Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are you smoking?

We get pasted that run.

I see lower accumulations for a big chunk of "sort of interior" e /ne mass. Temps smell like wet wet snow.

Runny mashed taters

If we had a ideal high orientation id be more Bullish 

 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Model output for gfs on TT and pivotal is weird too - missing hours and maps. We toss.

I can see it on weatherbell and its probably better most cant see it anyways.....................

[MarkO]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are you smoking?

We get pasted that run.

 

[powderfreak]

Now that's the GFS/NAM runs we needed up here.

Wow what a change at 12z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I see lower accumulations for a big chunk of "sort of interior" e /ne mass. Temps smell like wet wet snow.

 

We are getting a warning event...you can lock that. Won't jackpot, but so be it. 

[dendrite]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Now that's the GFS/NAM runs we needed up here.

Here's the dreaded bad sign for SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

 

[Whineminster]

40 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm really liking these west tracks, Riding out of Eustis this weekend to Jackman, and again next weekend too, Rather maximize the returns there and the ski areas, The more the better up there, No use for it down this way now, Were done as its been to warm, Lost the base, And a lot of brooks and bogs are opened up on our trail system so doesn't matter how much snow we receive, Its not rideable.

I was planning on riding the Brookline and Hollis trails on Thursday....you're saying I shouldn't? 

[powderfreak]

Just now, dendrite said:

Here's the dreaded bad sign for SNE.

It's over Sugarloaf at hour 60 lol.

[DomNH]

Lol chuck that sounding as far as you can possibly throw it.

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Here's the dreaded bad sign for SNE.

KOD

[MarkO]

cat paws would have to survive 4000' of above freezing temps with surface temp at 40F... Maybe I'm smoking crack, but I just don't see it.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Temps aside...you're almost done at that point in time anyway.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

I was planning on riding the Brookline and Hollis trails on Thursday....you're saying I shouldn't? 

Airboat?

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Here's the dreaded bad sign for SNE.

Nah! It's on an island with this right now. All the other models bomb everyone thus far.

[DomNH]

That's an annhilation N and W of 495 on the GFS. We take. 

[dendrite]

Just now, MarkO said:

cat paws would have to survive 4000' of above freezing temps with surface temp at 40F... Maybe I'm smoking crack, but I just don't see it.

GFS BL LOL

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It's over Sugarloaf at hour 60 lol.

It almost eventually comes around to your area (well.. a bit north)

Funny run

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

58 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Except iceberg is generally correct when he laments about his area missing out.

And theres a difference about missing out and making one post of ‘dang I missed 20” by 25 miles’ then the constant woah me some portray.

Anyhow, sorrry to derail but that uncalled for by BarcZone.

Nice 12z rgem run, lets go!

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Airboat?

Harsh...  If they rain, I rain

[Whineminster]

Just now, dryslot said:

Airboat?

They'll be open.  20" of snow with no base is plenty to ride local trails, don't be scared. 

[Logan11]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

B.C the pattern supports that and gefs at 6z Were honking

Another 18" for Hunter, 24" is possible if deformation does it's job well.  I thought the 3 km NAM might sniff it out. 

[DomNH]

It's not going to be 40F in Tyngsborough at 06z on Thursday. 

[Cold Miser]

47 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You've been watching Titanic haven't you...

Ha. There was a quote with that word used in that movie. 

[powderfreak]

Jackpot Catskills with 18" on snow maps.  

Can they do 50"+ this week?

[J Paul Gordon]

Has the track of this thing changed radically, or is it just curving back into Maine with an occlusion? 

[TalcottWx]

Sounds absolutely terrible here. An absolute disaster. Time for summer if euro is warm. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Not expecting the Euro to jump all the way back and track this thing over Plymouth (it was east of ACK last night), but if it brings it back to over the Cape, would have to lean with a Canal track then. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Seeing as we’ve all realized the Gfs is tossed and no one is using it except Freak.. I do think it’s a very important UKIE run today 

[dendrite]

LWM at 36hr..

Date: 36 hour AVN valid 0Z THU  8 MAR 18
Station: 42.72,-71.12
Latitude:   42.72
Longitude: -71.12
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    23                                                                 
SFC  995    60   4.0   2.0  87  2.0   3.1  68  17 277.5 278.2 276.5 289.6  4.42
  2  950   438   1.2   0.6  96  0.6   1.0  72  40 278.4 279.1 276.6 290.0  4.20
  3  900   871  -1.4  -1.5 100  0.1  -1.4  77  46 280.0 280.7 277.0 290.6  3.81
  4  850  1325  -3.4  -3.6  99  0.2  -3.5  90  47 282.5 283.1 277.8 292.3  3.44
  5  800  1803  -5.2  -5.4  99  0.2  -5.3 105  45 285.6 286.2 279.0 294.8  3.20
  6  750  2308  -7.2  -7.4  99  0.1  -7.3 115  41 288.7 289.2 280.1 297.3  2.93
  7  700  2844  -9.4  -9.5  99  0.1  -9.4 125  38 292.1 292.6 281.3 300.0  2.66
  8  650  3415 -11.0 -11.2  99  0.1 -11.1 141  37 296.5 297.0 283.0 304.1  2.51
  9  600  4027 -14.4 -14.6  98  0.2 -14.5 149  36 299.5 299.8 283.7 305.8  2.05

 

It's close with a 950 wetbulb of 33F. I don't buy 40/36 at the sfc with 1.25" in 6hrs about to move in.