Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How we looking West of the River on the Euro Runnaway? 

Sweet looking. See what QPF brings but I dont see dryslot/mxing issues. 12-18” at first goance/thought.

Maybe less I dunno. Euro qpf is not its best asset. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Euro just loves that CT QPF screwgie. Hope it's wrong.

That is setting up a classic Codfishsnowman meltdown.

[WxBlue]

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

General 1-2' is reasonable for this area but I agree, I wouldn't bank on 2'' of QPF or 12:1 ratios. I don't see lollis to 30'' here but I wouldn't be shocked if some towns pull off a couple feet. 

I've been telling people 12-18". Might need to bump the upper limit to 21", but I'm not sure about 24" with such a wet snow.

[dryslot]

Looks like we catch a piece of the ULL here on saturday to boot.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

General 1-2' is reasonable for this area but I agree, I wouldn't bank on 2'' of QPF or 12:1 ratios. I don't see lollis to 30'' here but I wouldn't be shocked if some towns pull off a couple feet. 

I wouldn't even be tossing out the idea if it wasn't for the duration. Snows for 24 hrs, conservatively...

I'm with you, and my original call is highest confidence obviously. But I can easily see a 25-50 sq mile area over the 24" mark.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...some off the deep end.

Most amounts will be under 20".

correct. only isolated 20-24” amounts esp around you and NE.

[78Blizzard]

Furthest N extent of 925 0C line:

 

[tavwtby]

ALY likes the lingering snow, upslope...

 

 Thursday, although the best synoptic forcing should lift north and east of the region, a moist, cyclonic low/mid level flow should promote considerable upslope snow across portions of the Taconics and western New England through a good portion of the day. In fact, Froude numbers from the Nam12 suggest a blocked flow scenario through much of the day, in which greatest vertical motion and most persistent snowfall occurs mainly upstream of higher terrain features such as the Green Mountains, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Furthest N extent of 925 0C line:

 

I'd feel most confident on where the -1C max extent NW is...but if that actually verifies, then places like BOS (esp just off the water) would def get a decent amount of paste.

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

I've been telling people 12-18". Might need to bump the upper limit to 21", but I'm not sure about 24" with such a wet snow.

I bet some weenie town reports it. But I agree, that's a lolli. I actually really like GYX's map and not only because it jackpots ASH...looks about what I would forecast right now. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12:1 will be tough if it winds up paste. Better hope to rot around 31-32F overnight.

That's the saving grace, Bulk of the heavier precip fall overnight up here, maybe we pull off a little higher ratio which would be cake but i'm sticking with 10:1.

[dendrite]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Furthest N extent of 925 0C line:

 

weather.us has freezing level maps, but they are so annoying to use. It should be mapped with ft AGL and not ft ASL.

[WintersComing]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Euro just loves that CT QPF screwgie. Hope it's wrong.

Ya I wouldn't focus to much on that unless we slotted which Euro isn't.  Euro is a solid 1" qpf for most of CT

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

I've been telling people 12-18". Might need to bump the upper limit to 21", but I'm not sure about 24" with such a wet snow.

First half looks like wet snow, 2nd half could be powder.

[JC-CT]

This is cool

https://digital.weather.gov/?zoom=8&lat=42.09179&lon=-71.92909&layers=F000BTTTFTT&region=0&element=18&mxmz=false&barbs=false&subl=TFFFF&units=english&wunits=nautical&coords=latlon&tunits=localt

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Most amounts will be under 20".

No one is disagreeing with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Always take the under on duration of accumulating snows.

[jbenedet]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12:1 will be tough if it winds up paste. Better hope to rot around 31-32F overnight.

I think the first half will be wet snow, second half powder...

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd feel most confident on where the -1C max extent NW is...but if that actually verifies, then places like BOS (esp just off the water) would def get a decent amount of paste.

What kind of temps are we looking at inland? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I know Ray will sneeze at 18” but thats a great event there. Not in his Top 20 unfortunately lol.

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Always take the under on duration of accumulating snows.

This is a good one.

[Logan11]

15 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Americans vs. The Rest of the Globe

More like meso models versus globals.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

No one is disagreeing with that.

My first call was 10-16"...may trim the south side of that and move that range a bit heavier..

[WintersComing]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I know Ray will sneeze at 18” but thats a great event there. Not in his Top 20 unfortunately lol.

 Nah....18" of man snow? Very satisfied.

[WxBlue]

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I bet some weenie town reports it. But I agree, that's a lolli. I actually really like GYX's map and not only because it jackpots ASH...looks about what I would forecast right now. 

 

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

First half looks like wet snow, 2nd half could be powder.

If you measure the snow properly and clear off the board every six hours, several observers will report around 24" of snow between here and MHT/ASH. I'd be amazed if we're the lolli and see 24" of snow depth the ground because first half wet snow will compress a bit before flakes become drier. 

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd feel most confident on where the -1C max extent NW is...but if that actually verifies, then places like BOS (esp just off the water) would def get a decent amount of paste.

Man paste. Elongation. It's game on. 

[Cold Miser]

10 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Euro just loves that CT QPF screwgie. Hope it's wrong.

 

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is setting up a classic Codfishsnowman meltdown.

Ridden this ride before. Multiple storms with similar tracks as what is being shown currently that have laid out the low qpf/ dry slotting.  Happens quite often in my area. 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My first call was 10-16"...may trim the south side of that and move that range a bit heavier..

For where? Highest amounts?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What kind of temps are we looking at inland? 

Prob 31-32Fish...my guess is at elevation more like 30-31F. But its going to be paste.