Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Oh how we pray......

Kevin would leap off the Tolland massif.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah but how can you tell the GFS/NAM are too far NW? Looks the same at h5 to me

subtle differences, bigger  at the surface , dig deep

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Hoth said:

Kevin would leap off the Tolland massif.

I'd hit that

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

subtle differences, bigger  at the surface , dig deep

Oh ok, I didn't check the surface. Thanks

[Damage In Tolland]

Reggie looks great here if you aren’t a queen 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

They've been great here as well.

Regardless of verification scores, violent waffles aren't usually the preferred sequence of forecasts....would have been better served to just toss a 10 spot at KBED for today.

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's trying to shoot east after it gets to about a position due S of central LI.

Sounds like we get more white lightning? 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I'd hit that

I'd hit the RGEM hard. Jesus.

[erfus]

12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Too bad the NWS is disregarding it.

 

This is a couple hours old, but...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

Quote

Preference: non 12Z GFS blend Confidence: Slightly above average Regarding the surface low forecast to track north along the Northeast coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night, ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ensemble trends have not shown much in the way westward/eastward trends since yesterday, but perhaps a subtle shift to the west valid 00Z/08 and 12Z/08. The deterministic guidance has also only shown minor movement since yesterday except the UKMET which has trended west since yesterday through its 00Z/06 cycle and then slightly east with its 12Z/06 cycle. The strength looks similar regarding the surface to 500 mb lows in all of the guidance except early in the forecast regarding a sub-5280 m low situated over Iowa at 12Z. The 12Z NAM/GFS, RAP show a 5280 m contour valid 12Z/07 over the Ohio valley whereas the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC do not. Considering only minor trends in the guidance through today's 12Z cycle, The 12Z GFS surface low track looks to be on the western side of the available model spread while the remaining 12Z guidance is similar to one another. The result is a warmer surface to 850 mb layer in the 12Z GFS compared to the remaining guidance. A growing consensus seems to be for a non 12Z GFS solution for this system through Thursday.

 

[JC-CT]

hr 9 - 18z gfs already looks more like the 12z euro than the 12z gfs

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'd hit the RGEM hard. Jesus.

It’s not great for CT valley .. hopefully elevations won’t matter like it’s showing 

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

dead nutz with current conditions, GFS NAM already too far NW

I really didn't think the differences started showing until tomorrow on the models...

Its really at hour 36 that I think the models really start to diverge.  Normally I see this and think interior whopper on the way but then the EURO jumps way east before resuming the north motion.

If it doesn't make that jump from this panel to the next, it really wouldn't be that much different.  It heads out to that convection out over the ocean.

[Go Kart Mozart]

This looks about right to me:

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not great for CT valley .. hopefully elevations won’t matter like it’s showing 

It has a minimum right over you...like the Euro and Uk.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'd hit the RGEM hard. Jesus.

it’s been consistent in around these parts.

[powderfreak]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It has a minimum right over you...like the Euro and Uk.

lol it cracks me up every time.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not great for CT valley .. hopefully elevations won’t matter like it’s showing 

Ryans map was whack with qpf by the way

[WxBlue]

I don't envy NYC mets right now. They got the most challenging part of this storm IMO.

RGEM at least push the gradient out to sea up here even if QPF isn't as robust. Good track.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It has a minimum right over you...like the Euro and Uk.

?

[powderfreak]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

it’s been consistent in around these parts.

It's the the Eyewall BTV mid-level band... where he's thinking 3-5" and gets 10-12" from the SW to NE banding.

[Thunderblizzard]

GFS looks a little east.

[Buddy1987]

GFS back to ravaging hrs 27-30. SUCK IT dry slot through CT. Mauled this run 

[#NoPoles]

2 hours ago, WintersComing said:

Interesting

I want orange, please

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It has a minimum right over you...like the Euro and Uk.

Neither of those do . Those are meant to be CTRV for BL issues. This has been noted many years now how they misplace . Also downsloping CTRV like 92.Modeis misplace 

[Hoth]

GFS ticks east vs 12z at 30. AWT.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

GFS back to ravaging hrs 27-30. SUCK IT dry slog through CT. Mauled this run 

Hopefully it is smoking crack with thermals...probably is but you never know

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Neither of those do . Those are meant to be CTRV for BL issues. This has been noted many years now how they misplace 

Yes thats climo we know in our state

[powderfreak]

GFS has to go east from 12z.  That's for sure. 

The 12z run from PVD to Sunday River wasn't happening.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Neither of those do . Those are meant to be CTRV for BL issues. This has been noted many years now how they misplace 

Looks like there is a relative lull between two area of forcing, but couldn't care less...hope you get rocked.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Hopefully it is smoking crack with thermals...probably is but you never know

It makes me feel better to see it is sleeting down in VA right now with temps in the mid 40s. The upper levels are much colder this go round. With dynamics, I think we'll do better.