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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It’s a compact system so track will be important. That won’t really be ironed out probably until tomorrow. Euro was east and gfs farthest west. Canadian seemed to be in the middle in terms of accumulations. Gfs wrapped in a lot of warm 925 air to TOL and ORH brierly.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a compact system so track will be important. That won’t really be ironed out probably until tomorrow. Euro was east and gfs farthest west. Canadian seemed to be in the middle in terms of accumulations. Gfs wrapped in a lot of warm 925 air to TOL and ORH brierly.

Compact = qpf worries.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Freak always looking to shaft folks 

EPS is much farther sw

lol what? 

Is this not a weather discussion?  Or is it better to just say every model shows 12"+ for all and leave it at that for the next 3 days?  That sounds like pretty boring analysis if you ask me but to each their own.

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a compact system so track will be important. That won’t really be ironed out probably until tomorrow. Euro was east and gfs farthest west. Canadian seemed to be in the middle in terms of accumulations. Gfs wrapped in a lot of warm 925 air to TOL and ORH brierly.

All we need to see is the massive 1”+ on the ens

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First post on this system...hopefully I do a little better this time :lol:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/battered-southern-new-england-braces.html

 

"Coastal dwellers have barely even been afforded the opportunity to asses." :lol: I almost Jackson Pollocked my computer screen with my morning coffee. Good writeup though, Ray. This one seems to have fewer question marks.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Stop being a Debbie. Only find models with biggest totals.

The EPS is not much further SW at all, its almost identical to the OP. 

I get it, the man just wants to be excited in fantasy land but its the false BS that gets me. 

If I posted a shot of the EPS mean right now it certainly isn't like what he's saying.  If I'm a casual observer reading the thread without access to those products, that's just wrong information.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The EPS is not much further SW at all, its almost identical to the OP. 

I get it, the man just wants to be excited in fantasy land but its the false BS that gets me. 

If I posted a shot of the EPS mean right now it certainly isn't like what he's saying.  If I'm a casual observer reading the thread without access to those products, that's just wrong information.

Well then I’m not sure what to tell you .Euro was terrible on last storm dropping 6-12 + Good luck riding that . Hopefully you get what you guys want up there 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not trying to debbie man, just analyze it but EPS is not like that.  GEFS is though.

Ride the GFS for now.

Per Ray's write-up, begin weighing the ops more heavily than the ensembles at this time frame.  I don't think he's ignoring the ensembles by any stretch, but the op runs are looming larger, and increasingly so with each future run.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, weathafella said:

Well at least we won’t be 60 the day before the event this time.  Man I should have known better!

63 F, March 30, 1997.

I know you know this as well as anyone. We correctly preach that surface temps can be overcome. And we did drop into the 30s by Thursday night. But we were blasting in skunked 850s to our east that in fact warmed us at the surface. Between the Oh Boys, Kevin said it correctly: where will the cold air come from?

That said, we chased and forecasters were nervous because we were damn close, and the ceiling was historically high.

Anyway, this week's setup has much better antecedent temps aloft, even for the warmer GFS. And better track to drain from the north.

Condolences about your aunt. Good longevity genes in your shuffle. I think you'll be returning to snow.

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Johnno

Johnno

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Does anyone have the link for the probability map that Ryan likes to use for chance of >6” of snow (I think that’s right...)

Maybe I’m imagining it

I saw one on twitter after 12z yesterday looked great, didn’t see one after 0z yet

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