March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

[weatherpruf]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:28 PM, NJwx85 said:

So whenever you have mid-level cyclones passing nearby, you have sinking air, which naturally causes a dry slot, similar to why the eye of a hurricane is clear, of course that's an extreme case, but you can get eyes on some of these nor'easters. If I could post a model image showing relative humidity, you could easily see the dry air. @forkyfork posted one yesterday.

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So there will always be a dry slot somewhere....

[jm1220]

If you look at the overall pattern: -PNA which tries to pump the SE ridge, little resistance to the northeast of the trough, and little blocking standing in the way, it was clear this could be a storm that may go crazy amped like this. 

I’m going to wait for the rest of 12z to come in, but this isn’t what you want to see at all if you live near the coast, and probably the city too. And the Euro has had its share of short term busts lately, so it’s hard to throw in too much to it.

[friedmators]

Snow Weenie Suicide Watch Issued

[RDRY]

You can really see the volatility of this forecast with the high-res 3K. It's jumping the surface low all over the place - it's east, it's west, it's east, it's west.

[weatherlogix]

Manhattan appears to still be in the 6-10" range

[weatherpruf]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:30 PM, North and West said:

I like snow, don't get me wrong (and MMU had 18" in the Millennium Storm), but I really don't want to lose power and heat again. 

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The snow on Nov 7 after Sandy did not cause us to lose power again, if that's any consolation, and it was a wet snow.

[MJO812]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:31 PM, jm1220 said:

If you look at the overall pattern: -PNA which tries to pump the SE ridge, little resistance to the northeast of the trough, and little blocking standing in the way, it was clear this could be a storm that may go crazy amped like this. 

I’m going to wait for the rest of 12z to come in, but this isn’t what you want to see at all if you live near the coast, and probably the city too. And the Euro has had its share of short term busts lately, so it’s hard to throw in too much to it.

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People should be happy with a few inches in March.

[Stormlover74]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:28 PM, NJwx85 said:

So whenever you have mid-level cyclones passing nearby, you have sinking air, which naturally causes a dry slot, similar to why the eye of a hurricane is clear, of course that's an extreme case, but you can get eyes on some of these nor'easters. If I could post a model image showing relative humidity, you could easily see the dry air. @forkyfork posted one yesterday.

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It's not just the dry slot though. Everybody sees anywhere from .75 to 1.25" liquid yet only 2 to 5" if snow in and around the city so it's alot of white rain or melting going on as well

[weatherpruf]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:31 PM, jm1220 said:

If you look at the overall pattern: -PNA which tries to pump the SE ridge, little resistance to the northeast of the trough, and little blocking standing in the way, it was clear this could be a storm that may go crazy amped like this. 

I’m going to wait for the rest of 12z to come in, but this isn’t what you want to see at all if you live near the coast, and probably the city too. And the Euro has had its share of short term busts lately, so it’s hard to throw in too much to it.

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Much of the city is part of the coast. People forget that; it's a coastal city. With ports. It has beaches.There are saltwater fish all the way to the Tappan Zee.

[Stormlover74]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:32 PM, weatherpruf said:

The snow on Nov 7 after Sandy did not cause us to lose power again, if that's any consolation, and it was a wet snow.

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I still hadn't gotten my power back yet when that happened

[NJwx85]

Hard to look at, but you can really see how close the SLP actually comes to passing over NYC proper. This is too close even for the Western suburbs, until you get well N&W of the city.

[weatherpruf]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:32 PM, Snow88 said:

People should be happy with a few inches in March.

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Uh oh, sounds like you're lowering your expectations, partner....but I do agree.

[NJwx85]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:33 PM, Stormlover74 said:

It's not just the dry slot though. Everybody sees anywhere from .75 to 1.25" liquid yet only 2 to 5" if snow in and around the city so it's alot of white rain or melting going on as well

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Too many people are overreacting to one run of the NAM, still roughly 24 hours prior to the start of the storm.

[MJO812]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:34 PM, weatherpruf said:

Uh oh, sounds like you're lowering your expectations, partner....but I do agree.

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I am

I mean it's possible we can still see 6 + but if the nam and gfs are correct ,  we will see at best a few inches but of course it will come down to the CCB.

[USCG RS]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:31 PM, jm1220 said:

If you look at the overall pattern: -PNA which tries to pump the SE ridge, little resistance to the northeast of the trough, and little blocking standing in the way, it was clear this could be a storm that may go crazy amped like this. 
I’m going to wait for the rest of 12z to come in, but this isn’t what you want to see at all if you live near the coast, and probably the city too. And the Euro has had its share of short term busts lately, so it’s hard to throw in too much to it.

As we discussed yesterday.. Writing may be on the wall for the coast

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[Juliancolton]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:25 PM, weatherpruf said:

What does a dry slot look like on these various graphs, serious question

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You typically want to use the 700mb level to locate the dry intrusion. You can see on the NAM that mid-level drying gets almost back to the CT/NY border... even if it's still precipitating, that is liable to warm and desaturate the DGZ, which would hamper totals à la March 2017.

[allgame830]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:33 PM, weatherpruf said:

Much of the city is part of the coast. People forget that; it's a coastal city. With ports. It has beaches.There are saltwater fish all the way to the Tappan Zee.

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I would only consider SI and Brooklyn to be along the coast with Queens, Manhattan and especially The Bronx away from the immediate coast.  This storm could have wild differences between the northern sections of The Bronx as opposed to southern Brooklyn.

[Snowlover11]

Guys, lets put our weenieism aside and lets see the rest of the suite roll in, everyone over reacted off the nam yesterday as well, relax.

[friedmators]

The RAP (long range I know) looks even more amped at H5 than the NAM @ 9Z.

[nzucker]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:37 PM, allgame830 said:

I would only consider SI and Brooklyn to be along the coast with Queens, Manhattan and especially The Bronx away from the immediate coast.  This storm could have wild differences between the northern sections of The Bronx as opposed to southern Brooklyn.

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I live in the north Bronx and I could see 8-10" here while JFK gets 2-4".

[sferic]

Before saying all rain here, dry slot there, it's over, wait for the rest of the 12z suite to run.

[jm1220]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:30 PM, weatherlogix said:

at 30 hrs on the 3K nam the majority of the column, up to 775MB for the Oceanside area is at or above 0C.

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Verbatim that NAM is a brief period of snow to heavy rain, to dryslot, to maybe a period of snow after the dryslot where we are. Would be at most 2 or 3” of slop that odds are would be washed away in the heavy rain. We’re still close so a little east of that track might be OK here, but it’s concerning this close in that the NAM is trending west like this. 

[Buddy1987]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:38 PM, friedmators said:

The RAP (long range I know) looks even more amped at H5 than the NAM @ 9Z.

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The RAP fyi is terrible and way way out of its range if anything right now.

[RDRY]

With the EURO only running every 12 hours, it's at a major disadvantage with these tight-margin setups under 48 hours. Who's to say that the model wouldn't output a significantly different solution were it to run just an hour or two after its run? But it has to wait half a day, after three or more runs from other models, so it's perceived as being late to catch on.

[friedmators]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:40 PM, Buddy1987 said:

The RAP fyi is terrible and way way out of its range if anything right now.

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pretty sure i said that but thanks

[weatherpruf]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:37 PM, allgame830 said:

I would only consider SI and Brooklyn to be along the coast with Queens, Manhattan and especially The Bronx away from the immediate coast.  This storm could have wild differences between the northern sections of The Bronx as opposed to southern Brooklyn.

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Not Manhattan. It's maritime. At least lower Manhattan is. Used to take the boat there from Sandy Hook all the time.

[allgame830]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:38 PM, nzucker said:

I live in the north Bronx and I could see 8-10" here while JFK gets 2-4".

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Yes I agree... I am not really worried about myself in Northern Westchester where I am 10 miles north of 287 but I rather sacrifice a few inches so the whole metro can cash in!!!

[Buddy1987]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:41 PM, friedmators said:

pretty sure i said that but thanks

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No you did, but i'm just saying even in short range, I wouldn't put too much stock into it man. Would look more at the HRRR and some of the different models. Even 3K and 12K nam's are pretty darn good.

[Juliancolton]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:40 PM, RDRY said:

With the EURO only running every 12 hours, it's at a major disadvantage with these tight-margin setups under 48 hours. Who's to say that the model wouldn't output a significantly different solution were it to run just an hour or two after its run? But it has to wait half a day, after three or more runs from other models, so it's perceived as being late to catch on.

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The Euro two more cyclone before precip starts in earnest. If it can't get it nailed down in that time allowance then running it a hundred times a day wouldn't help matters.

[USCG RS]

  On 3/6/2018 at 2:38 PM, Snowlover11 said:

Guys, lets put our weenieism aside and lets see the rest of the suite roll in, everyone over reacted off the nam yesterday as well, relax.

My issue is not so much that the NAM is coming west, it's that synoptically it makes sense. The ULL looks to be getting here quicker, raising heights and thus allowing for a much further west track coinciding with a storm going negative very early (for the metro area).

The caveat I see is this: if we amp too quickly and have an initial occlusion/stacked phase... Then perhaps it keeps the area cold and from jumping so far north before getting shunted east. The devil is in the details

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