bluewave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I officially declare this one of the most challenging forecasts the last few days that we seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 10:05 PM, weatherlogix said: between 1-4 i received 0" of snw...im in that green area in nassau Expand How is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 10:42 PM, jm1220 said: Honestly, not much utility IMO in the short range models so far. None of them had a dryslot invading into Long Island today and a megaband parking over central NJ. They had an axis of much heavier precip down here. I think snow will redevelop from the city east as the pivot looks to finally be happening, but the band looks to be weakening a bit. Expand Really poor job by the short range models out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 total bust here in upper manhattan i doubt we will get to even 6 inches.. let alone the 6 to 12 inches as was predicted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This storm is a good example of why you shouldn't simply trust the model snow totals. The cold was marginal with this system. The heat island effect and daytime March sun angle tipped it for the city. 20-30 miles outside the city there are reports of a 12"+ though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 10:52 PM, bluewave said: I officially declare this one of the most challenging forecasts the last few days that we seen in a while. Expand Already lost an inch and a half of snow in about 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Short term models can give a false sense of hope. Nothing replaces experience and pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 10:55 PM, Rjay said: Already lost an inch and a half of snow in about 30 mins Expand Today was actually close to the norm for snowfall forecasts during the 70's and 80's. Many times you didn't know how things would go down until nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 10:53 PM, Rjay said: How is that possible? Expand no accumulating snow...anything else is rain in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:28 PM, weatherlogix said: no accumulating snow...anything else is rain in my book Expand It's crazy you didn't have any accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Can anybody explain What exactly caused that mega band to just stall and produce like that over NJ? Forcing, low placement anything like that? Would like to have a better understanding and idea for future storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:43 PM, BombsAway1288 said: Can anybody explain What exactly caused that mega band to just stall and produce like that over NJ? Forcing, low placement anything like that? Would like to have a better understanding and idea for future storms Expand Sometimes it’s just quasi random. The band can organize anywhere within a range of maybe 50 miles or so and if you’re outside the band, there’s subsidence and you’re SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:30 PM, Rjay said: It's crazy you didn't have any accumulations. Expand Even here I had a couple of inches I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:43 PM, BombsAway1288 said: Can anybody explain What exactly caused that mega band to just stall and produce like that over NJ? Forcing, low placement anything like that? Would like to have a better understanding and idea for future storms Expand Not sure but the 700mb frontogenesis just sat there. The storm made a turn due north after heading east for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:50 PM, jm1220 said: Even here I had a couple of inches I think. Expand Still snowing here but sounds like it's raining as the snow melts rapidly off of everything. It's down to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7” otg in Wading River. Still accumulating. Pretty nice surprise, started the day think we might pick up a slushy couple of inches on back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:58 PM, Snowshack said: 7” otg in Wading River. Still accumulating. Pretty nice surprise, started the day think we might pick up a slushy couple of inches on back end. Expand Haha awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 6:23 PM, NJwx85 said: My final call Pink 1-3" Light Blue 2-4" Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8" Green 6-10", locally 12" Red 8-12", locally 18" Expand How did I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 12:29 AM, NJwx85 said: How did I do? Expand Pretty horribly for SEPA. You had 1-3. SEPA got 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 12:31 AM, Philadelphia Snow said: Pretty horribly for SEPA. You had 1-3. SEPA got 8-12. Expand I knew the risk there, and I was worried about the North shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 12:29 AM, NJwx85 said: How did I do? Expand You couldn't resist could you? Lol Yes, you are the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:59 PM, Rjay said: Haha awesome. You know, I was just thinking about how the models missed the dry slot for the area. I think they did well with the storm and it closing off, I think they misinterpreted the dry conveyer belt (DCB). Looking at radar now, it appears the CCB is developing as it begins to move (now about bm), I think perhaps we saw the initial occlusion and stall (I have been working so I have not been able to keep up exactly with the storm) of the initial LP right off the NJ coast. This occlusion allowed the DCB to force up into LI before the Eastern most SLP took over (now) and began to blossom, hence the CCB developing overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I'm not sure it will happen or not... but I can't help but wonder if that band over cat tries to wrap back into parts of LI here, or at least connects with those bands currently over LI... certainly looks like it's trying to clarify, I mean the areas between Bridgeport and Huntington, further east it's already doing so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 12:29 AM, NJwx85 said: How did I do? Expand Eastern LI definitely busted high... but I don't think many saw that coming. Even @Crankywxguy who was among the coldest and furthest east, was probably low out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 12:29 AM, NJwx85 said: How did I do? Expand Pretty good for my area...25 Miles off maybe but that’s pretty much splitting hairs imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 12:35 AM, USCG RS said: On 3/7/2018 at 11:59 PM, Rjay said: Haha awesome. Expand You know, I was just thinking about how the models missed the dry slot for the area. I think they did well with the storm and it closing off, I think they misinterpreted the dry conveyer belt (DCB). Looking at radar now, it appears the CCB is developing as it begins to move (now about bm), I think perhaps we saw the initial occlusion and stall (I have been working so I have not been able to keep up exactly with the storm) of the initial LP right off the NJ coast. This occlusion allowed the DCB to force up into LI before the Eastern most SLP took over (now) and began to blossom, hence the CCB developing overhead. Expand It's going to be east of me by you. While the other one decays to my west. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:43 PM, BombsAway1288 said: Can anybody explain What exactly caused that mega band to just stall and produce like that over NJ? Forcing, low placement anything like that? Would like to have a better understanding and idea for future storms Expand There are people who devote their life's work to figuring out what makes mesoscale snow bands tick. If don't mind a little heavier reading, the NWS/SUNY Albany CSTAR research is pretty interesting: http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/CAP_Projects/Project4/index.htm Snow's tapering off here, which means the meat of the storm lasted about 7 hours. What I wouldn't give to see one of these dynamic bombs stick around a while instead of always wham, bam, thank you ma'am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 1:00 AM, Rjay said: It's going to be east of me by you. While the other one decays to my west. LolLol. I mean, if I was in control.. I'd give you snow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 1:06 AM, USCG RS said: Lol. I mean, if I was in control.. I'd give you snow also. Expand Lol it's all good. I'll never whine and I'm always happy for the other areas that are getting the goods . I do get frustrated though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:30 PM, Rjay said: It's crazy you didn't have any accumulations. Expand after 4PM i did - 2" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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