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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
  On 3/6/2018 at 7:04 PM, jm1220 said:

My first guess/call:

Central Park 7"

JFK: 4.5"

LGA: 6.5"

Bronx: 8"

EWR: 7"

HPN: 10.5"

BDR: 8"

MMU: 12.5"

Newburgh: 13"

Middletown: 13.5"

Danbury: 12"

ISP: 4"

Montauk: 0.5"

Huntington: 6"

FRG: 4.5"

Long Beach: 4"

 

The non-US models staying colder gives me some confidence the coastal areas will see at least a period of accumulating snow good for a few inches outside eastern Suffolk. I think it does eventually change over and dryslot for most, maybe not NW parts of the city. NW of I-95 is where you want to be, once into Westchester and western Bergen/Passaic Counties, amounts should increase pretty drastically and average a foot there. Depending on banding, someone should see 15". Overall, distribution should be pretty 3/14/17-like, though most of Long Island at least gets advisory level snow. 

I would shift the Euro west another 25 miles or so, which should be enough to get it to where my call is. I don't buy for a second the crazy hi-res CMC runs that have 12+ for Long Island, but maybe it's onto something with a colder idea due to the low moving ENE off S NJ. We'll see what happens. 

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JM you dont think JFK will be that different from Islip? I feel that, like with the Millenium storm, that the further west you are the better, even if its right on the coast.  Islip should do a lot worse than JFK because JFK is a lot farther west.  JFK should do better than Farmingdale also, based on your other numbers, I'd put JFK in the 6-8 inch range.

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
  On 3/6/2018 at 7:00 PM, NJwx85 said:

To answer some questions about my snow map, yes I understand that Southeast PA could receive more snow than I have depicted, the same can be said about Long Island. However I tried to take a blend of the guidance, which includes the possibility of the centers passing over SNJ and then Long Island. That's why I have less snow there. It's not a matter of temps as much as it is dry slot. If things change on later runs, I might have to shift things Southward a bit later.

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long range HRRR ( although awful) basically dry slots all of jersey, NYC and CT...would be big bust if that crappy model pulled one off lol

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 3/6/2018 at 7:06 PM, friedmators said:

in SWFE this is always the case.  Precip always starts earlier than modeled and 850s warm earlier.

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This isn't a SWFE. It's a Miller B transfer from a primary to a coastal low near the VA Capes. We want to pay attention to the 700 and 850 lows to see how far the dryslot and warm air make it. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 3/6/2018 at 7:09 PM, Paragon said:

JM you dont think JFK will be that different from Islip? I feel that, like with the Millenium storm, that the further west you are the better, even if its right on the coast.  Isip should do a lot worse than JFK because JFK is a lot farther west.

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If the GFS is more right, then yes Islip will get little. I'm banking on the low bending ENE more like the non-US models show. That would make the snow distribution more north to south than east-west up here. 

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