Hoosier Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 There was a joke in the banter thread about this storm looking like a pos, hence the title I went with, but in all seriousness, it is looking like there could be some noteworthy accumulating snow especially the farther north you go from I-80 with lesser amounts possible farther south. Also, locally, it appears there may be a window for a bit of LES as the low passes by, if a track south of here occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Another rainer, followed with a DAB.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 We saw the NAM pull some shenanigans with the last storm, so I'm not sure about the southward extent depicted here. But anyway, here are the 18z runs... just through 84 hours for fair comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Lol...the pos storm.... Looks like I miiiiiiiiight be able to get in the "heaviest" swath of snow for this one. Looks like lake enhancement in the second half of the week is looking possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 Thermal profiles are really teetering on Monday afternoon in northern IL on the range of models, especially north of Chicago. It's a low confidence setup in terms of snowfall, as 850 mb temps start out above 0C and there's not really a good CAA push yet. Going to have to rely on enhanced precip rates to try to cool the column just enough for snow. Again low confidence, but there's at least some chance it rips for a while on Monday, especially in that northern row of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I love how the models show a decent swath of snow expanding SE across southern LM, NE IN and NW OH and then it hits about I-75 and just stops rather than continuing east across the rest of northern OH. It just seems to find ways not to snow here in north central OH. Hopefully the backside of this can produce some lake enhanced snows later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Might be a slushfest here, but Monday evening looks pretty interesting, most of the GFS Ensembles showing between 0.2" and 0.5" or so of precip between 0z and 6z Tuesday, and at that point looks like temps should be around freezing. My guess is a few inches of heavy wet snow through this system, but that was my guess for the one last Thursday night and Friday and we nary got a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, wisconsinwx said: Might be a slushfest here, but Monday evening looks pretty interesting, most of the GFS Ensembles showing between 0.2" and 0.5" or so of precip between 0z and 6z Tuesday, and at that point looks like temps should be around freezing. My guess is a few inches of heavy wet snow through this system, but that was my guess for the one last Thursday night and Friday and we nary got a flake. At least this system will already be developed, whereas the last one was just in the process of it. Except with this one, we now have to look at it fizzling out as it moves east. There's always something to ruin it, it seems...But much of the area has a better shot at getting snow from this compared to the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, blackrock said: At least this system will already be developed, whereas the last one was just in the process of it. Except with this one, we now have to look at it fizzling out as it moves east. There's always something to ruin it, it seems...But much of the area has a better shot at getting snow from this compared to the last one. The "fizzling" is actually a good thing in this case to get more people in the snow game. If the system wouldn't be occluding, it would probably just drive right into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: The "fizzling" is actually a good thing in this case to get more people in the snow game. If the system wouldn't be occluding, it would probably just drive right into the Lakes. Yup, exactly. You're definitely right. It's either a select few get pounded.....it strengthens and we get rain...or it "fizzles" and most get a bit. It's been a tough few winters for people who love good snowstorms. Unless you live in SE Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 See, you can even see it on the NAM run. It says, "I'm coming for you, Detroit." as the snow band points right in its direction.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Well MKE upgraded our predictions from 1-2" to 4-5". Now it starts to snow when im tired of it and want spring. Not when I was begging for snow just a couple of weeks ago. Got to love Wisconsin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Now the 00z GFS has snow for all of MN, WI, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, CT, MA, ME, and northern OH. Seems pretty organized. I may have to tell my family members to expect snow in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Lock the 0z GEM in. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018030400&fh=60 LAUGHABLE!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 11 hours ago, blackrock said: See, you can even see it on the NAM run. It says, "I'm coming for you, Detroit." as the snow band points right in its direction.............. Detroit has obviously been a hot spot this winter. And i have to admit almost everything has worked out. But this time they actually show us being a screwzone in this system. We will.see I guess. Only 0.8" needed for a top 20 snow season, 4" for a top 13 and 8" for top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Feeling better and better about this one. Really could use a refresher for the snowpack. Bare spots showing up and I only measured an average of 2" around the yard this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Heaviest rains will fall out by Hawkeye tomorrow. Dry air will be chewing the front edge for much of tomorrow morning, so only expecting the main band in the afternoon to produce decent rains for this area. Looks like a good half inch of rain possible. Dynamics try to change us to a period of wet snow, but don't think we'll have heavy precip falling long enough for that to happen. Most interesting aspect of this system for the QCA will be snow squall potential Tuesday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 Becoming a bit more confident in a changeover to wet snow here tomorrow. Slight slowdown in precip means that most of it probably won't get here until after sunset... and in a marginal situation, not having daylight to deal with doesn't hurt. Even if snow occurs, boundary layer temps are marginal which would limit amounts to minor slushy accumulations. Areas in far northern Illinois still look to stand a better chance of receiving a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Painfully slow pos at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 LOT went advisory north of I-88. Also mentioned possible thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LOT went advisory north of I-88. Also mentioned possible thunder. RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 307 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 ...Period of Heavy Wet Snow Possible Monday Evening... ILZ005-006-012>014-050515- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0014.180305T2200Z-180306T0600Z/ McHenry-Lake IL-Kane-DuPage-Cook- Including the cities of Woodstock, Waukegan, Aurora, Elgin, Wheaton, and Chicago 307 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected. The snow may fall heavy at times Monday evening with snowfall rates up to an inch per hour possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible. * WHERE...McHenry, Lake IL, Kane, DuPage and Cook Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to midnight CST Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 LOT- bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Baum said: LOT- bold. Maybe to some degree, but the afd gave good reasoning for why precip rates could get heavy. The big question of course will be temps. I noticed that lake water temps continue to creep up, and given the onshore flow and urban effects, this seems like one of those that might produce less amounts in the city proper. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAMs are a bit interesting locally after 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 14 hours ago, Baum said: LOT- bold. WWA in Dupage county for 1-2" on grassy areas with light snow possibly mixed with rain. This advisory needs to be walked back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What an interesting morning here in the QC! Precip really got going around 4am, locally and since then we have had the true mixed bag of precip. Started with hvy snow, then sleet, rain, and now some frz. rain and thunder. Slushy accums on surfaces and slick spots this morning has led to a WWA being issued here thru late morning. Precip should switch to all rain by midday, before mixed precip or even all snow returns late this afternoon and early evening. Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 650 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 ...Wintry Weather Expected This Morning, and Again This Afternoon and Evening... .A strong storm system will bring a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow to portions of northeast Iowa and northwest Illinois. A mix of snow and sleet will change over to all rain by late morning, but change back over to mixed precipitation during the afternoon and evening. Expect slick roads conditions for the morning commute. Poor visibility in periods of heavy wet snow is possible, this afternoon and tonight which will result in a wet snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches, and slippery slushy roads. IAZ052-053-065-066-068-ILZ009-015>018-051700- /O.NEW.KDVN.WW.Y.0019.180305T1250Z-180305T1700Z/ Linn-Jones-Cedar-Clinton-Scott-Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL- Bureau-Putnam- Including the cities of Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Tipton, Clinton, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sterling, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, and Hennepin 650 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation, gradually changing to rain by late morning. Additional snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch. * WHERE...Portions of east central Iowa and north central and northwest Illinois. * WHEN...Until 11 AM CST this morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/quadcities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Baum said: WWA in Dupage county for 1-2" on grassy areas with light snow possibly mixed with rain. This advisory needs to be walked back. While it may not verify from any sort of accumulation standard, it may be worthwhile simply due to timing (during the evening rush) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 ^ timing is post rush. In fact the aviation discussion points to an even later start. AFD does a nice job of referencing rates, but actual zone forecasts do not jive with that discussion. I just think the jump to a WWA yesterday afternoon was a bit bold and premature. Happens. Should note I'm of course rooting for surprise totals to justify the issuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Thought I woke up in LAF this morning with the sound of heavy sleet pounding the east windows. Didn't see any snow here, but we have had a glaze of freezing rain, which I definitely didn't expect. Still freezing rain falling now, with an occasional burst of light sleet. Rain gauge is showing 0.09", but some of the liquid has frozen up inside of it, and if we melt the sleet down we would also have more. Probably 1/4" or so in total precip so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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