Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[WintersComing]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's pretty hard to hate this threat as it stands now...not many negatives outside of the far southeast areas. 

I'm just a bit worried about these recent eastward tics.....hopefully we don't end up losing it OTS

[dryslot]

Probably one of the more stable threats we have had in a long time, WFO's have anywhere from 70-90% snow probs out at this lead.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

All the eps members have snow, not a huge disparity amongst them for d3.5. Confidence is soaring this morning. 

[CoastalWx]

Re last storm, the euro was at least stable being further SE. The GFS was south, then over ALB then back SE again.  Just beware of subtle shifts.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

I'm just a bit worried about these recent eastward tics.....hopefully we don't end up losing it OTS

zero eastward ticks on eps. In fact, there are more west hits than east ones. 

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Re last storm, the euro was at least stable being further SE. The GFS was south, then over ALB then back SE again.  Just beware of subtle shifts.

This

 

[WintersComing]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

zero eastward ticks on eps. In fact, there are more west hits than east ones. 

Not saying a complete miss but it was mentioned before that this is a fairly compact storm. Track shifts either direction seems like it will make a big difference.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

I'm just a bit worried about these recent eastward tics.....hopefully we don't end up losing it OTS

I'd be pretty surprised if this got lost to the east. The trough on all guidance goes negative pretty early on. The block is what prevents this from going up powderfreak's fanny. 

 

[512high]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Re last storm, the euro was at least stable being further SE. The GFS was south, then over ALB then back SE again.  Just beware of subtle shifts.

Scott, does this have the chance of a Miller type forming? Or no chance, Not sure if Tip said wasn't really a fast mover?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

Not saying a complete miss but it was mentioned before that this is a fairly compact storm. Track shifts either direction seems like it will make a big difference.

Right, agree. But there have been zero recent eastward tics. 1 euro op run being east of gfs and cmc doesnt concern me.....esp when it goes against the majority of the eps members. Basically I see the euro op as the far right goalpost atm.

[CoastalWx]

This isn't going out to sea.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott, does this have the chance of a Miller type forming? Or no chance, Not sure if Tip said wasn't really a fast mover?

It's a redevloper, but doesn't matter how you classify it really.

[jbenedet]

 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be pretty surprised if this got lost to the east. The trough on all guidance goes negative pretty early on. The block is what prevents this from going up powderfreak's fanny. 

 

Yes I’m with you. I think this will be tucked in, close to the coast in the GOM. I can see this tracking over the cape before backing in and stacking at H5. We will also want to watch closely how much of the Gulf of Mexico she can tap—we know how that can impact downstream UL height rises...

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right, agree. But there have been zero recent eastward tics. 1 euro op run being east of gfs and cmc doesnt concern me.....esp when it goes against the majority of the eps members. Basically I see the euro op as the far right goalpost atm.

The EPS did tick a bit SE from 12z yesterday to 00z last night.  Same with GEM I believe.  Not overly worried but just something to watch with a compact system.

[CoastalWx]

Don't forget mid levels argue for those with CT fetishes.

[jbenedet]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's a redevloper, but doesn't matter how you classify it really.

I can see a sharper, better defined southern stream shortwave with this. It’s almost a Miller A/B hybrid if you will.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't forget mid levels argue for those with CT fetishes.

Yeah the OP euro would prob give CT a lot more than the qpf queens are expecting. 

[WintersComing]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This isn't going out to sea.

I'll retract the OTS....I'm just saying 50 miles either way seems like it can make a big difference in totals and qpf due to the compact nature of this.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3+ days out, but would Ray be playing with a CF as currently depicted?  GFS looks like he would

[CoastalWx]

Also re GFS, that dryslots pretty much to ORH and Kev. May want that to be further east there. But, the GFS is the most wrapped up too. I suppose Runaway would like that though.

[WintersComing]

Either way this is a much more promising setup than the last one.

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This isn't going out to sea.

There's a pretty wide range between major hit and out-to-sea.  I do think this is pretty much going to wind up a big Ray-Jeff jackpot.  Decent hit elsewhere, warning for many.  Pretty EC-like.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

Either way this is a much more promising setup than the last one.

Yep.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

I'll retract the OTS....I'm just saying 50 miles either way seems like it can make a big difference in totals and qpf due to the compact nature of this.

Deff. And i can see now how the 0z eps mean is on the BM while Sat 12z was inside. So ok there. They both still end up about the same position in the GOM though. So most likely its the timing of the phase and when it gets tugged in where they differentiate.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

There's a pretty wide range between major hit and out-to-sea.  I do think this is pretty much going to wind up a big Ray-Jeff jackpot.  Decent hit elsewhere, warning for many.  Pretty EC-like.

Where you see this? the range is tight imo. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where you see this? the range is tight imo. 

You misread my comment.......I was not referencing model depictions.  There was a comment about this going out to see which Will and Scott both said they don't see that happening.  What I was saying is that there's a range between 'major hit' and 'out-to-sea'.

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deff. And i can see now how the 0z eps mean is on the BM while Sat 12z was inside. So ok there. They both still end up about the same position in the GOM though. So most likely its the timing of the phase and when it gets tugged in where they differentiate.

Ya not huge difference but just something to keep an eye out for.  GFS has not waivered a bit where Euro seems to be more of a wobbler at the moment.  Hopefully the 12z's today lock it in a bit more.

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deff. And i can see now how the 0z eps mean is on the BM while Sat 12z was inside. So ok there. They both still end up about the same position in the GOM though. So most likely its the timing of the phase and when it gets tugged in where they differentiate.

This. 

[Henry's Weather]

What's the ceiling for this event? Heard some people say it won't be more than 6 inches, while others are more bullish.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

What's the ceiling for this event? Heard some people say it won't be more than 6 inches, while others are more bullish.

The ceiling of def higher than 6". Ceiling is prob 15-18" or something in a weenie band. But just because that is the ceiling, it doesn't mean it will happen.