NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, forkyfork said: this run gives almost everyone here a dry slot. even you, yanksfan I'll take my dry slot after 10"+ of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The curse of Upton strikes again ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Looks like model biases in effect. Amped up Nam, further east Euro, track probably somewhere in between. Bingo, couldnt agree more. Not to mention GFS thermals juist completely nutso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like model biases in effect. Amped up Nam, further east Euro, track probably somewhere in between. If that were to happen everyone, except Suffolk would cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: If that were to happen everyone, except Suffolk would cash in. Sacrifices. It's amazing how one warm NAM run can expose all the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'll take my dry slot after 10"+ of snow it's not 10+. i don't care what the precip maps show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I never ever get excited about snowstorms in March. It's nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: it's not 10+. i don't care what the precip maps show I'll take my chances, the strongest lift is always just to the North of that dry punch. I would certainly thump for several hours before dry slotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAM is usually over-amped at this range. Although the tucked GFS look from yesterday concerns me for NYC/LI as well. The UKIE/UKMET is where the NYC crowd wants the track to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like model biases in effect. Amped up Nam, further east Euro, track probably somewhere in between. The 12z NAM lined up with some of the westward leaning EPS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The 12z NAM lined up with some of the westward leaning EPS members. Not really, because those EPS members went NE. The NAM drive due north into LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The 12z NAM lined up with some of the westward leaning EPS members. Mostly the outlying ones. I knew this was coming west but it’s probably not coming as far west as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The NAM doesn't cross LI either. It pulls close to ACY and then scoots out ENE south of LI. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The 12z NAM lined up with some of the westward leaning EPS members. That westward track is certainly possible, it would fit the seasonal trends. If the Nam track verifies, then so be it. It's already the 2nd week of March, I'm not gonna lose sleep over this. However I'd be concerned about additional damage from wind & snow for inland areas and for more coastal flooding with that tucked in track after the events of Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The SREFs looking more like the Euro pretty much guarantee the NAM is too far west. They are typically very amped in any storm at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Whatever winder washer effect we have with the models today, can anyone explain what would force the LP more west versus east towards the BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Can someone post the snowfall map for the 00Z Euro Op? I can see them on weather.us, but that site won't allow me to paste them here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Whatever winder washer effect we have with the models today, can anyone explain what would force the LP more west versus east towards the BM? It closed off faster at 500 mb and got captured sooner this run. Does it happen closer to ACY or roll out a little further east first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 By the SREF Plumes, NYC gets 5" Snow, 0.90" liquid. 0Z Runs: On the GFS Cobb Method NYC gets 0"Snow and an inch or rain. But the NAM Cobb Method has Rain becoming Snow in earnest by 3PM Wed., and accumulating 20"!!!, in 14 hrs. (1.5" liquid) This would be hard to believe in Jan. Expect a big downward revision shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 End of 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAM is probably too amped but it’s in the envelope of possibilities. If there’s early phasing, the flow will amplify and the low will hug the coast. Some ensemble members in the Euro and GFS had an outcome not far from that. I’d jump on the Euro for it’s consistency but it’s had more busts over the last year or two. The NAM being this far west and the others being a good bit east makes me think it’s overdone though. Even 50 miles east of that NAM run would be really nice for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Icon is a beauty. A little more tucked than 6z, pretty similar to its 0z run really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Icon is a beauty. A little more tucked than 6z, pretty similar to its 0z run really. Seems underdeveloped on the NW side. You would think with a track like that Eastern PA should be getting hammered. It looks very similar to the 12z NAM FWIW in terms of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Seems underdeveloped on the NW side. You would think with a track like that Eastern PA should be getting hammered. It looks very similar to the 12z NAM FWIW in terms of track. Icon always seems to underdue precip for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 RGEM goes to 84 and is similar to NAM w/ its track but appears to dynamically cool things enough for 12+ citywide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Out of curiosity.. I've had trouble finding any literature about this within meteorological journals (perhaps I am looking for the incorrect term), but how do wavelengths effect teleconnections? Is there anyone that can provide some literature or perhaps an explanation of this phenomena? I've been researching quite a bit and still cannot find the info. Thank you in advance. Likewise, I am piggy backing off my comment a few days ago with regards to this storm, hence why I am posting in this thread. If this is the wrong thread, apologies and please relocate it. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, purduewx80 said: RGEM goes to 84 and is similar to NAM w/ its track but appears to dynamically cool things enough for 12+ citywide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: Out of curiosity.. I've had trouble finding any literature about this within meteorological journals (perhaps I am looking for the incorrect term), but how do wavelengths effect teleconnections? Is there anyone that can provide some literature or perhaps an explanation of this phenomena? I've been researching quite a bit and still cannot find the info. Thank you in advance. Likewise, I am piggy backing off my comment a few days ago with regards to this storm, hence why I am posting in this thread. If this is the wrong thread, apologies and please relocate it. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk @ORH_wxman might be able to help, i think hes discussed this in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 [mention=17]ORH_wxman[/mention] might be able to help, i think hes discussed this in the past.Thank you Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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