weatherlogix Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: just follow my instructions and it works. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I do believe this will be a verifiable blizzard, just comes down to where the fronto bands set up in the afternoon. Winds G30KT+ will be common along the coast, and some G40-45KT appear possible as the heavy precip is transitioning through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 31 minutes ago, Rjay said: Click on a map and open it in a new tap and then change the timestamp. @weatherlogix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Extraordinary model consensus for 42-48 hours prior to an event starting. Might not remain like that, but in theory, model uncertainty decreases to zero as the event approaches, so there should be less shifts likely now than a day ago. Of course, "big" shifts happen with regard to impact (50 miles is a big impact shift, but not a huge modeling change) in the last 12-24 hours more than we'd like, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 JB is calling for 3-6 inches for the coast with more inland. He then said that the coast isn't out of the woods for more. I agree with his call for 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: @weatherlogix ah...yes. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Extraordinary model consensus for 42-48 hours prior to an event starting. Might not remain like that, but in theory, modell uncertainty decreases to zero as the event approaches, so there should be less shifts likely now than a day ago. Of course, "big" shifts happen with regard to impact (50 miles is a big impact shift, but not a huge modeling change) in the last 12-24 hours more than we'd like, however. Is this really the case? The models don't even get fed the same initial conditions so it can't be a given that they all fall into perfect agreement at verification time... even in theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Juliancolton said: Is this really the case? The models don't even get fed the same initial conditions so it can't be a given that they all fall into perfect agreement at verification time... even in theory. i think "decreases to a minimum" makes more sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: JB is calling for 3-6 inches for the coast with more inland. He then said that the coast isn't out of the woods for more. I agree with his call for 3-6 inches. The bodybuilder? That's a troubling number coming from him. Usually he'd say 12+. 10m Winds on Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: The bodybuilder? That's a troubling number coming from him. Usually he'd say 12+. 10m Winds on Euro? under 20 knots unless at the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: JB is calling for 3-6 inches for the coast with more inland. He then said that the coast isn't out of the woods for more. I agree with his call for 3-6 inches. That’s what I’d go with as well. Still too close for comfort for mixing and dryslot. We want the fade NE to happen quickly off NJ. Last March’s didn’t start until the low went over Central Suffolk, which was obviously way too late to keep it snow in the city and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I think Uptons call for 6-9 in the city is a good one at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 JMA looks like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That’s what I’d go with as well. Still too close for comfort for mixing and dryslot. We want the fade NE to happen quickly off NJ. Last March’s didn’t start until the low went over Central Suffolk, which was obviously way too late to keep it snow in the city and east. The thing is the impacts in the city and the SS could not have been more then night and day. I had 10” on the UWS of which about 4” was sleet. The temp never went above 32. So it was like trying to move concrete and highly impactful. So only a 30 mile difference is huge regarding where the coastal front sets up. This appears to be further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The thing is the impacts in the city and the SS could not have been more then night and day. I had 10” on the UWS of which about 4” was sleet. The temp never went above 32. So it was like trying to move concrete and highly impactful. So only a 30 mile difference is huge regarding where the coastal front sets up. This appears to be further east Taking the NAM 40 miles east would be a great outcome for almost everyone. But the overall setup allows for a system to become amped like that. Eventually the blocking and closing off aloft allows a track NE but where that happens is key. Odds are the NAM is overdone but it’s a real possibility. Some GEFS were also amped like that. It’ll be interesting to see the EPS members soon. If many of them are NAM like, it may be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Is there reason to think that accumulations might have problems similar to the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Is there reason to think that accumulations might have problems similar to the last storm? IMO no, these rates coupled with a less scorching ground should make it easier, but we have to see it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z NAVGEM tucked, decent shift West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 15z SREF plumes: ISP 6.90" LGA: 6.76" JFK 6.40" EWR 6.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 EPS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: IMO no, these rates coupled with a less scorching ground should make it easier, but we have to see it play out. Though i could see sleet for a lot of us if the surface low gets too close ala the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: 15z SREF plumes: ISP 6.90" LGA: 6.76" JFK 6.40" EWR 6.50" MMU, HPN, SWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Looks like about 10~ EPS members are tucked like the NAM. A few ride up over ENJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: IMO no, these rates coupled with a less scorching ground should make it easier, but we have to see it play out. Thanks for the response. Felt robbed last storm. 7 hours of light to moderate snow. Only a trace accumulated lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 EPS mean and control have 4-8 inches for the City with more to the north and west and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: MMU, HPN, SWF? HPN: 7.38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: HPN: 7.38" MMU, SWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Thanks for the response. Felt robbed last storm. 7 hours of light to moderate snow. Only a trace accumulated lol Yeah I feel like Charlie Brown and Lucy, especially in March storms. We're two days out yet, lots to change. Hoping this one works out better. Went a little quiet here the last few mins maybe we're between important runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 This was the precip as snow from the 12z Rgem; 25mm if precip is roughly 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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