Rjay Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET looks like it is 995 right over ERN LI at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 That looks good no ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This looks to get going off the NC coast. It’ll be plenty developed by the time it gets here. The concern now is how far west it tracks, not that it’s a late bloomer. This system looks to be a very compact system. That should be very concerning for those in the interior. It would have to go over LI to deliver the goods NW of 287. I would like my chances if I were in NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: That looks good no ? . Probably but cutting it close especially eastern areas. Likely a lot of snow especially NYC west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: This system looks to be a very compact system. That should be very concerning for those in the interior. It would have to go over LI to deliver the goods NW of 287. I would like my chances if I were in NYC/LI It’s great now but who knows what it’ll be in 48 hours. A late amped trend might make it another rainer to dry slot here. The 500 low hopefully can close off soon enough for more to wrap around the west side further away from the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: it's a compact system and the mid level tracks are perfect. just need it to hold for the next 4 days... we didnt hear this optimism last storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Here is 102 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The UKMET looks like it is 995 right over ERN LI at 96 hours.With cold air spilling in and the NAO going towards neutral, I would think this is too far west, imo. Baroclinicity would be farther offshore especially since the air mass is injecting in. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Screams SECS/MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Screams SECS/MECS To me, epo is the biggest thing here. Yes the PNA is helpful, but with the EPO dipping, we have cold air unlocked. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Enigma said: The mean’s in a nice spot but all the west leaners are concerning. This can definitely produce for most but there’s still plenty of time for it to trend to rainy crap. I’m cautiously optimistic but last March’s disaster that trended bad last minute rings pretty loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: To me, epo is the biggest thing here. Yes the PNA is helpful, but with the EPO dipping, we have cold air unlocked. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk This makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: With cold air spilling in and the NAO going towards neutral, I would think this is too far west, imo. Baroclinicity would be farther offshore especially since the air mass is injecting in. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk I’d like to see more resistance to the northeast. There’s really no 50-50 low or any mechanism to keep this offshore. The airmass is better but there’s still ridging to the east that can muck it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I’d like to see more resistance to the northeast. There’s really no 50-50 low or any mechanism to keep this offshore. The airmass is better but there’s still ridging to the east that can muck it up. I like you Jm, but your post is fake news. You don't have your facts correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Enigma said: I like you Jm, but your post is fake news. You don't have your facts correct. Where am I wrong? I like you too, but posts like these aren’t helpful. And I agree, this is a nice setup and it could end up making us all happy. The recent runs also have the 500 low closing off in a good place and giving CCB goods. Hopefully it ends up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 This makes no sense. What about it dp you feel is incorrect? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: What about it dp you feel is incorrect? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk You have a -NAO with a rapid transition towards + and a rising PNA, and the best you can utter is about a perfectly fine (for SECS/MECS) EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The west based NAO block will keep this from heading n or NW. Just look at the primary to our west hit a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Excellent agreement for 4 days out. Everything has lined up perfectly for a good hit, I'd be shocked if we missed out on this one. Don't worry about the thermals either, if the Gfs shows mid 30s, it'll probably end up being 30-32F. It was off by 7-8F with Friday's storm. The air mass is much colder aloft too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Wow, great run for the coast. Looks east of the GFS and CMC. Inland guys should root for a slightly faster 500mb low closeoff, that should extend good snow further west. Hopefully this can be one where there’s plenty to go around for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Too soon to talk ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, sferic said: Too soon to talk ratios? Yes but it would be a wet settling snow since we have marginal ground temps. Ratios are mostly decided at the snow growth layer, where you want -12 to -18C temps for dendrites. But the warmish boundary layer would hurt ratios. I doubt it would be 10-1 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I think it says a lot when we literally have the best overall run of the winter for majority on this board, and people still are not able to identify an ideal setup.I am not saying that this is not and ideal set up. What I am saying is that EPO going negative unlocks the cold air. Yes, the west based negative nao tends to cause a trough in the polar jet stream, however, as we saw last storm, an uncooperative Pacific yields consequences downstream. Yes, the west based - NAO allowed for blocking and for the storm to explode, but the flow from the pacific kept the cold air locked into northern Canada (rather zonal flow from the pacific). Furthermore, the PNA tends to be more significant in regards to allowing colder air further into the south. The EPO is the Alaskan Ridge, so while the PNA may not be perfectly cooperating, a negative EPO still tends to allow the cold air to spill into at least the Northeastern United States. Actually, this Ridge taps more cold air as it can push into the Arctic before funneling into the Eastern United States. Therefore, this is why I was saying, to me, the EPO is significant with this setup. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 This will be a fun storm to track over the next 96 hours and more sleepless nights awaiting the 00z runs no doubt. Hopefully the comments here will be civil and a bit more mature. This isn't ne.weather of usenet circa 1996, does ne.weather or usenet still exist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The euro is nice for the immediate coast but it did really get going a little later than previous. Hopefully this isn't a theme with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 If you don't like the level of discussion here then help elevate it. Be civil and show people where they're wrong or don't post. Up to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 18 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: The euro is nice for the immediate coast but it did really get going a little later than previous. Hopefully this isn't a theme with this system There's good reason for this to be a powerful system (although not as powerful as the last). Colder airmass against the ocean (baroclinicity), a nice trough and good kick of upper air energy to spin up the low off the Carolina coast. If it does track the right way, this should be a producer. Look at the 500mb chart, and how soon that low closes off (sooner means more snow thrown back west and overall better intensity) and the surface low track. My main concern is the ridging east of the low-that can make for a last minute west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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