully tonight and tomorrow 12z lock a nice event in for us. I hope you are correct----this has the potential to be a very damaging storm on the heels one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Next person who posts the kma jma or australian without a gigantic "you are here" on KNYC is getting a 1 month almost solitary confinement. I say almost because the only thread youll be allowed to post in will only have you and snowman19 in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Oh and you are NW of that 1019mb "high" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 @BxEngine. Zoomed in the Korean. There's our storm and yes, we're still upside-down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 21z SREF mean has about 8.5-9 inches of snow at Both ISP and NYC. Slightly less at EWR. nvm, about the same at EWR still quite a large spread, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Been a while been a while..hopefully the models hold tight as we approach crunch time (new SREF looking great and a bit colder, I believe). I’ve decided to just browse the forums for the most part, and haven’t had much to contribute. Looking like 6-12” is very possible for most of us here! Enjoy the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 21z SREF 8-10 inches areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Snowman19 wants to be your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 21z SREF 8-10 inches areawide Significant bump up. WSW on deck at 4:50 or so long from Nassau west as there's no drastic fails at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Shouldnt the australian one be the one upside down? Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Shouldnt the australian one be the one upside down? Just sayin. I guess this map is upside down to australians lol. I wonder what the 00z nam will show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, ThatHurricane said: I guess this map is upside down to australians lol. I wonder what the 00z nam will show We'll see momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 33 minutes ago, Rjay said: Bx Engine .... What ever happened to the Geneva Convention and the "Cruel and Unusual Punishment" statutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Through 21 hours, a few changes to note on the 00z NAM at 500mb... slightly weaker ridging over the EC, slightly weaker ULL over NE Missouri, though there appears to be more energy on the western side giving it a more positive tilt look. A bit less interaction with the Canadian s/w though the placement is nearly identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The BoM model is a joke even among joke models. It's literally just the UKMET run at lower resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Through 30 at 500 mb. -trough axis stretching from eastern AR into western KY. Ever so slightly more positively tilted. Would theoretically argue for more digging further south moving forward. -slightly weaker ridging just off the EC. Looking over the past several runs, the 12z run appears to be a clear outlier with regards to how it handled that ridge, and thus was much to warm at the coast. nearly identical to 18z otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Definitely less amped thru 36. Lower QPF in the MA too thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The NAM is a mess, double barreled low. Still looks like a good storm but it’s obviously struggling at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Definitely less amped thru 36. Lower QPF in the MA too thus far. S/W just about to turn the corner at that point. Once it does, should get going rather quickly id imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I have to wonder if the NAM is going to have one its wonky runs like it usually does 24 hours or so before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: I have to wonder if the NAM is going to have one its wonky runs like it usually does 24 hours or so before a storm. Either way, worse off for most than 18z, maybe considerably so by completion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Looking good for Nyc metro and LI at hour 45-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Either way, worse off for most than 18z, maybe considerably so by completion. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 double barrel low off NJ coast makes it confusing and then it scoots east then NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4K is bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, snow1 said: This nam has more rain/snow for the coast Initially, yes. what happens is that the energy hangs back ever so slightly causing the whole thing to be slightly out of sync. The result is the storm gets going a bit later. The lighter rates early means less snow at the immediate coast, but it turns to heavy snow in the afternoon as the low really begins to get going. overall a step back from the 18z, but it's still not a terrible outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: Initially, yes. what happens is that the energy hangs back ever so slightly causing the whole thing to be slightly out of sync. The result is the storm gets going a bit later. The lighter rates early means less snow at the immediate coast, but it turns to heavy snow in the afternoon as the low really begins to get going. overall a step back from the 18z, but it's still not a terrible outcome It ends up not being all that different unless you're down by Philly on southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Thru 54 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: It ends up not being all that different unless you're down by Philly on southwest NYC loses 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 So considerably worse Some of you need to let the damn run play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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