NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Makes perfect sense honestly, the track is further East, in line with the rest of the guidance, but the precip shield is nice and expansive on the NW side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Makes perfect sense honestly, the track is further East, in line with the rest of the guidance, but the precip shield is nice and expansive on the NW side of the storm. Even the BL is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Closes off East of NJ instead of over land, makes all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Makes perfect sense honestly, the track is further East, in line with the rest of the guidance, but the precip shield is nice and expansive on the NW side of the storm. The closing off upper air lows should help throw back snow further west. Great run for everyone. Hopefully we see these amped west solutions on some ensembles move east and we narrow down to an offshore NJ track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Closes off East of NJ instead of over land, makes all the difference. The track we wanted to see ...onto 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 988 stalled south of Long Island? *insert mother of god gif* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Actual track of the SLP over 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Actual track of the SLP over 18 hours. That’s like the blizzard of 78 track where it closed off and performed a counter clockwise loop south of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Snow map for 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18z 12k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: That’s like the blizzard of 78 track where it closed off and performed a counter clockwise loop south of LI But its actually quicker moving than the last run. It clears most of the area by midnight now, earlier western zones. It also has a screw zone in between 2 max areas but I doubt that will remain the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: Because it was so right last week? Most weeks? Historically? The NAM IMO performed the best with the storm threat last Saturday. It was a bit too accumulation happy for certain areas, but it was the first model to pick up on the snow and the did great with track and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: 18z 12k nam What are those 15:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 and there is the obligatory 18Z NAM on crack runSynoptically, especially at h5, this run makes sense. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: What are those 15:1 ratios? 10..kuchera says 7 then 8-1 at peak so knock off 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3k is still tucked but shows a damn big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: But its actually quicker moving than the last run. It clears most of the area by midnight now, earlier western zones. It also has a screw zone in between 2 max areas but I doubt that will remain the case It's very rare to get a storm, especially a coastal storm that last more than 12 hours unless you get a strong block and some overrunning. Last Saturday's event was a perfect example of that, except for obviously we had no cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Please offer constructive comments or your post will be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3k @ 48 for CNJ is how I imagine heaven would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Winter Storm Watch just issued here for 3-6" of snow with localized amounts up to 13" near the I-95 corridor from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Nice loop off NJ coast on the 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 4"-6" per hour rates there. My goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Is that purple banding??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Interesting effect with the NAM is that 0z and 12z were more tucked near SNJ and 6z and 18z a little more east. Probably won't be resolved until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The 3k NAM is definitely snowier than 12z around the city. Looks like a slightly further east track but it's a little more amped than the 12k NAM. Seems like it also has a few low centers so it appears to jump around. The south shore looks like it probably rains for part of it when the low gets closest but there's back end snow when the temps cool back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3K NAM SLP TRACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, BlizzardNYC said: Is that purple banding??? The purple is 10mm-14mm PER HOUR. 4"-6" an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Weird look on the 3k, it’s having real trouble with the convection bouncing that Low around like that. I’d discount this one, the 12k seemed more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: Interesting effect with the NAM is that 0z and 12z were mire tucked near SNJ and 6z and 18z a little more east. 18z Hi res is tucked in and is a HECS for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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