Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[#NoPoles]

I've actually enjoyed tracking this storm and the last one. Even though there is no chance of snow for me. I'm not feeling great going into this next storm when we are still reeling from that damage of the last storm. The ocean hasn't had a chance to recede, the ground is already saturated, and trees are weakened, power hasn't been 100% restored. Dunes are damaged and seawall have breached. Add heavy wet snow into the mix and the damage could sky rocket. I'm sure this March will be remembered for a while.

[codfishsnowman]

the euro qpf is ok back here but would expect better for long duration....but i would expect big numbers with such slow movement....fast hitting events over the past decade have dropped 8-15 with durations of half the time or less and there have been many

if this thing is as moisture laden with good snow growth and slow movement blah blah it should be 12 to 20 regionwide aside from mid level magic and the track as proposed can really not be much better

with all the crushing adjectives being used you would think 18-30 plus was on its way....geez

 

[TalcottWx]

12 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I've actually enjoyed tracking this storm and the last one. Even though there is no chance of snow for me. I'm not feeling great going into this next storm when we are still reeling from that damage of the last storm. The ocean hasn't had a chance to recede, the ground is already saturated, and trees are weakened, power hasn't been 100% restored. Dunes are damaged and seawall have breached. Add heavy wet snow into the mix and the damage could sky rocket. I'm sure this March will be remembered for a while.

I'd guess 3-6" for you. Just to be conservative 

[ice1972]

Man imagine the epicness had Fridays system been cold enough......nice March FTW.....can’t remember the last time March has worked out here in West Hartford.....seems the season is cooked by now down here in Death Valley 

[ice1972]

CT ski resorts could end the year with a bang if Morch pans out......#GoMorch!!

[ice1972]

Darren at NBC CT in HFD indicating the 8-14in NW CT may be low......we pray

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

And the system can’t negotiate the block so some Fuji action.   Euro hints at this for some mood snow lingering through Friday.

Days and days and days 

[ORH_wxman]

Great euro run. Right now I'd prob go 10-16" with lollis to 20" for interior SNE just about everywhere and maybe get that to the coast for BOS northward. Though perhaps lower amounts slightly there if ratios will be worse with warmer sfc. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

the euro qpf is ok back here but would expect better for long duration....but i would expect big numbers with such slow movement....fast hitting events over the past decade have dropped 8-15 with durations of half the time or less and there have been many

if this thing is as moisture laden with good snow growth and slow movement blah blah it should be 12 to 20 regionwide aside from mid level magic and the track as proposed can really not be much better

with all the crushing adjectives being used you would think 18-30 plus was on its way....geez

 

It would be a lot of 20"+ if the airmass was a little colder. Crushing is a subjective term but over a foot of high water content paste is definitely a crushing to me. That doesn't happen very often. 

[CoastalWx]

6z stuff is pretty tucked in. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z stuff is pretty tucked in. 

E MA peeps would be in trouble if 06z GFS verified. That's pretty rainy look. Prob overamped though given the euro run that just happened well SE of that. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

E MA peeps would be in trouble if 06z GFS verified. That's pretty rainy look. Prob overamped though given the euro run that just happened well SE of that. 

  It’s definitely a concern I have. Despite the Euro track, I feel like this pattern support something kind of amped. Personally, I am not really feeling this one. However, I will wait until 12 Z to figure that one out. 

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

E MA peeps would be in trouble if 06z GFS verified. That's pretty rainy look. Prob overamped though given the euro run that just happened well SE of that. 

+2C max wet bulb (lowest 2 km) all the way west to BAF. Tickles ORH with +4C. 

[NorEastermass128]

FWIW, BOX not loving the coast or SEMA either. Thinking a boat load of rain here to perhaps 1-4”. Leaning conservative. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX GW here

 

[OceanStWx]

EPS ticked up again, tugging the highest percentages of 18+ a little SW into NH. And dragged the mean 12" line down into the ORH Hills. 

[Damage In Tolland]

You pretty much have to go 12-20” from CT River east  and north . 

[Damage In Tolland]

53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would be a lot of 20"+ if the airmass was a little colder. Crushing is a subjective term but over a foot of high water content paste is definitely a crushing to me. That doesn't happen very often. 

So we all paste?

[tavwtby]

ALY keeps pushing it up...max amount 20", probability of 17".

 

[NeonPeon]

That little bit of hope for those well se of 95 is gone.  In all honesty, while everyone obsesses over the details, and the gradient is so unforgiving that there will be some odd places busting high and low, there has been remarkable model agreement on the basics of this thing for a while, and, with the exception of the GFS, consensus on the rain snow line.  It never wants to snow here in march, I tried to not get sucked in too much, the nam last night almost got me.  Happy I'm heading up to Portland on Friday, winter won't come to me in march, but I can go to it.

[CT Valley Snowman]

GEFS are really amped  Outlier right now and probably wrong but still not what you want to see the day before the storm when everyone is chucking around 12+.  Blend the guidance and you have a very nice hit for many peeps in the interior.  

[moneypitmike]

Any thoughts on the wind for this along the coastal areas?   Hardly any references to that aspect of things.

I think I'll make my 'where to be' call after the 12z run.  I think the Berks may win out with snowfall, but if the Pit2 area can still cash in with major snow AND wind, I'll make the trek up there.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

GEFS are really amped  Outlier right now and probably wrong but still not what you want to see the day before the storm when everyone is chucking around 12+.  Blend the guidance and you have a very nice hit for many peeps in the interior.  

Looks like an Orange County/Catskill special.

25.4*

[moneypitmike]

Sweet p/c for the Pit:

Tonight

A chance of snow, mainly after 2am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 26. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Wednesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

 

Wednesday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 27. Northeast wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would be a lot of 20"+ if the airmass was a little colder. Crushing is a subjective term but over a foot of high water content paste is definitely a crushing to me. That doesn't happen very often. 

so to some degree it is an airmass issue...i knew it....still euro qpf is light back here all other factors considered for 00z

[codfishsnowman]

ugh at 6z....pretty big changes from midnight runs for a lot of folks

[JC-CT]

11 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

GEFS are really amped  Outlier right now and probably wrong but still not what you want to see the day before the storm when everyone is chucking around 12+.  Blend the guidance and you have a very nice hit for many peeps in the interior.  

Yikes

[JC-CT]

Next frame tracks right over BOS

[Damage In Tolland]

Why would anyone be using the GEFS less than 24 hours out?

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why would anyone be using the GEFS less than 24 hours out?

Posting and using are different things.  It's still information.  That's why people post NAM outputs.

 

Also, this is not a slam dunk for a lot of folks, so minor movements can have major impacts.  Again, information is information. It's all in how it's weighed.