HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 3:57 AM, ORH_wxman said: Matches other guidance better now....has a 2.2 inch max over a swath of interior E MA near Ray and a secondary jack out west. Expand The maps are funny because GFS and often most models fail to accurately read the topography in W MA and have massive "shadowing" qpf reductions that are overdone. It's sometimes true with E/NE winds creating down slopping but usually overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:02 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why are people saying its a toaster for E MA? Jesus..its 20" instead of 30"? Expand They are looking at the sfc temps. Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 3:54 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are the last person I'd accuse of a jp fetish. Expand He will love the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:03 AM, ORH_wxman said: They are looking at the sfc temps. Tossed. Expand I wonder how much those faux BL temps affect other variables over time like PWATs, QPF, theta-e etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 3:59 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Every model crushes you. What exactly do you not believe? Expand Always on guard for the E shifts or valley down slopping effects. I agree though, this looks pretty awesome out here with the mid-levels and lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:02 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why are people saying its a toaster for E MA? Jesus..its 20" instead of 30"? Expand Surface maps ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 3:59 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Every model crushes you. What exactly do you not believe? Expand you are the last person that should accuse somebody of leaning Debbie Downer. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:03 AM, ORH_wxman said: They are looking at the sfc temps. Tossed. Expand GFS sounding has me at 39/35 @06Z, do I think that will happen under 35dbz returns not really, but I'd be concerned inside 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:05 AM, dendrite said: I wonder how much those faux BL temps affect other variables over time like PWATs, QPF, theta-e etc.... Expand Exactly it's a POS I'd rate it behind the NAM and ICON this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:05 AM, dendrite said: I wonder how much those faux BL temps affect other variables over time like PWATs, QPF, theta-e etc.... Expand You'd think it would be a feedback loop in the wrong direction for any ageostrophic CAD effects....if it's keeping it warm at the sfc, it's going to mix down the winds aloft better putting them more geostrophic, thus, allowing even more warming from the east....and that would def have to affect some other varaibles too as you hypothesize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 All things looking pretty good right now. Hopefully wake up to see the Euro with a full capture and stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:02 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is essex county not rain to LWM for first half of gfs storm, not talking thermals, just BL wind direction , less than ideal high orientation Expand You chasing in the Berkshires or crashing at Dryslot's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:11 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: You chasing in the berkshires crashing at Dryslot's? Expand 3k nam looks like hunter mtn redux But im not quite cool w being charged 200$ Weekend rate when there was no power fri am to checkout sat. Im staying put unless this goes up and in w early phase Next Monday/Tuesday thou i would go Back to Hunter mtn if they See 18"or more Wed and look to be crushed again. The depths and gradient would be epic. The first 2' fell at 32F, that wasnt close to fluffy where i was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 GFS hr 48-57 has 925 above 0C in BOS, and the line makes it from west of ORH to NE MA, before receding. If you believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The dry slot keeps going over my fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I still expect the QPF to tickle up further tomorrow. Lotta juicy high theta-e air getting tapped. I know Wiz mentioned the omega and high lapse rates, so probably some decent CAPE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:16 AM, #NoPoles said: The dry slot keeps going over my fanny Expand Then tell him to stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wheelhouse =Euro lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:14 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: 3k nam looks like hunter mtn redux But im not quite cool w being charged 200$ Weekend rate when there was no power fri am to checkout sat. Im staying put unless this goes up and in w early phase Expand Yeah, I can probably find you some friends out on the E Slope that have generators and are much better company than a lightless motel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:16 AM, JC-CT said: Then tell him to stop Expand He’s going for the jp again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:16 AM, #NoPoles said: The dry slot keeps going over my fanny Expand I’d rather dry slot at this point. Ground is saturated around here. We don’t need any more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 cmc joins the party. It likes to flop around for days until it figures things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:18 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d rather dry slot at this point. Ground is saturated around here. We don’t need any more rain. Expand In west Taunton there is potential to see a nice gradient across TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:17 AM, Ginx snewx said: Wheelhouse =Euro lock it Expand Just inside BM w/ slight stall near LI is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:20 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: cmc joins the party. It likes to flip around for days until it figures things out. Expand The NYC NJ crew at 48 ceast to exist wow wow wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:20 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: cmc joins the party. It likes to flop around for days until it figures things out. Expand It oddly gets some things right occasionally, a week out and then goes on a bender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That time your feeder bands originate in the SW Gulf of Mexico ... P-What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I may not be able to look at guidance tomorrow. There’s no way to go from here, but down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:31 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I may not be able to look at guidance tomorrow. There’s no way to go from here, but down. Expand It's like scoring the winning touchdown too early, knowing that you just gave Tom Brady over a minute left to do his thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 4:34 AM, Spanks45 said: It's like scoring the winning touchdown too early, knowing that you just gave Tom Brady over a minute left to do his thing.... Expand Then you knock the ball out of his hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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