sferic Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah I feel like Charlie Brown and Lucy, especially in March storms. We're two days out yet, lots to change. Hoping this one works out better. Went a little quiet here the last few mins maybe we're between important runs... In 1 hour 18z NAM comes out and it will light up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, Snow88 said: JMA looks like the Euro Looks wetter to me than the Euro, especially for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 15z SRFE mean shifted West from 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 So all the guidance shifted west. Some ensembles ride up the coast. Can this end up being a coastal runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 March of last year how tremendous hope for NYC/LI eased west as did heaviest snows, hope this isn't a repeat of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: March of last year how tremendous hope for NYC/LI eased west as did heaviest snows, hope this isn't a repeat of that. The EPS has a decent number of coastal hugger tracks that would likely be west enough to change us over and dryslot. I would temper expectations unless models like the NAM come east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: March of last year how tremendous hope for NYC/LI eased west as did heaviest snows, hope this isn't a repeat of that. I seem to have read about how the blocking would keep these storms ( the last one too ) from moving too far east ( which has been another problem ) but it seems now they are going west. When going east we seem to get less precip but its frozen, west its lots of precip but sleet and rain....or snow that doesn't accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: The EPS has a decent number of coastal hugger tracks that would likely be west enough to change us over and dryslot. I would temper expectations unless models like the NAM come east. Yeah my expectations are always tempered these days. This time of the year should favor inland areas. It's like you can see it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah my expectations are always tempered these days. This time of the year should favor inland areas. It's like you can see it coming. But the Blizzard of 1888 a week later into March than March 7th did deliver. How on earth did snow lovers monitor a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Guidance shifting west like this ain't good and there's still a full 24-36 hrs of model shifts to go. Seems like this could easily ride the NJ coast. However it's a very tightly wound system, which could allow it to snow just NW of the low. Those inland who suffered from outages are going to get hammered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Not as bad as I thought. You can see the NE turn start just off ACY. There are still enough west leaners to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Not as bad as I thought. You can see the NE turn start just off ACY. There are still enough west leaners to be concerned. Yeah, same here. Quite a few SE members as well. (More than expected) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 A turn into SE NJ wouldnt normally be bad because the metro would initially get rocked. Then dry slot or rain then go back to heavy snow but the system undergoes somewhat of a semi occlusion on a bunch of the tucked guidance and the backside precip basically dies as the low pulls out across areas east of LI. I’m not sure that’s believable or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, sferic said: But the Blizzard of 1888 a week later into March than March 7th did deliver. How on earth did snow lovers monitor a storm? They didn't, and a lot of people were killed. And most of them probably weren't snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The EPS has a decent number of coastal hugger tracks that would likely be west enough to change us over and dryslot. I would temper expectations unless models like the NAM come east. I agree. Still possible the metro area is smacked, but...Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: I agree. Still possible the metro area is smacked, but... Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Posters like you and JM are seeing the data and have reason to think this may be another less than ideal situation for us. I tend to give this serious weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Posters like you and JM are seeing the data and have reason to think this may be another less than ideal situation for us. I tend to give this serious weight. This is what I remember growing up in the snow challenged 70’s and 80’s. Any marginal set up resulted in cold and rain. Snow was always “north and west of the city” according to 1010 WINS. Snow was hard to come by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: This is what I remember growing up in the snow challenged 70’s and 80’s. Any marginal set up resulted in cold and rain. Snow was always “north and west of the city” according to 1010 WINS. Snow was hard to come by True, but these juiced and stronger storms weren't as common where dynamics would help out in marginal airmasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: This is what I remember growing up in the snow challenged 70’s and 80’s. Any marginal set up resulted in cold and rain. Snow was always “north and west of the city” according to 1010 WINS. Snow was hard to come by Yes, most of the time, and a big hit, with a few exceptions, was around 4-8 inches, and 8 was high. Once in awhile you'd get a 78 style blizzard, or an 83 one. So I'm not bullish on this storm yet; I don't like the trends, and most of all, the March curse....again I could be misinterpreting the data but I doubt JM and USCG RS are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: True, but these juiced and stronger storms weren't as common where dynamics would help out in marginal airmasses. Indeed they were rare, but the setups where it snowed NW and not much elsewhere weren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 If the 18z NAM follows the changes at H5, it should end up East of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If the 18z NAM follows the changes at H5, it should end up East of 12z. Def going to be at least slightly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Def going to be at least slightly east not so sure about that didn't look like it at first, it was tucked in but made that jog east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Much better NAM run for NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Crush job on NAm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Low is about 50 miles east of ACY as opposed to on top of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Ends up just a tick East, not closed off yet, smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: not so sure about that didn't look like it at first, it was tucked in but made that jog east You could see it coming on h5. Good run for most of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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