Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[MarkO]

I think if I bust Ray, it's the NW 495 area. I think the steep gradient is over my backyard. I'm thinking slightly colder but similar gradient to the Halloween storm 2011.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

When WPC honks tucked and scooter does as well...im thinking 495 snow storm.

E inflow w out some colder airmass in place is usually issues for about LWM-BED imo thou well see what actually happens

Berks have been safest place for a shellacking fwiw

[Hoth]

8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

We wait for an absolution.  One that may never come nor satisfy. 

You've been watching Titanic haven't you...

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That look would cook essex county cept Maybe methuen, no?

Yeah it's tough on Essex....like 495 is dividing line up in N Essex...but then it becomes 128 a littl further south because Ray does well on RGEM.

[highways1]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'll be fine...even in the 12z NAM scenario you are still mostly snow....though admittedly close to a lot less. But I doubt the 12z NAM takes this all the way into the endzone....it's going to give some back IMHO.

Thanks, might be worth riding the line. Definitely would've been toast at my old place in Brookline no question there.

[MarkO]

2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Looks pretty good.

That's prettymuch my map, but I'd go with less in central RI in the Providence area. Not too often/ever will it snow in PVD while I'm liquid.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's good there....almost all snow.

Where does 700 mb track?

[BRSno]

How much rain should I expect before any change over? Over 1"?

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

That's prettymuch my map, but I'd go with less in central RI in the Providence area. Not too often/ever will it snow in PVD while I'm liquid.

More falls after hr 45 in CNE and NNE. A lot more.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Another Flip phone

I'm really liking these west tracks, Riding out of Eustis this weekend to Jackman, and again next weekend too, Rather maximize the returns there and the ski areas, The more the better up there, No use for it down this way now, Were done as its been to warm, Lost the base, And a lot of brooks and bogs are opened up on our trail system so doesn't matter how much snow we receive, Its not rideable.

[dryslot]

Just now, jbenedet said:

More falls after hr 45 in CNE and NNE. A lot more.

It was just getting going.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where does 700 mb track?

don;'t know....can't see it yet.

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. 
Tensions are high.  People are stealing other people's snow...Philly cops have been hired to grease bridge railings and poles all over Eastern SNE to keep depressed snow weenies from climbing them...and yet we wait...We wait for an absolution.  One that may never come nor satisfy. 

The CT peeps are at complaining about either 12" or 18" at this point. 

 

[TheCloser24]

From Ryan's Twitter: Morning update: more concerned with dry slot and mixing in Hartford area points SE. This will hold accumulations down some. Heaviest snow expected to be in NW corner.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

don;'t know....can't see it yet.

Seems like the key is what is the evolution of the 500-700 low. How compact or how stretched? I do think there are legit dry slot concerns with mid level lows heading over NYC

[Baroclinic Zone]

I don't care if I see 0", 12" or 2" of rain.  It's a storm and it's gonna do whatever the hell it wants.  All I can do is interject my opinion on what a model shows.  There is no emotion in that.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

From Ryan's Twitter: Morning update: more concerned with dry slot and mixing in Hartford area points SE. This will hold accumulations down some. Heaviest snow expected to be in NW corner.

Mix to Hartford? 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't care if I see 0", 12" or 2" of rain.  It's a storm and it's gonna do whatever the hell it wants.  All I can do is interject my opinion on what a model shows.  There is no emotion in that.

Careful, Some may look at this as a melt.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Seems like the key is what is the evolution of the 500-700 low. How compact or how stretched? I do think there are legit dry slot concerns with mid level lows heading over NYC

The stretching of the midlevels also slows the storm down....so it's doubly important for amounts. The more robust circular midlevels that track further west are going to make this mostly a 6-10 hour storm....while the elongated ones could double the amount of time for steady snow.

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Mix to Hartford? 

this is what i was mentioning this morning and possibly further than that....dry slot is something to think about too

[Chrisrotary12]

Ugh......hate a dry slot.

[CoastalWx]

This storm reminds me of that Feb 2014 storm where the lift came in, and areas like Taunton up through jerry's old  hood flipped to parachutes and got a quick 4" in two hours. Once that went by, it went back to rain. I could see that in borderline areas. You may start as RASN, flip to paste for a few to several hours before going to rain again. The RGEM kind of shows this.

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The stretching of the midlevels also slows the storm down....so it's doubly important for amounts. The more robust circular midlevels that track further west are going to make this mostly a 6-10 hour storm....while the elongated ones could double the amount of time for steady snow.

exactly

[dryslot]

That dryslot is real in these more western tracks, So there should be some legit concerns for some.

[MarkO]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

More falls after hr 45 in CNE and NNE. A lot more.

I didn't even notice that was the 45 hr map. But ok, yeah, I like where it puts the sharp cutoff/gradient

[Cyclone-68]

I hope this works out for the eastern SNE folks. I’d hate to have the next exciting weather event become a “see text” in mid June 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That dryslot is real in these more western tracks, So there should be some legit concerns for some.

you would know, wouldn't you

[dryslot]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

I hope this works out for the eastern SNE folks. I’d hate to have the next exciting weather event become a “see text” in mid June 

There is more in the pipeline just in the next 10 days before moving on to June............lol

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

you would know, wouldn't you

of course

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There is more in the pipeline just in the next 10 days before moving on to June............lol

Yeah, likely more rain in the drain pipe.