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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
Just now, dendrite said:

LWM at 36hr.. 


Date: 36 hour AVN valid 0Z THU  8 MAR 18
Station: 42.72,-71.12
Latitude:   42.72
Longitude: -71.12
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    23                                                                 
SFC  995    60   4.0   2.0  87  2.0   3.1  68  17 277.5 278.2 276.5 289.6  4.42
  2  950   438   1.2   0.6  96  0.6   1.0  72  40 278.4 279.1 276.6 290.0  4.20
  3  900   871  -1.4  -1.5 100  0.1  -1.4  77  46 280.0 280.7 277.0 290.6  3.81
  4  850  1325  -3.4  -3.6  99  0.2  -3.5  90  47 282.5 283.1 277.8 292.3  3.44
  5  800  1803  -5.2  -5.4  99  0.2  -5.3 105  45 285.6 286.2 279.0 294.8  3.20
  6  750  2308  -7.2  -7.4  99  0.1  -7.3 115  41 288.7 289.2 280.1 297.3  2.93
  7  700  2844  -9.4  -9.5  99  0.1  -9.4 125  38 292.1 292.6 281.3 300.0  2.66
  8  650  3415 -11.0 -11.2  99  0.1 -11.1 141  37 296.5 297.0 283.0 304.1  2.51
  9  600  4027 -14.4 -14.6  98  0.2 -14.5 149  36 299.5 299.8 283.7 305.8  2.05

 

It's close with a 950 wetbulb of 33F. I don't buy 40/36 at the sfc with 1.25" in 6hrs about to move in.

I'm not disputing it won't start as snow. But the meat and potatoes will be rain on the coastal plain. The gradient is 495/ASH

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MarkO said:

I hear ya, I'm aware of it's warm surface bias, but I'm still shocked folks in the 128/495 belt think a PVD/BOS track is a white one. This system stinks like the last.

Much better antecedent airmass this time around.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Jesus H Chr_t!!!  The Hi Res Reggie demolishes lol.

We have to do our best praying tonight that it and its lower resolution brother have the ‘middle ground’ between nam/gfs and euro. It looks like the UK but zonked on qpf lol. 

It’s actually more tucked than nam/gfs just colder and more tight with its precip shield.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MarkO said:

And after 2" of snow, it rained all the way up to my cabin. Surface levels were cooked for you as well for most of it. Enjoy this one, it's got your name all over it!

Don't pay attention to the GFS lowest levels...if the track actually goes over interior E MA, then it will be trouble...but it probably won't.

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MarkO said:

And after 2" of snow, it rained all the way up to my cabin. Surface levels were cooked for you as well for most of it. Enjoy this one, it's got your name all over it!

We aren't cooling the column from 850mb down this time around, and it isn't going to be 40F in the BL. Some minor warmth at like 950 mb is going to get washed out easily in the interior. 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Similar track to previous run. Was obviously hoping for a jog east towards Euro. We knew going in that this year would have a steep gradient in terms of seasonal snowfall, and once again, it looks like a Concord, NH north storm. Enjoy Dendrite, Gene.

Mark,  don't congrad me yet.  Im in the dreaded White Mountain snow hole. 

Hum,  NAM gives me 1.6".   GFS has the snowhole with about .4" of precip.  (Look at your place in Thorton, even worse!)  With GFS higher resolution it makes it impossible for me to really know.  Im guessing perhaps 1" of qpf and with better ratios at my elevation maybe 14"?  On the other hand I always seem to get stuck in the 9-11" range with noreasters.  Maybe a 990mb storm will be better than a 975mb monster.  Like Dendrite says we do better with a SWFE.  That stall down near Boston would be sweet for me stalling the heaviest snow over me for a while?

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don't pay attention to the GFS lowest levels...if the track actually goes over interior E MA, then it will be trouble...but it probably won't.

Good, was about to debbie post that it has me above freezing just at the surface the entire event.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

I said I'd wait until 12z today before getting fully invested in this one after the last disappointment.  If the Euro confirms what we've seen thus far, I'm glad I waited.  That's how it's been around these parts this winter.

The problem is the Euro isn’t going to make that sort of jump in one run if and I say big if that the GFS is right.  You would need to see a sizeable jump though.  If it holds or ticks east I think the GFS idea is an auto toss at that point 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

LWM at 36hr.. 


Date: 36 hour AVN valid 0Z THU  8 MAR 18
Station: 42.72,-71.12
Latitude:   42.72
Longitude: -71.12
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    23                                                                 
SFC  995    60   4.0   2.0  87  2.0   3.1  68  17 277.5 278.2 276.5 289.6  4.42
  2  950   438   1.2   0.6  96  0.6   1.0  72  40 278.4 279.1 276.6 290.0  4.20
  3  900   871  -1.4  -1.5 100  0.1  -1.4  77  46 280.0 280.7 277.0 290.6  3.81
  4  850  1325  -3.4  -3.6  99  0.2  -3.5  90  47 282.5 283.1 277.8 292.3  3.44
  5  800  1803  -5.2  -5.4  99  0.2  -5.3 105  45 285.6 286.2 279.0 294.8  3.20
  6  750  2308  -7.2  -7.4  99  0.1  -7.3 115  41 288.7 289.2 280.1 297.3  2.93
  7  700  2844  -9.4  -9.5  99  0.1  -9.4 125  38 292.1 292.6 281.3 300.0  2.66
  8  650  3415 -11.0 -11.2  99  0.1 -11.1 141  37 296.5 297.0 283.0 304.1  2.51
  9  600  4027 -14.4 -14.6  98  0.2 -14.5 149  36 299.5 299.8 283.7 305.8  2.05

 

It's close with a 950 wetbulb of 33F. I don't buy 40/36 at the sfc with 1.25" in 6hrs about to move in.

Brian,  these sounding pages are great.  I can understand them better than Skew T's.  What site do you use?

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, blizzard24 said:

to many people change their forecast every time models come out . i dont and low hasnt even formed yet . dont worry about the dry slot because chance of where they show wont be in that area   or might not have a dry slot or just little one .

hey, little dry slot is what Jeff calls his...

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Many of us are gun shy after the last debacle.  On Friday we had to overcome a boatload of puke.

While not extremely cold, we should be in better shape.  Weenies crossed.   Ride the Euro

Scars run deep.

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