friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 8:55 PM, doncat said: Makes ya really appreciate the cold all snow storms where the rain snow line is not a concern. Much less stressful Expand I think north/west of the 78/287 intersection is probably locked in for warning snows. But here at the 95/pway/1/287/9 intersection we battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Correlation Coefficient radars for the win tomorrow. We will be chasing the heavy snow in North Jersey for 12. I am also concerned about the beaches- 50 mph winds is nothing to sneeze at and really only happens a handful of times a year. Manasquan OEM expecting minor to moderate flooding tomorrow - which will be day 6 of water in the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 8:52 PM, donsutherland1 said: For historical perspective, the last March snowstorm to bring 6" or more snow to Central Park occurred on March 14, 2017 when 7.6" fell. The last snowstorm to bring 8" or more snow to New York City in March occurred on March 1-2, 2009 when 8.3" snow fell. The last 10" or greater March snowstorm occurred on March 13-14, 1993 when 10.6" fell. The last March snowstorm to dump a foot or more of snow was the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard when 14.5" fell. Both the 1960 and 1993 storms had colder air masses with which to work. Expand you answered my previous question. Other than 1888 has there been a 15"+ snow fall in NYC history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 8:47 PM, USCG RS said: This could come down to where parts of the tri-state see prolific snowfall rates and accumulations while areas a few miles away are heavy rain. Times like these is where I'm glad I went OEM/counterterrorism and not forecasting. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Expand On 3/6/2018 at 8:52 PM, donsutherland1 said: For historical perspective, the last March snowstorm to bring 6" or more snow to Central Park occurred on March 14, 2017 when 7.6" fell. The last snowstorm to bring 8" or more snow to New York City in March occurred on March 1-2, 2009 when 8.3" snow fell. The last 10" or greater March snowstorm occurred on March 13-14, 1993 when 10.6" fell. The last March snowstorm to dump a foot or more of snow was the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard when 14.5" fell. Both the 1960 and 1993 storms had colder air masses with which to work. Expand So we can deduce that the storm, at least for NYC, will be less than ten inches in all likelihood ( no surprise there ) and a good chance it will be less than 8. Now we have to ask how many storms were less than 6? If there are a lot more, then the probability would increase for that. Next we could ask how many were less than 4? And so on. What do you think, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 8:59 PM, weatherlogix said: you answered my previous question. Other than 1888 has there been a 15"+ snow fall in NYC history? Expand Yes. March 7-8, 1941 18.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 If you use the Euro’s slow ticks you can assume it’ll tick warmer next two runs. That may be what Upton is thinking there. It’s become obvious it makes gradual moves until real time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Icon looks the same as the 12z run. Maybe a hair SE at hr 33 when is starting to move east but that’s it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:03 PM, donsutherland1 said: Yes. March 7-8, 1941 18.1". Expand Thanks Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:02 PM, Drz1111 said: No, you can't deduce that. That's now how this works. That's not how any of this works. Expand I take it you mean that each storm is different. I buy that. But history matters too. We have pros here saying they are having trouble making a prediction. I'm glad I don't have to base my living on something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 8:44 PM, forkyfork said: you can make an argument for 15" or 3" in nyc. this is so annoying Expand totally agree with both of you. this is kind of fun for me because i'm off and will enjoy seeing whatever ultimately happens. the only thing i know for sure is that this'll be another kick-ass nor'easter, and i don't think the dynamics and instability will disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 and the RGEM is WAY west EDIT - trying to post the B&W maps...wont let me EDIT 2 - still looks OK....the B&W maps are crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:00 PM, weatherpruf said: So we can deduce that the storm, at least for NYC, will be less than ten inches in all likelihood ( no surprise there ) and a good chance it will be less than 8. Now we have to ask how many storms were less than 6? If there are a lot more, then the probability would increase for that. Next we could ask how many were less than 4? And so on. What do you think, Don? Expand Taking into consideration today’s guidance and historic climatology 4”-8” for Central Park and 3”-6” for JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18Z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:12 PM, donsutherland1 said: Taking into consideration today’s guidance and historic climatology 4”-8” for Central Park and 3”-6” for JFK. Expand Thanks Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:12 PM, NJwx85 said: 18Z RGEM Expand it is definitely warmer, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Again pay attention, not to how west/east it is near ACY or south, pay attention to where it takes a hard right/is forced underneath the block, RGEM at first appears heading way west, but still scoots it almost due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:17 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Again pay attention, not to how west/east it is near ACY or south, pay attention to where it takes a hard right/is forced underneath the block, RGEM at first appears heading way west, but still scoots it almost due east Expand THIS. Its a touch worse in the areas that were on the border before. Basically east and south of TTN gets shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:17 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Again pay attention, not to how west/east it is near ACY or south, pay attention to where it takes a hard right/is forced underneath the block, RGEM at first appears heading way west, but still scoots it almost due east Expand As long as the mid-level cyclones stay offshore we should be okay. Again, the biggest threat for busting low with this storm is the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Point and click has me up to 11-16" Warning is for 10-16" with localized amounts to 18" possible. Latest as of about forty minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:19 PM, NJwx85 said: As long as the mid-level cyclones stay offshore we should be okay. Again, the biggest threat for busting low with this storm is the dry slot. Expand for who..maybe for you but not for those of us in central jersey as we watch that rain line creep closer with every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:21 PM, NJwx85 said: Point and click has me up to 11-16" Warning is for 10-16" with localized amounts to 18" possible. Latest as of about forty minutes ago. Expand This is the latest Upton map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18z RGEM 12z for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:27 PM, IrishRob17 said: This is the latest Upton map Expand Yeah that's the one I tried to post but it went back to the old image. That's a common problem that only stops if you attach the image, which I cannot do because the file size is too large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:26 PM, winterwarlock said: for who..maybe for you but not for those of us in central jersey as we watch that rain line creep closer with every run Expand The rain is because of the mid-level cyclones tracking near, limiting the lift and also bringing in warmer air. Like I said, if those centers pass further offshore, it's less of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:19 PM, NJwx85 said: As long as the mid-level cyclones stay offshore we should be okay. Again, the biggest threat for busting low with this storm is the dry slot. Expand Depending on location, mixing could be a bigger issue as a cause of lower totals then the DS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 So far the common theme with the 18z suite is that the rich get richer and those on the border get less. Both the RGEM and NAM increased totals for the interior by 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:31 PM, strgazr27 said: Depending on location, mixing could be a bigger issue as a cause of lower totals then the DS. Expand Yeah but that's directly tied to the mid-level centers. If they pass further offshore, both mixing and dry slotting become less of a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 9:28 PM, NJwx85 said: 18z RGEM 12z for comparison. Expand WOW! I'd be okay with either of these. Why is this so amped and east with the totals? (compared to GFS, NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The last three runs of the HRRR for 12Z tomorrow have shifted the surface low at least a few miles east at the same latitude each run. Maybe noise, maybe wipers, maybe a slightly faster track off the coast before the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Honestly it looks almost unanimous on the models that the NYC metro will see less snow then what was thought earlier. But once again a highly fluid situation where now casting will be the utmost importance. I still think the NYC metro will see several inches of snow but may not make the double digits. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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