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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Massive storm coming. Good luck all.

Starting to believe it; local media talking about it too. 88 CBS reporting this storm is colder than the last one and even the city could see "snow" while north and west...you know the rest. They will play it safe for now, can't blame them.

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9 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Thanks. I gather this storm is not as much elevation dependant as the last one, correct? I'm at about 1300'.

It will still be important and always is in late season storms. You will have better ratios and an easier time accumulating with cooler temps. I like your area over to Animal as the jackpot for this one. Maybe 18”

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Millennium storm was all snow here. Oceanside reported 16". 

This will be a tightly wound system so we won't need it to track too far offshore, but that one appeared to form a bit east of Hatteras, so when it came almost due north it stayed off the NJ coast and went in around the Twin Forks. So far this one looks to form a bit west of there and track north to just off ACY. What happens from there is key for the city/coast. It'll need to hook NE away from the coast. 

...if there is no hook NE we RAIN..especially me..gut is telling me we rain after a couple

of inches of slop..

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3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

What are your thoughts on accumulations? Any mixing issues?  NOAA forecast is saying some freezing rain early. That would be very bad with tree damage from Friday's storm.

Too early to say for sure but 8"+ looks very likely.    I would go 8-14" for your area as a first call.

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Next person who posts the kma jma or australian without a gigantic "you are here" on KNYC is getting a 1 month almost solitary confinement. I say almost because the only thread youll be allowed to post in will only have you and snowman19 in it. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, sferic said:

6 inches for NYC/LI would be nice; anything more would be great and given last Friday's disappointment for most this will make up for that.

I wouldn’t go more than 3-6” for our area right now. Too much potential for this to amp too much and have much of it be rain like last March. Hopefully tonight and tomorrow 12z lock a nice event in for us. 

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Pretty sick setup for very intense snowfall rates for potentially any part of the region.  It will come down to banding, just like in Feb. 2006.  That storm didn't look as impressive as this one in the run up.  But mesoscale factors and surface temperatures can sometimes be the difference between a plowable snowfall and an all-time record. 

It looked like the RGEM was still snowing at the end of its run. 

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Pretty sick setup for very intense snowfall rates for potentially any part of the region.  It will come down to banding, just like in Feb. 2006.  That storm didn't look as impressive as this one in the run up.  But mesoscale factors and surface temperatures can sometimes be the difference between a plowable snowfall and an all-time record. 

It looked like the RGEM was still snowing at the end of its run. 

RGEM looked sick.. hasn't been itself this season tho. 

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