Paragon Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: No effin way If that happens I'll personally finance that a wall be built to keep the ocean air out. I wonder how tall it would have to be? It'll help in the summer too to keep that annoying sea breeze away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: If that happens I'll personally finance that a wall be built to keep the ocean air out. I wonder how tall it would have to be? It'll help in the summer too to keep that annoying sea breeze away. It’s happened before and it will again. Barrier island blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: It’s happened before and it will again. Barrier island blues. Probably more likely in March anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: I'm surprised Upton went 2-6 inches of snow in Suffolk and 4-7 in Nassau despite the Euro and NAM coming in hot like that. It could very well verify, but I would have imagined they'd have waited for tonight's runs to make big changes to totals like that personally, I'm feeling more bullish, particularly for western Suffolk and Nassau counties I’m not at all surprised. They usually go with a blend of several models, take into account trends etc. I don’t think the Island sees the totals the current runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Paragon said: see Millenium storm, it tracked over Suffolk County but southern Nassau stayed all snow. The north shore stayed all snow from about Northport on west. We had an hour or two of rain here, but still managed just under a foot, including a little burst of snow at the end. I think all of Nassau stayed all snow. You could have drawn the all-snow area west of a line from roughly Northport to Lindenhurst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, strgazr27 said: I’m not at all surprised. They usually go with a blend of several models, take into account trends etc. I don’t think the Island sees the totals the current runs show. Well, considering the current runs show accumulations anywhere between about 0-20 inches IMBY, somewhere in that range will probably verify lol. in all seriousness though, that kind of range is on the table. The overall track is classic for a dum of snow on LI, assuming it doesn't gain too much latitude. If it doesn't and takes a track like the 12z Euro or 18z NAM then I would wager even their current 10% of higher snowfall totals would be in danger of busting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s happened before and it will again. Barrier island blues. True that... The joys of shore livn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 dec 2000 isn't a bad analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What's the forecast looking like for Central Ocean County.Any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: dec 2000 isn't a bad analog If I recall correctly I did well in that storm, had around 15" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 40 minutes ago, Paragon said: If that happens I'll personally finance that a wall be built to keep the ocean air out. I wonder how tall it would have to be? It'll help in the summer too to keep that annoying sea breeze away. Annoying sea breeze in summer? Are you nuts? That’s one of best things about living on LI. The only time it’s annoying is in early spring when it makes us damp cool and foggy. temps are going to marginal so areas with elevation will have the highest totals. So bassically anyone that had accumulating snow with the last storm can expect to jackpot. I could see allot of 18” type numbers in the jackpot zone. I like 8” for CPK right now. I’ll go with 5” for my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: The north shore stayed all snow from about Northport on west. We had an hour or two of rain here, but still managed just under a foot, including a little burst of snow at the end. I think all of Nassau stayed all snow. You could have drawn the all-snow area west of a line from roughly Northport to Lindenhurst. I lived in Lindenhurst for that storm. We did not see any rain from it, but we did dryslot for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 41 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s happened before and it will again. Barrier island blues. Nothing beat when the storm surge came in during March 93 and washed away the snow pack in the West End. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: If I recall correctly I did well in that storm, had around 15" here. Yup 14" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: dec 2000 isn't a bad analog Love it when you chime in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: No effin way Lol was just talking about the frame that was posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Annoying sea breeze in summer? Are you nuts? That’s one of best things about living on LI. The only time it’s annoying is in early spring when it makes us damp cool and foggy. temps are going to marginal so areas with elevation will have the highest totals. So bassically anyone that had accumulating snow with the last storm can expect to jackpot. I could see allot of 18” type numbers in the jackpot zone. I like 8” for CPK right now. I’ll go with 5” for my backyard I like really high temps in the summer lol, the sea breeze can come in after peak heating like after 4 PM (which is what usually happens here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Annoying sea breeze in summer? Are you nuts? That’s one of best things about living on LI. The only time it’s annoying is in early spring when it makes us damp cool and foggy. temps are going to marginal so areas with elevation will have the highest totals. So bassically anyone that had accumulating snow with the last storm can expect to jackpot. I could see allot of 18” type numbers in the jackpot zone. I like 8” for CPK right now. I’ll go with 5” for my backyard Almost sounds like last March's storm. I wonder what's going to happen with the storm after that- that's supposed to the biggest of the 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 32 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: If I recall correctly I did well in that storm, had around 15" here. One of my favorites. Amazing start to the 2000s...but then March 2001 and 01/02 happened. Also occurred after a big time 4-year lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Millennium storm was all snow here. Oceanside reported 16". This will be a tightly wound system so we won't need it to track too far offshore, but that one appeared to form a bit east of Hatteras, so when it came almost due north it stayed off the NJ coast and went in around the Twin Forks. So far this one looks to form a bit west of there and track north to just off ACY. What happens from there is key for the city/coast. It'll need to hook NE away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Point and click gives me 8-13” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Millennium storm was all snow here. Oceanside reported 16". This will be a tightly wound system so we won't need it to track too far offshore, but that one appeared to form a bit east of Hatteras, so when it came almost due north it stayed off the NJ coast and went in around the Twin Forks. So far this one looks to form a bit west of there and track north to just off ACY. What happens from there is key for the city/coast. It'll need to hook NE away from the coast. ::Fingers crossed:: One would think that the NATL blocking will play a big role on how it tracks as it gains latitude. Millennium storm bisected the forks, but how did the NATL look compared to now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Point and click gives me 8-13” here. lol 7-13” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The HRDPS which only goes out to 18z Wednesday has 6-9” for most already on the ground for many with many hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Point and click gives me 8-13” here. Your in a really great spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eduardo said: ::Fingers crossed:: One would think that the NATL blocking will play a big role on how it tracks as it gains latitude. Millennium storm bisected the forks, but how did the NATL look compared to now? There's really no 50-50 low near Newfoundland which would play a role in not letting ridging to the east dominate and allow a west/hugger track. It really all depends on where the trough axis is which would set where the low develops, and how much phasing there is between the northern and southern streams. We don't want too much too soon. And then, how fast do the upper lows close off, which would start it taking a more NE track. Eventually it will feel the influence of the blocking, but question is where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: There's really no 50-50 low near Newfoundland which would play a role in not letting ridging to the east dominate and allow a west/hugger track. It really all depends on where the trough axis is which would set where the low develops, and how much phasing there is between the northern and southern streams. We don't want too much too soon. And then, how fast do the upper lows close off, which would start it taking a more NE track. Eventually it will feel the influence of the blocking, but question is where. Honestly how many times do we have all the pieces in place? I would estimate it happens like 10% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Millennium storm was all snow here. Oceanside reported 16". This will be a tightly wound system so we won't need it to track too far offshore, but that one appeared to form a bit east of Hatteras, so when it came almost due north it stayed off the NJ coast and went in around the Twin Forks. So far this one looks to form a bit west of there and track north to just off ACY. What happens from there is key for the city/coast. It'll need to hook NE away from the coast. But we had some wiggle room with that as it didn't change over until you were in SW Suffolk. So even if that storm was 30 miles west it would've been okay for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I’m starting to think that 6”+ in NYC is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Massive storm coming. Good luck all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.