Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[CT Rain]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is setting up a classic Codfishsnowman meltdown.

That's more due to BL warmth making the algorithm count some of it as rain. 

[Damage In Tolland]

12-16” works for virtually all of the Northern 2/3 of CT. I’d only go 4-8 in New London County 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jbenedet said:

For where? Highest amounts?

MBY....Jack zone will be a bit more 

[TalcottWx]

5-10" versus my original 8-14" at BOS is where I'd like to lean. Probably closer to 3-6" if I was paid to forecast. But I'm in denial and I believe in the man paste. 

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

 

If you measure the snow properly and clear off the board every six hours, several observers will report around 24" of snow between here and MHT/ASH. I'd be amazed if we're the lolli and see 24" of snow depth the ground because first half wet snow will compress a bit before flakes become drier. 

Good point. I know I'll get another weenie tag for this but I also think the euro is a bit east (25-50 miles) of what will verify. 

[CTWeatherFreak]

With a pretty uniform 1-1.1" qpf across ct and 850s decently <0, what is generating the CT screwgie here?  We've got the same qpf and temps as the surrounding CT areas.

 

Edit...I think Ryan just answered it re Cod... Bl representation. 

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

 

I think that seals my decision to head up to Pit2.  If that jinxes me (and you) and ends up helping Hippy, so be it.

 

Good luck to all.

A wise choice, Going to be seeing close to blizzard conditions to boot.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob 31-32Fish...my guess is at elevation more like 30-31F. But its going to be paste.

Oh boy oh boy oh boy 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MBY....Jack zone will be a bit more 

24" is a still a good upper bound imo. Numbers higher than that will likely be too localized to forecast. Confidence isn't there to go higher...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Good point. I know I'll get another weenie tag for this but I also think the euro is a bit east (25-50 miles) of what will verify. 

Didn't really budge.

[WthrJunkyME]

First time all winter I feel locked in for some great snow and Thursday happens to be my birthday!  Unfortunately, I suffered a heart attack Saturday night.  Thank you to dryslot’s neighbors in Lewiston for saving my sorry ass!  Proud owner of two stents, no restrictions, feel great and will be blowing snow Thursday.   I am in complete awe of medical science right now.

 

 

[SJonesWX]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Good point. I know I'll get another weenie tag for this but I also think the euro is a bit east (25-50 miles) of what will verify. 

50 miles west and you are flirting with the dreaded rain/snow line. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WthrJunkyME said:

First time all winter I feel locked in for some great snow and Thursday happens to be my birthday!  Unfortunately, I suffered a heart attack Saturday night.  Thank you to dryslot’s neighbors in Lewiston for saving my sorry ass!  Proud owner of two stents, no restrictions, feel great and will be blowing snow Thursday.   I am in complete awe of medical science right now.

 

 

Glad you are well.

[CoastalWx]

I feel like somewhere near 128, is going to get a solid 8-10" of playdough falling from the sky. 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

50 miles west and you are flirting with the dreaded rain/snow line. 

Usually the way it is when you get hit the hardest...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like somewhere near 128, is going to get a solid 8-10" of playdough raining from the sky. 

I was thinking that as a worst case scenario for mby

[WthrJunkyME]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Glad you are well.

Thank you, haven’t felt this good in years.  And lucky.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Didn't really budge.

True. It has gotten better for sw zones down to NJ though. UK and euro both hitting the two jack zones fairly consistent now. 

[mahk_webstah]

 I agree with the pope. Long duration, and days and days of QPF between 1.6 and 2.1 on multiple models, Hi ratio CCB snow for the last third of the storm and some fluff Thursday.  Most people in the jackpot zone in Southeast New Hampshire will probably get around 18 inches of snow maybe 20 but there will be places that get into good band.  I would expect there will be bands that time is generating 3 inch an hour snows maybe more.

[Lava Rock]

7 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

First time all winter I feel locked in for some great snow and Thursday happens to be my birthday!  Unfortunately, I suffered a heart attack Saturday night.  Thank you to dryslot’s neighbors in Lewiston for saving my sorry ass!  Proud owner of two stents, no restrictions, feel great and will be blowing snow Thursday.   I am in complete awe of medical science right now.

 

 

wow, glad you're ok.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

First time all winter I feel locked in for some great snow and Thursday happens to be my birthday!  Unfortunately, I suffered a heart attack Saturday night.  Thank you to dryslot’s neighbors in Lewiston for saving my sorry ass!  Proud owner of two stents, no restrictions, feel great and will be blowing snow Thursday.   I am in complete awe of medical science right now.

 

 

Wow, Sorry to hear, Good luck man.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

Thank you, haven’t felt this good in years.  And lucky.

Yea. I echo the well wishes.All this childish stuff with snow means nada but hopefully it brings you some relaxing peace. snowstorms are great how they calm our surroundings and make it look picturesque.

[Cyclone-68]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like somewhere near 128, is going to get a solid 8-10" of playdough falling from the sky. 

I’d take that and run with it at this point 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

Thank you, haven’t felt this good in years.  And lucky.

Damn...young. Take care of yourself.

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

 I agree with the pope. Long duration, and days and days of QPF between 1.6 and 2.1 on multiple models, Hi ratio CCB snow for the last third of the storm and some fluff Thursday.  Most people in the jackpot zone in Southeast New Hampshire will probably get around 18 inches of snow maybe 20 but there will be places that get into good band.  I would expect there will be bands that time is generating 3 inch an hour snows maybe more.

Yea I think there will be an area close by, along Rt 202, from Northwood NH to Rochester NH up to Waterboro ME, that gets the perfect combination of ratios/duration/banding where they'll get the 24-30" amts...But confidence too low to forecast for obvious reasons...

[Cold Miser]

What are the updated thoughts on timing of the start of the precip from west to east?

[Tiktock]

Starting to feel really good about where I am in SE NH on the MA border...north of 495, west of 95.  I'm always nervous about any forceast above 14" so I'm hoping for a foot and will see how things play out.  Worried I may lose what remains of my fence since I never got a chance to repair from last storm......

[78Blizzard]

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’d take that and run with it at this point 

Was thinking the part up in the NW corner of 128. For you and I, not expecting much. Maybe hope for a few at the end. 

[Cold Miser]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh boy oh boy oh boy 

Paul's map has possible mixing all the way to Litchfield county.