Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NYC east cooked. Congrats Westchester PA. Oh well, seasonal west trend to be expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Rain and then a dry slot, just what we all wanted! But in reality this is definitely the most ticked model now, hoping a compromise between this and the euro is what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Any inland/coast bickering is an automatic 7 day suspension from now until thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 989 sitting on top of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:38 PM, Ericjcrash said: NYC east cooked. Congrats Westchester PA. Oh well, seasonal west trend to be expected... Expand All this based on 12z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:39 PM, sferic said: All this based on 12z nam? Expand I'm literally referring to it, so yes. Not a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:31 PM, NJwx85 said: Tucked in, right where we want it. Expand What does tucked in mean when we're throwing that term around? Talk to me like I'm an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I have a real hard time believing those precip types with a low sitting on the shore. Does the NAM even know what sleet is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Ya'll need to relax. This is probably the start of the windshield wiper effect back to the West. You can't live and die by each model run. As much as I would like the 12z NAM to verify for personal reasons, it's the most tucked in run we've had and unlikely to happen like that since we're still a few runs away from finalizing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAM seems to be doing the windshield wiper thing on the west side of the guidance. Lets see how the rest of the 12z guidance shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:41 PM, North and West said: What does tucked in mean when we're throwing that term around? Talk to me like I'm an idiot. Expand See how the Surface low is right on the coast, as opposed to well offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The NAM is very well known for over-amping these storms. I doubt it hugs the coast like that, a UKIE track is more believable, I am curious what that shows at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:38 PM, Ericjcrash said: NYC east cooked. Congrats Westchester PA. Oh well, seasonal west trend to be expected... Expand It's 1 run Smfh The other models are east. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 God damn those are some serious VV's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The westward trend this year is the real deal. Now whether it comes as far west as the 12z NAM remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:43 PM, NJwx85 said: See how the Surface low is right on the coast, as opposed to well offshore? Expand Go on... What does that generally imply? When it's like that, what does it mean? Is this like the early 1990s again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just look how much things have jumped around from the last three runs, somewhat erratic. 00z was still best for my backyard. 12z 06z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The more amped and powerful the storm, the more likely it gets tucked, correct? what is the main influence whether it’s closer to coast or farther east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:43 PM, yankeex777 said: The NAM is very well known for over-amping these storms. I doubt it hugs the coast like that, a UKIE track is more believable, I am curious what that shows at 12z Expand The 12z NAM is a great track for your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:43 PM, Snow88 said: It's 1 run Smfh The other models are east. Relax. Expand IT'S JUST WHAT THE NAM IS SHOWING. I'm not saying it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:45 PM, mike1984 said: The more amped and powerful the storm, the more likely it gets tucked, correct? what is the main influence whether it’s closer to coast or farther east? Expand Not really, it has more to do with the handling of the mid-level cyclones, where they form, close off and ultimately track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:45 PM, mike1984 said: The more amped and powerful the storm, the more likely it gets tucked, correct? what is the main influence whether it’s closer to coast or farther east? Expand Correct, the more amped it is, the more ticked in it will be, the more west it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:45 PM, North and West said: Go on... What does that generally imply? When it's like that, what does it mean? Is this like the early 1990s again? Expand The further West you are, generally the further West you want that low to track. If you're on Long Island, you generally want a track over the benchmark or just to the East, which has happened far too often in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 General rule of thumb is 2-4 degrees of latitude left of the surface low for the best snows. 1-4 degrees at 850 and right along 700/500. YMMV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 this run gives almost everyone here a dry slot. even you, yanksfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:46 PM, NJwx85 said: The 12z NAM is a great track for your backyard. Expand Yea, its borderline though. Any further west and thats alot of slop/sleet/mix. But regardless of it being good for me, its still the furtherst west, actual track will prolly be east of that, unless other guidance comes around to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Looks like model biases in effect. Amped up Nam, further east Euro, track probably somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:51 PM, forkyfork said: this run gives almost everyone here a dry slot. even you, yanksfan Expand I'll take my dry slot after 10"+ of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The curse of Upton strikes again ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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