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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The circulation tightens up by the time it gets to SE MA, so we should see the gradient tighten up on the North/West side of the circulation with heights crashing. I'm not concerned for us. Hampton beach area on south, is getting close to some taint, I agree...but that was already well reflected in the EPS probs.

 

9 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Embrace the canal track and play with fire. That's the prime spot for a S NH crusher. 

 

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You need to sniff the taint to get the goods......................:lol:

We're already about to pass the annual average of snow so might as well go big or go home on this one. 

I'm still learning about this area's climatology with big storms so I have no idea if the track over the Canal is close or not. NAM clown map (lol) has us (Dover) very close to the gradient zone. I guess I'm getting greedy and want to beat my 15" record.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hopefully I don’t have to listen to how good the Euro did. IF it caves, it was schooled by the other models, which have had little here for days.

 

I wouldn't call it a cave when it subtly shifts west since you are on the edge anyways. Those pretty algorithms are bullsh*t. 

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Any further west and wed have some mid level dryslot issues. That run is close but would work. 

Yeah, don't want it to track over PYM. The 700mb low goes over our heads that run but not before crushing us. Definitely would prefer a mid-level low track more similar to the 00z. It's probably too amped and we settle on something between the canal and MVY. I think this is our storm. 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

10mi in this set will mean the difference between no snow and like a foot. ;)

That's almost always the case, *somewhere*.

Anyway my point was with regard to grid spacing. You didn't use the 3km apparently, bc it passed just south of the canal.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Yeah, don't want it to track over PYM. The 700mb low goes over our heads that run but not before crushing us. Definitely would prefer a mid-level low track more similar to the 00z. It's probably too amped and we settle on something between the canal and MVY. I think this is our storm. 

Yea the euro being as far east as it is a good hedge at this point, and a huge confidence booster for us.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This H5 pattern supports the low track near NJ though and then kissing SNE coast. I know it's the NAM, but it's not like I can laugh at that solution like I normally do at the NAM. I can't help but think the euro comes west. Even if the NAM is too amped, it's tough for BOS area to have a snowy scenario unless the euro solution verified. Definitely an interior event.

I agree with the track kissing the NJ coast as it re-develops, but it's where it tracks from there that's fuzzy.  Does it stay tucky-tucky or does it get kicked east some.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

TFlizz needs a restraining jacket. He ruins every thread with his whining unless he gets snow or jacks. Straight up, dood has crushed in so many storms. Suck it up for a change.

Agree. Man that guy is in for some reality when he regresses.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
Just now, moneypitmike said:

I'm considering staying put in GC.  I'll make final call after the GFS/EC come out.  What a trouncing for western Mass on the NAM.

I’d go down east.  GC may win in snow totals or not but pit2 will be more dynamic.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Great pbp while at work. High fiving over to rain in 3 minutes. 

Pretty obvious at H5 as early as 24 hours that this would tuck more and threaten our snow here... we will need trough to get squashed and the system to kick east after it closes like last night's runs, otherwise we are warm and dryslot. 12z Euro will be critical guidance for us.

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

To be fair he could be 20 and of the mind that blizzards grow on trees, and Boston sports teams win titles regularly because that's how it's been his entire life.

its like hitting 10k on the first few spins at the casino and then months and years later you realize just how rare those big hits are

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What West shift? I’ve never seen anything like this for a track set in stone. Mid levels and surface all go SE of CT. Relax 

lol. I was trying to get Steve's attention with my rain talk.

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any man that uses the term nothing burger needs to look at themselves in the mirror and reevaluate 

Yeah. For some reason that term is really cringy and sounds awkward when people use it.  I heard one of my kids use it last year, and that was only to mock someone else.  

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