Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WintersComing said:

I’m betting the gfs comes back east at 12 z.


.

I think it will, but we'll see.

[ORH_wxman]

Reggie is east of 06z through 36 hours.

[tavwtby]

53 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Very interesting double low at hr 27 with primary further east

Fuji look?

[MarkO]

This is a rain event for Boston south and east. 1-3 before the deluge inside 128, 3-6 for 128-495, 6-8 for Merrimack Valley-Coastal NH, and 8-12+ for Worcester Hills, Southern NH North and West.

[dryslot]

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MarkO said:

This is a rain event for Boston south and east. 1-3 before the deluge inside 128, 3-6 for 128-495, 6-8 for Merrimack Valley-Coastal NH, and 8-12+ for Worcester Hills, Southern NH North and West.

Too low.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, MarkO said:

This is a rain event for Boston south and east. 1-3 before the deluge inside 128, 3-6 for 128-495, 6-8 for Merrimack Valley-Coastal NH, and 8-12+ for Worcester Hills, Southern NH North and West.

I love these definitive statements despite disagreement among models. Just like last storm. 

Some are due for an absolute dud of a forecast. 

[ORH_wxman]

Reggie looks to track it over about ACK/Elbow and then spin it east of BOS/North Shore and N of P-town for a while. .

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You do the same exact ****. 

 Except iceberg is generally correct when he laments about his area missing out.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, MarkO said:

This is a rain event for Bleadn south and east. 1-3 before the deluge inside 128, 3-6 for 128-495, 6-8 for Merrimack Valley-Coastal NH, and 8-12+ for Worcester Hills, Southern NH North and West.

Very plausable

If we Had a colder airmass in place maybe different but 495 Or close maybe diving line if this is tucky

[ORH_wxman]

On the ptype maps, it looks like RGEM has 128 as a transition line for a lot of the storm.

[TalcottWx]

12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Pretty obvious at H5 as early as 24 hours that this would tuck more and threaten our snow here... we will need trough to get squashed and the system to kick east after it closes like last night's runs, otherwise we are warm and dryslot. 12z Euro will be critical guidance for us.

I said that early on but I remember a couple chuckled about it 

[Buddy1987]

ICON is pretty darn tucked against the Jersey coast at 30 as well.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

On the ptype maps, it looks like RGEM has 128 as a transition line for a lot of the storm.

We beast shed. Ray rejoice.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

On the ptype maps, it looks like RGEM has 128 as a transition line for a lot of the storm.

Any significant dry slot issues you can see on Reggie?

[TalcottWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

On the ptype maps, it looks like RGEM has 128 as a transition line for a lot of the storm.

What would that scenario mean for totals in Boston? I'm mobile

[Cold Miser]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What? you have be effin kidding me.

lol. 
Tensions are high.  People are stealing other people's snow...Philly cops have been hired to grease bridge railings and poles all over Eastern SNE to keep depressed snow weenies from climbing them...and yet we wait...We wait for an absolution.  One that may never come nor satisfy. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I love these definitive statements despite disagreement among models. Just like last storm. 

Some are due for an absolute dud of a forecast. 

Like last time...

Go with Harv

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We beast shed. Ray rejoice.

I'll admit that some of the guidance has me spooked a bit out near 495 where I am....but in the end, I think I should be fine at 400 feet with some longitude. I think the 12zNAM/06zGFS would have to take all the marbles against the Euro in basically a clean sweep to bring big trouble out here....but you still get nervous.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Like last time...

Go with Harv

We wait for 12z models

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

What would that scenario mean for totals in Boston? I'm mobile

Cooked....

[Buddy1987]

Man ICON is super tucked in all the way through 36 and then slowly begins to migrate in more of an easterly direction. Looks darn close to actually going over south facing shore of Long Island this run.

[highways1]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll admit that some of the guidance has me spooked a bit out near 495 where I am....but in the end, I think I should be fine at 400 feet with some longitude. I think the 12zNAM/06zGFS would have to take all the marbles against the Euro in basically a clean sweep to bring big trouble out here....but you still get nervous.

I'm wondering if I'm ok out here even. I have an extra 100' but didn't see this much of tick west this close in coming. At least I'll see snow this time, last storm was definitely humbling.

[Damage In Tolland]

What’s Reggie looking for NW RI to CT?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cooked..

That look would cook essex county cept Maybe methuen, no?

[WintersComing]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s Reggie looking for NW RI to CT?

Looks pretty good.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

What would that scenario mean for totals in Boston? I'm mobile

Another Flip phone

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, highways1 said:

I'm wondering if I'm ok out here even. I have an extra 100' but didn't see this much of tick west this close in coming. At least I'll see snow this time, last storm was definitely humbling.

You'll be fine...even in the 12z NAM scenario you are still mostly snow....though admittedly close to a lot less. But I doubt the 12z NAM takes this all the way into the endzone....it's going to give some back IMHO.

[WintersComing]

Does seem to want to dry slot a bit as well

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s Reggie looking for NW RI to CT?

It's good there....almost all snow.