MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Crushing hit on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:42 AM, Rjay said: L Expand Classic for the coast and areas from the LHV into NE. Almost looked like it was going to be a bit too far west for LI based on 500mb, but the ULL develops and kicks a bit east at the perfect time just south of the Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12+ for the area on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:43 AM, Snow88 said: Crushing hit on the nam Expand Yup. Looks like a 2.0"+ contour over LI with 1.5+ from the city east pretty much edit: QPF that is, just to clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:45 AM, Rjay said: Wow. LI Would be smoked. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Gfs ticked east More snow for the area with the ccb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 9:51 AM, Snow88 said: Gfs ticked east More snow for the area with the ccb. Expand Based on the evolution aloft, I could easily see someone pick up 12"+ of heavy, wet snow. What a difference a slightly colder air mass can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Gefs came east Good to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:02 AM, Snow88 said: Gefs came east Good to see Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:21 AM, EasternLI said: Expand Very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The Euro being well east is enough to give pause. It can absolutely be right and if so, NYC west would likely see little accumulation again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:32 AM, NortheastPAWx said: The Euro being well east is enough to give pause. It can absolutely be right and if so, NYC west would likely see little accumulation again. Expand We will know by 12z. The euro has been awful this year but with that being said you still want it to be on your side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:32 AM, NortheastPAWx said: The Euro being well east is enough to give pause. It can absolutely be right and if so, NYC west would likely see little accumulation again. Expand What did the Euro and EPS show for the immediate metro? Looked like the EPS leaned west so we do have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:32 AM, NortheastPAWx said: The Euro being well east is enough to give pause. It can absolutely be right and if so, NYC west would likely see little accumulation again. Expand With the EPS mean being west of the op should definitely mean more than what the op showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:22 AM, Snow88 said: Very nice Expand Can it keep going east? We've seen that happen too....that is usually bad for my area just west of the city, as is too far west.....gotta be in the right spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:32 AM, NortheastPAWx said: The Euro being well east is enough to give pause. It can absolutely be right and if so, NYC west would likely see little accumulation again. Expand Euro gave me 12 inches multiple runs last storm including 12z mid storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:47 AM, ILoveWinter said: What did the Euro and EPS show for the immediate metro? Looked like the EPS leaned west so we do have that. Expand The EPS matched the op, there were definitely west leaning members but the mean matched the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 2:55 AM, hudsonvalley21 said: Hope most get their power back up before. The 00z NAM I hear is coming in juicy. Expand It's so cold in the house now. I haven't slept more than about 90 minutes at a time since Friday because I'm keeping a fire going in the fireplace. I'm starting to worry about the chimney because I'm not burning the greatest wood at this point. I want to wake up to a hot cup of coffee after a good night's sleep. I want to sit down on a warm toilet seat. I want to wash my hands. I want to take a shower. I want it to be 70* outside today. I'm tired of listening to the drone of generators for 70 hours now. I really want to kick NYSEG right square in the mutha f'n balls for not cutting trees back from the powerlines so this sh*t wouldn't be able to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 12:22 PM, snowman19 said: The EPS matched the op, there were definitely west leaning members but the mean matched the op Expand I strongly disagree that the EPS mean matched the op... there were several more West members as opposed to east members. So that in average would suggest a further west track is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 12:28 PM, allgame830 said: I strongly disagree that the EPS mean matched the op... there were several more West members as opposed to east members. So that in average would suggest a further west track is more likely. Expand Yes the EPS mean is about 50 miles further west than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 12:28 PM, allgame830 said: I strongly disagree that the EPS mean matched the op... there were several more West members as opposed to east members. So that in average would suggest a further west track is more likely. Expand Yea I agree. Anyway, the 12z runs will be telling, lets see whether the CMC/EUR are outliers or are leading the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 12:23 PM, gravitylover said: It's so cold in the house now. I haven't slept more than about 90 minutes at a time since Friday because I'm keeping a fire going in the fireplace. I'm starting to worry about the chimney because I'm not burning the greatest wood at this point. I want to wake up to a hot cup of coffee after a good night's sleep. I want to sit down on a warm toilet seat. I want to wash my hands. I want to take a shower. I want it to be 70* outside today. I'm tired of listening to the drone of generators for 70 hours now. I really want to kick NYSEG right square in the mutha f'n balls for not cutting trees back from the powerlines so this sh*t wouldn't be able to happen! Expand Yea man I feel bad for ya and all the others without power still... I am extremely shocked on how long it’s taking for areas to get the power back... from what I heard 90% will be back by Tuesday night which is a cause of concern because a lot of people will not have the available resources to keep them in the loop for Wednesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 12:30 PM, Neblizzard said: Yes the EPS mean is about 50 miles further west than the OP Expand On 3/5/2018 at 12:30 PM, ILoveWinter said: Yea I agree. Anyway, the 12z runs will be telling, lets see whether the CMC/EUR are outliers or are leading the way. Expand Thank you for agreeing on what the corrext information is!! Snowman19 always looks to post wrong and neglect information... just read bro don’t post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 not really that far off each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 12:08 PM, bluewave said: Probably some ridiculous snowfall rates in the banding with such strong instability. Almost looks like a summer EML with these steep mid-level lapse rates. Showalter Index: -1.29 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable Total Totals Index: 59.51 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable Expand GFS and NAM from 06Z both have 100+ J/kg of CAPE based around 650mb Wed afternoon. That plus some extreme frontogenesis spells a good risk for TSSN if these solutions hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Are we still looking for a 12-18 hour event or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 12:31 PM, allgame830 said: Yea man I feel bad for ya and all the others without power still... I am extremely shocked on how long it’s taking for areas to get the power back... from what I heard 90% will be back by Tuesday night which is a cause of concern because a lot of people will not have the available resources to keep them in the loop for Wednesday storm. Expand I concerned for more tree damage with a heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer67 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What do the winds look like with this one? I just got power back for the first time since Friday afternoon and now we are getting 10+ more inches of wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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