Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: 4"-6" per hour rates there. My goodness. Yeah thunder snow will be a possibility for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: 4"-6" per hour rates there. My goodness. Yup, widespread 1-2' totals with lollies over 2 feet. A lot of NJ is over 2" of liquid all snow away from the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 32k and 12k NAM match up. 3K is the slightly closer outlier in the suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: 18z Hi res is tucked in and is a HECS for NYC. We'll see where the models settle out tomorrow for the exact details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: 18z Hi res is tucked in and is a HECS for NYC. Will have to disagree with you on this one, not a HECS as forecasted, even on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Yup, widespread 1-2' totals with lollies over 2 feet. A lot of NJ is over 2" of liquid all snow away from the beaches. NJ and others what do u think of Near the beaches or coast mixing or no problem,,,,lots of friends down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: A turn into SE NJ wouldnt normally be bad because the metro would initially get rocked. Then dry slot or rain then go back to heavy snow but the system undergoes somewhat of a semi occlusion on a bunch of the tucked guidance and the backside precip basically dies as the low pulls out across areas east of LI. I’m not sure that’s believable or not I was just thinking this last night. A lot of models seem to decay the low that sits along the coastline, because the most favorable baroclinic area is off to the east north east. Moreover, as the great lakes storm is absorbed into our coastal storm, its also being pulled east by the West Atlantic low pressure that affected the area last Thursday. If I were sitting across the Hudson in North New Jersey (including Bergen) or around Orangeburg NY/Yonkers, I would be extremely excited about the model runs today. There's a decent chance this is could be a MECS for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, David-LI said: Will have to disagree with you on this one, not a HECS as forecasted, even on the NAM. I hope you realize that when people refer to a storm, they aren't just talking about one specific area, but a KU, which covers all Northeast storms, including those that only hit DC or only hit Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yup, widespread 1-2' totals with lollies over 2 feet. A lot of NJ is over 2" of liquid all snow away from the beaches. Gonna go way out on a limb here: I think that's overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Dry slot is pissing me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I hope you realize that when people refer to a storm, they aren't just talking about one specific area, but a KU, which covers all Northeast storms, including those that only hit DC or only hit Boston. I do realize that and I still believe this wouldn't be considered a HECS as forecasted. There's no criteria that defines it but imo a HECS is a 1993 and 1996 type of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Dry slot is pissing me off. It's because the mid-level cyclones track over E LI and then up over the Cape, but you would still do well on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Which is more accurate 12k. 32k or 3k NAM. 12k and 32k are better for all including eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I hope you realize that when people refer to a storm, they aren't just talking about one specific area, but a KU, which covers all Northeast storms, including those that only hit DC or only hit Boston. Still not historic by any stretch. And at this point I’ll cut NAM totals in half. Still too early for any MECS or HECS talk, especially basing it off current model runs if one stays out of full weenie mode. See what the runs late tonight show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: I do realize that and I still believe this wouldn't be considered a HECS as forecasted. There's no criteria that defines it but imo a HECS is a 1993 and 1996 type of storms. Fair enough, those terms are thrown around too much, but it's hard to keep track when we seemingly have 1-2 KU's per year instead of 1 every three years if we were lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 For NYC and LI this would be a quick dump from around 10am to 6pm based on 18z NAM. Clear skies wednesday evening. 12+ still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, strgazr27 said: Still not historic by any stretch. And at this point I’ll cut NAM totals in half. Still too early for any MECS or HECS talk, especially basing it off current model runs if one stays out of full weenie mode. See what the runs late tonight show. The rule of cutting NAM totals in half doesn't apply to all situations. It's a common mistake that is over played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The mid level lows will decide where the dry slot goes. If the 700mb low goes south or east of you, you likely won't be in the dryslot, but besides that in storms like this there will always be heavier and lighter banding. So for now, root for that low to go east of you, and the surface low turn NE as it approaches south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, David-LI said: For NYC and LI this would be a quick dump from around 10am to 6pm based on 18z NAM. Clear skies wednesday evening. 12+ still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Fair enough, those terms are thrown around too much, but it's hard to keep track when we seemingly have 1-2 KU's per year instead of 1 every three years if we were lucky. 2 minutes ago, strgazr27 said: Still not historic by any stretch. And at this point I’ll cut NAM totals in half. Still too early for any MECS or HECS talk, especially basing it off current model runs if one stays out of full weenie mode. See what the runs late tonight show. We are discussing based on the 18z NAM which shows at least a MECS, not an overall forescast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Which is more accurate 12k. 32k or 3k NAM. 12k and 32k are better for all including eastern areas. This winter the 12K has been the best with most systems. Maybe the best model altogether but that’s inside 24-36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Interesting tidbit, from an old post but this still applies. Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits FollowFollow @TropicalTidbits More I've added a new snowfall product for the 3km NAM utilizing a rime-based snow/liquid ratio correction from Brad Ferrier. This greatly reduces bogus "snow" accumulations due to sleet, thus most relevant in warm regimes. SLR capped at 10:1. Comparison example from today's 18Z run: Look what happens: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I’ll take the 75-80% rate the NAM overdose totals and continue to cut them almost in half. Last week was a perfect example. Tack and intensity were pretty good. Utbyotals WAY off. I’ll stand by my call of cutting them in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 These March storms are often packed with moisture, somebody's getting destroyed in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: For NYC and LI this would be a quick dump from around 10am to 6pm based on 18z NAM. Clear skies wednesday evening. 12+ still. If the 500mb low closes off, decent snow will wrap around to the west and it won't just be all front end. It'll linger around as the low moves away. Don't just look at the surface panels-the upper air is more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Sorry I should have adder that was based on 3K simulated radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: This is a 15-18 hour event if you take the nam verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The mid level lows will decide where the dry slot goes. If the 700mb low goes south or east of you, you likely won't be in the dryslot, but besides that in storms like this there will always be heavier and lighter banding. So for now, root for that low to go east of you, and the surface low turn NE as it approaches south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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