Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[OceanStWx]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably be gravity waves with that kind of fast sudden core of UVM. Might even have to consider fold event although that would probably be in the southside of the low if there's a sting jet

Not the strongest signal I've ever seen, but some modeling last night was indicating one just east of the Cape as the storm occludes.

[Typhoon Tip]

Got to get that small minimum in Connecticut bumped just 10 miles west

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is almost dead nuts with 18z so far....mabe the slightest bit slower?

[Buddy1987]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is almost dead nuts with 18z so far....mabe the slightest bit slower?

Agreed. Nothing I can find too much different. Just amazed at qpf output from all the models.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Also in addition to what Will said, we actually want the high RH with respect to ice. 

So 80-90% with respect to water, and 100+% with respect to ice is ideal. That way super-cooled water preferentially deposits on ice nuclei and it's a better set up for less dense (dendritic) snow.

ahhh so is that what that option is on bufkit to overlay RH (ice)? This explains everything...and we do have values exceeding 100% within the SGZ which is exactly what we want!!!

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

ahhh so is that what that option is on bufkit to overlay RH (ice)? This explains everything...and we do have values exceeding 100% within the SGZ which is exactly what we want!!!

Right. That's why it's there.

I mean the overlap of omega and the DGZ is a really strong signal at this point for a warning event. Nearly all warning events have the max omega at or just below the DGZ, while events that don't show that rarely hit warning.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Not the strongest signal I've ever seen, but some modeling last night was indicating one just east of the Cape as the storm occludes.

 Yeah I wasn't sure I just was seeing that negative tilt with that VMax moving north and I start wondering. Not sure that phenomenon is very well modeled

[LSC97wxnut]

NAM and GFS almost in perfect agreement at 54...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Still a bit outside of RGEM range but that is 1' for almost everybody in SNE with the usual favored ORH to Merrimack areas going 18".   I can certainly envision some weenie, teeth grinding shifts of JP axis over the next 24 hours but some WNE locales should see a secondary JP.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

 Yeah I wasn't sure I just was seeing that negative tilt with that VMax moving north and I start wondering. Not sure that phenomenon is very well modeled

Almost certainly not well modeled. But I noticed a few runs of the GFS there was cutting off the warm air (seclusion) and when I overlaid the 925 winds there was a backside 60 knot jet that formed before the retrograde.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Right. That's why it's there.

I mean the overlap of omega and the DGZ is a really strong signal at this point for a warning event. Nearly all warning events have the max omega at or just below the DGZ, while events that don't show that rarely hit warning.

I remember coming across that in a powerpoint I read the other day which was actually done by Wes Junker! I can't believe I never thought to do RH w/ice. That all makes so much sense now. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFS for many 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS finally dropped the obscene QPF blob in E MA....that 3.5 inch monstrosity in earlier runs. Looks more realistic now.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I remember coming across that in a powerpoint I read the other day which was actually done by Wes Junker! I can't believe I never thought to do RH w/ice. That all makes so much sense now. 

Alternatively, you could just do it by proxy and make sure RH with respect to water is 80-90%.

[dendrite]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's interesting...yeah I wonder why it would do that. That's a great observation. I do find it a bit hard pressed to see that much dry air within the zone looking at 700mb RH values...there does seem to be some sort of odd dry slot at 500mb which quickly saturates. But there is a decent surge of drier which tries to work in at 700mb which doesn't quite work into CT but perhaps the nose of that could enhance convective elements? 

Post that with respect to ice.

 

edit...oops late to the party.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

GFS for many 

But good for the few in WNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I don't like one run and now its a jackpot thing?

You are the last person I'd accuse of a jp fetish.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS finally dLAMped the obscene QPF  in E MA... .that 3.5 inch monst rosity in earlier runs. Looks more realistic now.

Great

Will with the orientation of the high to the NE and position of the Low on gfs late wednesday would areas like LWM Not have BL issues

[SnowHole413]

Finally western areas getting the love they deserve 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Alternatively, you could just do it by proxy and make sure RH with respect to water is 80-90%.

Would make things easier to read. 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Post that with respect to ice.

 

edit...oops late to the party.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

GFS for many 

It’s a toaster for much of Eastern ma. How much do we believe it is the question.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Great

Matches other guidance better now....has a 2.2 inch max over a swath of interior E MA near Ray and a secondary jack out west.

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Another great run, outside of se ma in sne. Thermals are crap. orh aint raining. 

[ajisai]

harv on in 10 min

 

gfs and nam give roughly same qpf (nam a bit more) but it looks like that rain/snow line has retreated west a bit. still looks like a ne ma jack if the temps go lower for the gfs in the coming runs.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

Finally western areas getting the love they deserve 

I'm not necessarily buying the GFS but that would be +SN for several hours out here.  Dumping.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm not necessarily buying the GFS but that would be +SN for several hours out here.  Dumping.

Every model crushes you. What exactly do you not believe?

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Matches other guidance better now....has a 2.2 inch max over a swath of interior E MA near Ray and a secondary jack out west.

 

 

We take all of that. Sick mid level evolution for us here in Death Valley.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Why are people saying its a toaster for E MA? Jesus..its 20" instead of 30"?

[weatherwiz]

Might be going 12-18'' with my update tomorrow!!! 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Is essex county not  rain to LWM for first half of gfs storm, not talking thermals, just BL wind direction , less than ideal high orientation