March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

[Rjay]

The active pattern continues with yet another winter storm threatening the area for Wednesday.  

Here's what we know:

1.  A storm is likely as it has solid ensemble support.

2.  Snowman likes this threat so 

3. Bickering in this thread will lead to timeouts. 

Lots of questions remain so specifics are unknown at this time.  Talk about this threat in here.  

Personally, I think our NW posters cash in again but nothing is off the table 

[North and West]

The active pattern continues with yet another winter storm threatening the area for Wednesday.  
Here's what we know:
1.  A storm is likely as it has solid ensemble support.
2.  Snowman likes this threat so 
3. Bickering in this thread will lead to timeouts. 
Lots of questions remain so specifics are unknown at this time.  Talk about this threat in here.  
Personally, I think our NW posters cash in again but nothing is off the table 

Thank you for the update. The family and I are at a Courtyard that has power, so my son and I were able to watch TWC for the first time a while. Got to see their breakdown for this event.


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[EastonSN+]

18z GEFS is too close for comfort. 0z GFS probably comes a bit closer. Obviously means nothing as it could swing further out in later runs.

NAVGEM is furthest offshore.

[Sn0waddict]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

18z GEFS is too close for comfort. 0z GFS probably comes a bit closer. Obviously means nothing as it could swing further out in later runs.

NAVGEM is furthest offshore.

Known bias of the NAVGEM. 

[snywx]

Hopefully those without power can get it back before this storm hits. Many are still in the dark up here

[ForestHillWx]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Thank you for the update. The family and I are at a Courtyard that has power, so my son and I were able to watch TWC for the first time a while. Got to see their breakdown for this event.


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My brother in law in Whippany is out as well. Good luck to you. My power was restored last night at 11:00. Half of Chester is dark currently. 

Phones/internet/cable are out. 

[psv88]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

The active pattern continues with yet another winter storm threatening the area for Wednesday.  

Here's what we know:

1.  A storm is likely as it has solid ensemble support.

2.  Snowman likes this threat so 

3. Bickering in this thread will lead to timeouts. 

Lots of questions remain so specifics are unknown at this time.  Talk about this threat in here.  

Personally, I think our NW posters cash in again but nothing is off the table 

I think the coast gets some decent snow from this one. 

[Santa Claus]

I saw a lot of posts promising a loaded early March pattern and they seem to have proven out well.  Bullet's in the barrel again.

[friedmators]

Dat NAM though. Low off the NC/SC coast. Trough about to go negative. Looks like a bomb.


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[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Dat NAM though. Low off the NC/SC coast. Trough about to go negative. Looks like a bomb.


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I’d rather it not bomb out and go negative too soon. That’ll mean a coast hugger. 

[Ja643y]

Gfs inside the benchmark.. verbatim, probably too close for the immediate coat.  Looks like it goes negative and closes off just south of the east end

[weatherbear5]

Despite what the p-type maps on tropical tidbits may say, the 00z GFS looks like a good hit of snow on the Island to me at least... soundings are below freezing until about 950mb, and surface temps are 36 or so in central LI with a 3-4 degree dew point t-td. There is more of an easterly component to the wind initially, but that should flip to NE fairly quickly should this track verify. For what it's worth, this is laid out fairly well on the snowmaps as well, which shows a bullseye of snow over interior LI despite the p-type maps not showing that much.

I have a hard time believing the GFS's handling of BL temps when there's any kind of T-TD, particularly after its performance during the last storm

 

edit: somehow got 18z soundings, trying to look on a phone is a pain... more like 39-35 which obviously is worse, but still not insurmountable

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

Despite what the p-type maps on tropical tidbits may say, the 00z GFS looks like a good hit of snow on the Island... soundings are below freezing until about 950mb, and surface temps are 36 or so in central LI with a 3-4 degree dew point t-td. There is more of an easterly component to the wind initially, but that should flip to NE fairly quickly should this track verify. For what it's worth, this is laid out fairly well on the snowmaps as well, which shows a bullseye of snow over interior LI despite the p-type maps not showing that much.

I have a hard time believing the GFS's handling of BL temps when there's any kind of T-TD, particularly after its performance during the last storm

Definitely mostly snow.  Eastern Suffolk county maybe not but the air mass is so much better this time and there is high pressure across NE Canada.  Its also a more consolidated classic deepening low than what the last system was

[friedmators]

I’d rather it not bomb out and go negative too soon. That’ll mean a coast hugger. 

Agreed. Just once I’d like not to be worried upto the start of the event.


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[weatherbear5]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Definitely mostly snow.  Eastern Suffolk county maybe not but the air mass is so much better this time and there is high pressure across NE Canada.  Its also a more consolidated classic deepening low than what the last system was

Indeed. Especially if LI gets under the CCB? Yeah, it's probably mostly snow with that track

 

[jm1220]

If it goes SE of Montauk, I think most of us stay snow. Like others have said this is a cooler airmass than the last storm and there should be nice dynamics overhead. The big question is how far west it trends. I could definitely see it go Coast hugger and keep the snow inland. 

[WeatherFeen2000]

Cmc is a great hit for everyone on i95 region

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Cmc is a great hit

Yes, agreed. GGEM is a monster. 985 right around Nantucket at hr 108. Crush job for someone.

[NortheastPAWx]

4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Cmc is a great hit

For who?

Not to try and do Rjay's job, but this kind of stuff needs to be specified in a discussion thread. Not everyone can access the models at any time.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said:

For who?

Not to try and do Rjay's job, but this kind of stuff needs to be specified in a discussion thread. Not everyone can access the models at any time.

GGEM @96

[forkyfork]

it's a compact system and the mid level tracks are perfect. just need it to hold for the next 4 days...

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

For who?

Not to try and do Rjay's job, but this kind of stuff needs to be specified in a discussion thread. Not everyone can access the models at any time.

It's a foot plus for NYC and surrounding areas. Less as you go north and west of 287

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's a foot plus for NYC and surrounding areas. Less as you go north and west of 287

At least NYC/LI has more potential then Friday's windstorm

[BombsAway1288]

This is all encouraging right now but I get the sense that this thing really crushes SNE and not so much NYC metro. Hope I'm wrong and maybe some reverse psychology will work but this has the makings of a SNE special

[David-LI]

Too early to be discussing who gets rain or snow. Too far out, a lot will change.

[sferic]

7 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

This is all encouraging right now but I get the sense that this thing really crushes SNE and not so much NYC metro. Hope I'm wrong and maybe some reverse psychology will work but this has the makings of a SNE special

Explain your reasoning

[David-LI]

If you're already calling for either rain or snow this far out you haven't been following the models for the last few winters.

[Enigma]

7 minutes ago, sferic said:

Explain your reasoning

He has no reason because it doesn't exist. 

[SnowGoose69]

The UKMET looks like it is 995 right over ERN LI at 96 hours.

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

This is all encouraging right now but I get the sense that this thing really crushes SNE and not so much NYC metro. Hope I'm wrong and maybe some reverse psychology will work but this has the makings of a SNE special

This looks to get going off the NC coast. It’ll be plenty developed by the time it gets here. The concern now is how far west it tracks, not that it’s a late bloomer.