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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The "snowfall QPF" map shows it...Ryan mentioned it was the sfc temps...the alogirthm took some snow away in central CT.

Not sure what the wxbell maps have? I surprisingly haven't seen one posted in here yet....amazing restraint by everyone, lol.

oh the death valley usual spot, meh

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Hey guys, posted this in the NYC thread, but figured i'd ask in here as well:

What do you guys think the start time on this thing is for eastern PA/northern NJ? I will be traveling from western VA to CT and am wondering if I should just drive straight through or be able to stop around 10pm and then get an early start?

E PA and N NJ are going to be underway well before daybreak. Prob just better to drive straight through.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Nothing like your boss cold-calling asking for your snow forecast on the spot in a borderline setup... 

He lives in Chestnut Hill just outside of Boston... I threw out 6-10 (pretty much support only supported by Euro at this point), but nervous that's too high in Boston.

Stakes are raised for me, not for the first time, and can only imagine the nervousness of going on air.

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted

The battle of the thermals in this one.  At hr 39 the GFS has the 925 0C line in far western MA, encompassing virtually all of MA, RI and CT.  Meanwhile the Euro has it only making it to a line from Scituate, Providence, and extreme SE CT.  This is one scenario where I'm not hoping for a compromise, lol.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The battle of the thermals in this one.  At hr 39 the GFS has the 925 0C line in far western MA, encompassing virtually all of MA, RI and CT.  Meanwhile the Euro has it only making it to a line from Scituate, Providence, and extreme SE CT.  This is one scenario where I'm not hoping for a compromise, lol.

FWIW this si the max extent of the RGEM 925mb temps (gets the 0C line right to BOS):

 

 

Mar6_12zRGEM925.jpg

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The battle of the thermals in this one.  At hr 39 the GFS has the 925 0C line in far western MA, encompassing virtually all of MA, RI and CT.  Meanwhile the Euro has it only making it to a line from Scituate, Providence, and extreme SE CT.  This is one scenario where I'm not hoping for a compromise, lol.

Is there anywhere more difficult to forecast

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Snowedin

Snowedin

Posted
Posted

I could care less if we pickup just 3" of paste at this point so long as the lights stay on this time. Going 3 days without power just blows..I send my best wishes to all my fellow snow weenies on here but I'm keeping my expectations very low at this point as far as snowfall goes.

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NeonPeon

NeonPeon

Posted
Posted

I know that on the public policy end of things, people cannot handle probabilistic risk management, and prefer a prediction that seems solid, but in these cases, there's something to be said for upfront acknowledging the uncertainty graphically.  That map the NWS had with the rain/snow line saying "area of greatest uncertainty" is probably the most accurate map seen.  It's a more accurate picture than just showing the general public the output map without it.  People wouldn't view it that way though, they'd see it as a cop out. 

But those areas of uncertainty in otherwise very settled systems with lots of warning ahead of time should really be acknowledged up front.  It's important to know what isn't known as much as what is.  It's the sort of thing that happens with so many storms, whether its the western bound of the outer death band of a large storm, or rain snow, or a north south gradient on a grazer etc etc.  When those things aren't acknowledged, you get "busts" when all that happened is no one had great confidence going in, but were forced to make an educated guess.  Their actual opinion was "it's uncertain" and everything the nws shows when you get into it, whether its the forecast discussion, the snow probabilities, they all reflect this, but I actually liked it being well advertised graphically.

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