strgazr27 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: We are discussing based on the 18z NAM which shows at least a MECS, not an overall forescast. Fully aware of what’s being discussed. Even more reason the talk is out of place. It’s the NAM, more then 36 hours out at least. And mixing at/along the coast I’m pretty confident will be an issue. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This winter the 12K has been the best with most systems. Maybe the best model altogether but that’s inside 24-36 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, strgazr27 said: Fully aware of what’s being discussed. Even more reason the talk is out of place. It’s the NAM, more then 36 hours out at least. And mixing at/along the coast I’m pretty confident will be an issue. JMO NAM has done pretty well with the last big storms. It nailed January 2016 even at 48+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 ICON looks relatively unchanged for our region at least. Maybe a tick north and west, but still good for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Upton hasn't updated yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: ICON looks relatively unchanged for our region at least. Maybe a tick north and west, but still good for most. Its weird that it did trend closer to the coast, but kept the rain snow line offshore for the most part. Due to intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This winter the 12K has been the best with most systems. Maybe the best model altogether but that’s inside 24-36 Yeah, the 12z NAM run tomorrow should be pretty reliable with the Wed storm details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAM is basically identical to the GFS. Only difference is the NAM is picking up on the mesoscale "comma head" banding. A foot for the city looks pretty doable right now. Watch out for wraparound snow showers during the day on Thursday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 UPTON UPDATED: Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 416 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 CTZ007-009-010-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ071>075-176-178-061100- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0006.180307T0500Z-180308T1100Z/ Northern Middlesex-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Hudson- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Southern Queens- 416 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning and evening commutes on Wednesday. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 416 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-061100- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0006.180307T0500Z-180308T1100Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester- 416 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning and evening commutes on Wednesday. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 If the 500mb low closes off, decent snow will wrap around to the west and it won't just be all front end. It'll linger around as the low moves away. Don't just look at the surface panels-the upper air is more important. There is blocking with this storm. To me, it's not a matter of if it closes off, it's a matter of where. Unless we are dry slotted with a due north storm from snj, then we will get residual snow backside nSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Rpm 12-16 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: There is blocking with this storm. To me, it's not a matter of if it closes off, it's a matter of where. Unless we are dry slotted with a due north storm from snj, then we will get residual snow backside n Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk If the RGEM images above are correct u and I are getting a sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 We already got 2 feet with the last storm....so many still without power up here. and.... Storm #1 Wednesday Storm #2 Sunday night / Monday ( this one has superstorm potential) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Its weird that it did trend closer to the coast, but kept the rain snow line offshore for the most part. Due to intensity?It trended closer to the coast because of amplification. In turn, while closer, this means the heights crash to the coast simultaneously Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Upton updated 5-10 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: If the RGEM images above are correct u and I are getting a sleet storm. Have to watch as well for warm layers above 850mb. Doesn't look too big of a deal now but there was the zone right over the city on 3/14 last year with heavy sleet. Also I don't think that's sleet on the RGEM, that's rain snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Upton updated 5-10 for NYC 10" here, which I think is a smidge low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 So I have a friend with a flight out of Newark at 7am Wednesday. What are the chances of that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: It trended closer to the coast because of amplification. In turn, while closer, this means the heights crash to the coast simultaneously Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Have to watch as well for warm layers above 850mb. Doesn't look too big of a deal now but there was the zone right over the city on 3/14 last year with heavy sleet. Also I don't think that's sleet on the RGEM, that's rain snow mix. Yeah Rgem looks like a change over,verbatim of course. I know goose said this is a better set up than last March, however, Rgem also nailed last March. Edit : I can't type sometimes. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: So I have a friend with a flight out of Newark at 7am Wednesday. What are the chances of that happening? ZERO. Expect a closed EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Upton’s new map looks about what I’d go with. Could be a very nice event here but also still not out of the woods for mixing and dryslot. The best shot at heavy snow is just north and west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Yeah Rgem looks like a change over,verbatim of course. I know choose said thisva better set up than last March, however, Rgem also nailed last March. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Looks a little better upstream to force a quicker turn east, but besides that there are similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breene Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, DaveTinNY said: ZERO. Expect a closed EWR. I thought this was a morning wednesday start ? 7am I wouldn't think much is happening yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Breene said: I thought this was a morning wednesday start ? 7am I wouldn't think much is happening yet? 7am should still be ok, probably delays but then again it doesn't take much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: If the RGEM images above are correct u and I are getting a sleet storm. Actually it’s now out on TT and it’s just very heavy snow. Already 15 inches at hr 54 and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Gfs is a tick east but besides that no changes so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Gfs is virtually unchanged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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