kgriffin56 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Good morning -- hate to ask this in the forum, but I do rely on AWX for my most accurate weather details I'm driving up from Virginia (DC area) on Thursday morning (about 5am departure)....will I be able to make it to Brooklyn in one piece? Snow Removal is something that you do a lot better than down here, so I'm hopeful I'll be able to get up there without a hitch. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: GFS and NAM from 06Z both have 100+ J/kg of CAPE based around 650mb Wed afternoon. That plus some extreme frontogenesis spells a good risk for TSSN if these solutions hold. Severe thundersnow? Whoa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 31 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Yea man I feel bad for ya and all the others without power still... I am extremely shocked on how long it’s taking for areas to get the power back... from what I heard 90% will be back by Tuesday night which is a cause of concern because a lot of people will not have the available resources to keep them in the loop for Wednesday storm. That 90% thing is just so they can say "oh sorry, you're one of the 10% that we haven't gotten to yet" 13 minutes ago, dWave said: I concerned for more tree damage with a heavy wet snow. Bite your tongue 11 minutes ago, sn0w said: What do the winds look like with this one? I just got power back for the first time since Friday afternoon and now we are getting 10+ more inches of wet snow Yep, I went out to grab dinner last night and noticed that downtown and by the lake was powered up. I'm on my way over to your house in a little while for a hot shower. Cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, kgriffin56 said: I'm driving up from Virginia (DC area) on Thursday morning (about 5am departure)....will I be able to make it to Brooklyn in one piece? Snow Removal is something that you do a lot better than down here, so I'm hopeful I'll be able to get up there without a hitch. Assuming you'll be taking I95 up, you should hit the Metro area about rush hour (although I suspect traffic will be lighter than normal). Since the heaviest snow should fall during Wednesday afternoon and early evening the plows SHOULD have enough time to make the roads driveable. Take it slow and careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Much better setup for the coast this time I can't complain about last years storm, received 9.5 inches of snow and sleet on the CT coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Looks like the NAM is being really aggressive with the snow totals again. Around a foot for much of NJ. Although the GFS says less than 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, kgriffin56 said: Good morning -- hate to ask this in the forum, but I do rely on AWX for my most accurate weather details I'm driving up from Virginia (DC area) on Thursday morning (about 5am departure)....will I be able to make it to Brooklyn in one piece? Snow Removal is something that you do a lot better than down here, so I'm hopeful I'll be able to get up there without a hitch. Thanks I'd risk it maybe if I had a four wheel drive with SNOW tires. Even at that, one can't go around stranded cars on a highway (if the snow gets that bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Looks like the NAM is being really aggressive with the snow totals again. Around a foot for much of NJ. Although the GFS says less than 2 inches Huh? GFS is SECSy for northern half of Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Looks like the NAM is being really aggressive with the snow totals again. Around a foot for much of NJ. Although the GFS says less than 2 inches That’s wrong . Dude look at the models , the GFS has 4-8 inches for many areas in northern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Huh? GFS is SECSy for northern half of Jersey. Oh, sorry, I never refreshed my page from before . It does show heavier for the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The EPS matched the op, there were definitely west leaning members but the mean matched the op Almost all of the individual members were West of the OP. A few Eastern outliers skewed the mean Eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Looks like the NAM is being really aggressive with the snow totals again. Around a foot for much of NJ. Although the GFS says less than 2 inches I'm assuming you live at the Jersey shore although I am not sure exactly where. All you need to know is that this isn't your storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Almost all of the individual members were West of the OP. A few Eastern outliers skewed the mean Eastward. The mean is still an extremely good track for NYC...looks to run just under Cape Cod and SE of Long Island. Should see heavy snow from the Hudson River eastward with that track. I still think the final track will be inside what the 0z ECM showed, given that the EPS had many west-leaning members. You have to count the number of members that lean west versus east because I'm sure there are a few members that are WAY east that are canceling out the majority leaning to the west of the operational track. That's why the ensemble mean is near the OP, but the reality is most of the individual ensembles are west of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Winter Storm Watches pretty much areawide, including Long Island. Pretty rare for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgriffin56 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, DaveTinNY said: I'd risk it maybe if I had a four wheel drive with SNOW tires. Even at that, one can't go around stranded cars on a highway (if the snow gets that bad). Thanks...going to try to get a train up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, nzucker said: The mean is still an extremely good track for NYC...looks to run just under Cape Cod and SE of Long Island. Should see heavy snow from the Hudson River eastward with that track. I still think the final track will be inside what the 0z ECM showed, given that the EPS had many west-leaning members. You have to count the number of members that lean west versus east because I'm sure there are a few members that are WAY east that are canceling out the majority leaning to the west of the operational track. That's why the ensemble mean is near the OP, but the reality is most of the individual ensembles are west of the OP. How is the mean useful when it's being skewed East by a few outliers? I strongly believe this tracks inside the benchmark, and I expected to see a bit of a windshield washer effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Almost all of the individual members were West of the OP. A few Eastern outliers skewed the mean Eastward. I think the problem with the Euro is more that it isn’t throwing precip far enough back behind the low than it is the track itself. That’s likely why even with the west leaning members the mean was still similar on QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I think the problem with the Euro is more that it isn’t throwing precip far enough back behind the low than it is the track itself. That’s likely why even with the west leaning members the mean was still similar on QPF Surprisingly the GFS seems to have a better handle with this. Even the NAVGEM throws a ton of precip back on the NW side. Look how much falls between 00z and 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 41 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I disagree - we still don't know which guidance has a better handle yet - a lot can happen in the next 36 -48 hours to change the forecast not time yet to talk in absolutes Where in that post did I speak in absolutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z NAM going to be another major hit. 991mb right off ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Incoming QPF bomb on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Tucked in, right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Significantly more amped, NYC maybe screwed. 3mB stronger than 6z, considerably more tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Tucked in, right where we want it. HA! If NYC and east wants rain, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Rates may be saving grace here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: HA! If NYC and east wants rain, sure. You live in PA, why do you care about NYC getting rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Significantly more amped, NYC maybe screwed. 3mB stronger than 6z, considerably more tucked. Rates will mean nothing with a low that close to the coast and warm air screaming in from the east aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Closed off right over Southern NJ in a beautiful spot. This doesn't getting any better for the interior. A track like this is what we've been missing for the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Rates may be saving grace here. 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Rates may be saving grace here. sav 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Tucked in, right where we want it. look at the precip type - yes where some might want it if you live inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: You live in PA, why do you care about NYC getting rain? Just coming in to get a sense of the regions thoughts. Plus, I have a mtg in Boston on Thursday so need to understand the outcome on my route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.