Ace Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: For the dry slot you want to track the 700mb low. If it goes west of you, you will dryslot probably since dry air is rotating around south of that low. The 0z NAM has the 700mb low fly up the coast, stall when it reaches South Jersey, and then moves/redevelops east out towards the eastern end of Long Island. Considering how tucked the actual Low Pressure low was, thats actually not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Majority of this will be at night The GFS and Nam has sped things up a bit for their 0z runs and now have the bulk of the precipitation falling on Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ace said: The 0z NAM has the 700mb low fly up the coast, stall when it reaches South Jersey, and then moves/redevelops east out towards the eastern end of Long Island. Considering how tucked the actual Low Pressure low was, thats actually not too bad. Once the 500 low closes off, the surface low should head more easterly as that low gets captured and pushed east. That could be another factor that saves it from mixing much. That can also push the deform band east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ace said: The GFS and Nam has sped things up a bit for their 0z runs and now have the bulk of the precipitation falling on Wednesday afternoon. This will likely come down so hard it won’t matter. March sun angle generally only is a factor with light rates. It didn’t make a difference at all on 3/13/93 and it was 30-32 that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: Once the 500 low closes off, the surface low should head more easterly as that low gets captured and pushed east. That could be another factor that saves it from mixing much. That can also push the deform band east. The GFS looked east of the 18Z run to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, nesussxwx said: Not every storm is going to trend east lol Anyone else worried that the former low still has an influence over us? This could act to limit the amount of baroclynic energy available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This will likely come down so hard it won’t matter. March sun angle generally only is a factor with light rates. It didn’t make a difference at all on 3/13/93 and it was 30-32 that day Yes I agree. The rates being depicted are quite impressive and Wednesday afternoon rush hour looks to be greatly affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Rpm has a NYC jackpot of 8-12inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Hurricane Hunters are going to get activated for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rpm has a NYC jackpot of 8-12inches Where's the R/S cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Really seeing the 12/30/00 resemblance on many snow maps now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Really seeing the 12/30/00 resemblance on many snow maps now too. NYC and LI gets snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Lock that one in please por favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Seeing this, I doubt the euro tucks into the coast like the American models at 0z.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Those were some tucked in tracks from Gfs/Nam, which does make me a bit nervous. You also don't want more coastal flooding and strong winds after the last storm. Another N&W jackpot looks likely but NYC should do fine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I honestly think the GFS track makes most sense here given the track of the mid level centers, and most of you know I think the GFS is garbage. The Euro has been too far East all Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Euro is still well east of the Gfs and nam but precip is further west than 12z. This run is so close to being a good snowstorm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The Euro is east again, at least it’s consistent. Basically the same as 12z. New England gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The Euro staying mostly east is concerning and I am not quite sold on a good snowstorm for our area yet. Hopefully the EPS will be a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Any comments of this from the New England thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Euro is an outlier atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Any comments of this from the New England thread. On which one? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 A ton of members closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Nam will prob be east of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Nam will prob be east of 0z Yeah. Probably between 00z and 18z it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Upton has pulled the trigger. 6-9” locally 12”. Winter storm watch is up. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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