Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Buddy1987]

Just now, JC-CT said:

JMA for those on the line, cold and waaay east.

Isn't JMA known to be usually too amped?

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

JMA for those on the line, cold and waaay east.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

When does ukie come out

About 10-15 min

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Many of us are gun shy after the last debacle.  On Friday we had to overcome a boatload of puke.

While not extremely cold, we should be in better shape.  Weenies crossed.   Ride the Euro

 You and I have very little to worry about outside of the GFS dry slot scenario but I have not bought into that yet.  

[forkyfork]

i don't buy all that precip so close to the low on the her dips. i also think there will be a last minute pull east like there usually is with miller b's

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Isn't JMA known to be usually too amped?

Sometimes beyond 48 hours that’s the case.  Inside that it usually begins chasing the better models but that’s a wild track 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

This is my concern Thou what does hr 39 SHOW when heavies reach ne mass .

Longitude ftw .  

[ORH_wxman]

We can actually get a sneak peak at the ukie out to 36hours on plymouth for a few levels....here is 500 and 850....it's definitely east of the american guidance

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i don't buy all that precip so close to the low on the her dips. i also think there will be a last minute pull east like there usually is with miller b's

That is what I have been arguing all along, but plenty of good counter points..we shall see.

[MarkO]

9 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

 

Good, was about to debbie post that it has me above freezing just at the surface the entire event.

You're fine. My concern south and east of ASH. I think I pound wet snow for hours, similar to the Halloween '11 event, but end up with 5" of mashed from 1.5" of qpf.

[Bostonseminole]

Lol at the bride jumping because of the gfs/nam combo


.

[bobbutts]

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Brian,  these sounding pages are great.  I can understand them better than Skew T's.  What site do you use?

Not sure what he's using but I find these images to be the easiest to digest.  Unfortunately the closest spot to you is kcon.

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NH&stn=KCON&model=gfs&time=current&field=tempa

 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We can actually get a sneak peak at the ukie out to 36hours on plymouth for a few levels....here is 500 and 850....it's definitely east of the american guidance

 

 

Def man! The American models have that low pegged against the NJ coastline. Good to see for people. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is my concern and Its realistic.

Longitude ftw . Cp of e ma torched 

Man that is a Death band for CT...Holy Smokes on that model..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

UK has been steadfast past several runs as the compromise. It will be a very fun day today pulling the tracks to our advantage.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

Lol at the bride jumping because of the gfs/nam combo


.

A little easier to say that now that you know you have two pieces of foreign guidance to counter it.

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We can actually get a sneak peak at the ukie out to 36hours on plymouth for a few levels....here is 500 and 850....it's definitely east of the american guidance

Lets be honest, the American guidance is fun to look at but all of us out west know its wrong with that look.

I agree with the tick east as we arrive at go-time, the RIP Messenger east tick we heard about for years on WWBB and EUSWX. 

I don't think much has changed.  Rain isn't reaching 495-395 zone in SNE.  Might be a pasty low ratio snow but it'll tug east enough to snow.  The only wild card is once again the antecedent air mass is not very good.  If we had highs in the 20s today or something, it'd be a no brainer.  At least it won't have time to warm up tomorrow before it really starts precipitating.

[dryslot]

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

A little easier to say that now that you know you have two pieces of foreign guidance to counter it.

Exactly 

Whoa

Did we just agree

[SnowGoose69]

The UKMET can have an east bias but it’s more common on deep lows.  This system isn’t deep enough IMO for that bias to play in as much 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Lets be honest, the American guidance is fun to look at but all of us out west know its wrong with that look.

I agree with the tick east as we arrive at go-time, the RIP Messenger east tick we heard about for years on WWBB and EUSWX. 

I don't think much has changed.  Rain isn't reaching 495-395 zone in SNE.  Might be a pasty low ratio snow but it'll tug east enough to snow.  The only wild card is once again the antecedent air mass is not very good.  If we had highs in the 20s today or something, it'd be a no brainer.  At least it won't have time to warm up tomorrow before it really starts precipitating.

Ah!! EUSWX the good ole days!

[TalcottWx]

Bottom line.. No matter how good the king is.. It has been wrong before. Never feels great when everything caves around it and you have to wait until 1pm. Anxious weenies. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thank you Jeff/Dryslut for posting the pic the right way...lol

I hate that model just for that reason alone

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I really wanna see se mass and boston pasted back to the dark ages like scooter

[WintersComing]

Well I think Euro will tell the tale as this point.....if if holds...the line in the sand will be drawn and we'll see who the winner(s) are.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Well I think Euro will tell the tale as this point.....if if holds...the line in the sand will be drawn and we'll see who the winner(s) are.

The king may dance Around until 0z tonite

What happend to Little  Stall idea..gone?

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Well I think Euro will tell the tale as this point.....if if holds...the line in the sand will be drawn and we'll see who the winner(s) are.

Compromise.  Near ACK to near the east point of the Elbow or a little east of there, is my call as it has sort of looked for a few days.

The main thing though is the trajectory it is taking when it passes those areas IMO.

[WintersComing]

Oh....and don't forget about our friend the WRF-ARW!!

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Oh....and don't forget about our friend the WRF-ARW!!

Congrats on the dry slot?

[powderfreak]

12z GGEM is what I'm leaning towards... as much of an un-manned firehose that model is, that solution looks pretty reasonable for surface track.