Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[WintersComing]

850 temps also look a tick cooler as well

[wxsniss]

Pretty sizable changes as early as 24hrs... trough is sharper and digs more...

closes H5 by 33hrs... off sNJ... earlier capture, big hit for NEPA-NYC-western SNE

eastern SNE is gonna need that kick east...

[Buddy1987]

What a snow bomb!! Good lord.

[WintersComing]

Yum

[Buddy1987]

Someone is going to have some serious Elmer glue type snow on the rain/snow line out toward RI/SE MA wherever it sets up. The qpf projection at hr 36 for that area is insane.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Getting dangerously close verbatim lol.

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Getting dangerously close verbatim lol.

It does eventually torch 925 for BOS to PVD. Out to IJD technically but we are dryslotted.

[Sn0waddict]

Don’t like this run, instead of shooting east it drifts NE and dry slots a lot of CT.  Lovely

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Don’t like this run, instead of shooting east it drifts NE and dry slots a lot of CT.  Lovely

Yep

[dendrite]

That is pretty damn amped.

[WintersComing]

Gotta imagine we'll pretty much know for sure when 12z GFS and Euro come out

[Buddy1987]

I don't think the NAM is handling that dual low structure correctly, at least at hr27 is when you notice it the most. It's great to see the snow totals on the NAM, but the GFS/RGEM/EURO blend would be the way to go I believe. 

[Sn0waddict]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yep

Didn’t think it looked to bad at hr 30, bad after that it just kept drifting northward. 

[mostman]

Brings the Low right over Boston. 

[SJonesWX]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So many EC members are snowy in ern areas. I would love for the EC to give the GFS one big massive steaming dump on the face.

2 mets, 1 cup?

[CoastalWx]

We rain.

[DomNH]

Dendrite's turn on the NAM. 

[wxsniss]

The key to this run is the change apparent very early... at 24 hr the trough is sharper and digs more, and as expected there is earlier capture closer to sNJ and a tighter track

Just another NAM chocolate until other 12z guidance comes out, but eastern SNE will really need the kick east / greater blocking with a W-E compressed trough as shown last night... otherwise eastern SNE is warm and dryslots, but bigger hit for western SNE / CNE

 

[Buddy1987]

The 3K NAM is nuts for CT from hr27-30, with convective elements traversing the state. Gonna be wild for someone.

[dendrite]

That northern stream hangs back further west after they sorta phase/split and you get more of a slingshot northward of the storm system.

[WintersComing]

It is eerily similiar to the 06z GFS though 

[dan11295]

IMHO very likely easten guidance goes west at 12Z.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Dendrite's turn on the NAM. 

This is my 36hr NAM QPF jack. All will return to normal after the rest of the 12z suite.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, wxsniss said:

The key to this run is the change apparent very early... at 24 hr the trough is sharper and digs more, and as expected there is earlier capture closer to sNJ and a tighter track

Just another NAM chocolate until other 12z guidance comes out, but eastern SNE will really need the kick east / greater blocking with a W-E compressed trough as shown last night... otherwise eastern SNE is warm and dryslots, but bigger hit for western SNE / CNE

 

This H5 pattern supports the low track near NJ though and then kissing SNE coast. I know it's the NAM, but it's not like I can laugh at that solution like I normally do at the NAM. I can't help but think the euro comes west. Even if the NAM is too amped, it's tough for BOS area to have a snowy scenario unless the euro solution verified. Definitely an interior event.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I don't think the NAM is handling that dual low structure correctly, at least at hr27 is when you notice it the most. It's great to see the snow totals on the NAM, but the GFS/RGEM/EURO blend would be the way to go I believe. 

I agree with this assessment.  Seem like the NAM is suffering some feedback trying to re-center the low further west(tucked) when the best forcing looks a bit east.  

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, mostman said:

Brings the Low right over Boston. 

Canal, not Boston.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s pretty crazy to see most outlets and forecasters taking a steaming dump on the euro. Its the outlier... but I’d be pretty nervous forecasting 1-2” down here when the euro continues to show 12-18”.

Just odd to see the euro completely tossed 

[WxBlue]

Understand it might be too amplified, but I don't like seeing the low track over SE MA. Way too close for comfort IMBY.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

It is eerily similiar to the 06z GFS though 

Having the GFS and NAM together only means they're united in their terribleness.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I agree with this assessment.  Seem like the NAM is suffering some feedback trying to re-center the low further west(tucked) when the best forcing looks a bit east.  

Thanks. Just seems super jumpy with the center of the low when its trying to differentiate as to what to do.