Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Go Kart Mozart]

26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Stopping to relieve myself on the Merritt en route to NJ.  NAM may be the NAM but holy crap!  Glad I’ll be home by dinner tomorrow!

I need to relieve myself too.

[Greg]

Those poor people from Plum Island all the way to Plymouth just can't get a damn break.  This stuff is brutal for those coastal dwellers.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This is absurd. Never seen that before

 

That type of omega would prob produce thundersnow. Hopefully its still showing it when we're really close to the event.

[WintersComing]

New NAM jacks just about everyone. No one really should complain about that one.


.

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM is also beginning to elongate the upper low to the south of LI at 48 hours in very similar fashion to the NAM...we'll have to wait until the UQAM/meteocentre maps come out though to see beyond 48.

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Winds piling up water again on the coast. How are tides looking?

Aunt and uncle in Hull are reporting things in bad shape wrt dunes, etc

Yea this ain't good

[Greg]

April Fools Day '97 sort of thunder snow.

[tavwtby]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That type of omega would prob produce thundersnow. Hopefully its still showing it when we're really close to the event.

I was just going to ask that...CAPE value?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That type of omega would prob produce thundersnow. Hopefully its still showing it when we're really close to the event.

I was going to ask about thundersnow with this. I have a horrid fetish for thundersnow and I feel like I get too trigger happy with forecasting it. But given the really steep 3-6km lapse rates and this omega I would think it would at least be possible. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

If I’m reading the maps correctly, 925 is the warmest level and 0c reaches up to about Taunton and then hugs the east facing coast. 

Would heavy rates overcome that? I’d imagine that would verify snowier maybe 10-15 miles off the canal?

[Thunderblizzard]

00z ICON is uber amped similar to 12z NAM... for whatever it's worth.

[tavwtby]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I was going to ask about thundersnow with this. I have a horrid fetish for thundersnow and I feel like I get too trigger happy with forecasting it. But given the really steep 3-6km lapse rates and this omega I would think it would at least be possible. 

We'll have to get Cantore here...it will then...

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I was going to ask about thundersnow with this. I have a horrid fetish for thundersnow and I feel like I get too trigger happy with forecasting it. But given the really steep 3-6km lapse rates and this omega I would think it would at least be possible. 

Yeah i looked at DXR skew T and theres def a MAUL sig above about 650mb for a time, and that obscene omega gets up in that layer, so that is what you typically want to see for thundersnow. We'll obviously want to keep seeing that as we get closer to forecast the TSSN+

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

This is where I expect the most snow, some areas will see 30"+ from this storm in the red area, I think areas southeast of there in New England could see up to 6"+ if not more immediately southeast of the red area, the red area could see widespread 2'+ QPF amounts to such

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah i looked at DXR skew T and theres def a MAUL sig above about 650mb for a time, and that obscene omega gets up in that layer, so that is what you typically want to see for thundersnow. We'll obviously want to keep seeing that as we get closer to forecast the TSSN+

This signal has been pretty consistent over the past several runs and not just the NAM either. I hope though this isn't a concern. This is the regular NAM for Waterbury but with RH overlaid. I only have 90% and greater RH overlayed and you can see this is basically below the SGZ. Is this bad at all? Would this result in less-efficient snowgrowth but we could still tack on some high-end totals?

 

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

00z ICON is uber amped similar to 12z NAM... for whatever it's worth.

Yea it is! Practically scrapes along LI and then ends up just off the outer elbow of the Cape. Crazy snow growth over CT again.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

We'll have to get Cantore here...it will then...

We will get him here.   ORH?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This signal has been pretty consistent over the past several runs and not just the NAM either. I hope though this isn't a concern. This is the regular NAM for Waterbury but with RH overlaid. I only have 90% and greater RH overlayed and you can see this is basically below the SGZ. Is this bad at all? Would this result in less-efficient snowgrowth but we could still tack on some high-end totals?

 

Yeah you want the RH into the max lift...but the NAM sometimes is too dry above about 600-700 i have noticed in a lot of our nor easters. It shows like 75-80% RH instead of 90+. Not sure why it does that higher up, maybe someone knows more about it than I do. But even on that plot you can see how close it is, it's getting into the bottom of the max lift.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

3KM NAM brings 10m gusts to 70-80mph on the Eastern MA Coastline, don't forget how bad the previous storm was here on Cape Cod and Nantucket, we had winds gusting over 90mph, and Chatham looks like a bomb went off in certain areas, awful damage

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to belittle that approach… But just synoptic recognition alone, thunder snow was a part of this going back a couple of days to be frank. Negative tilted systems going to have strong -EPV and at the same time you're going to have closing surfaces at mid-levels only enhancing instability as it goes from slant to temporarily upright ...  could even be where that 90 max is. . We're probably just seeing this omega coming to the range on the nam. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

This is where I expect the most snow, some areas will see 30"+ from this storm in the red area, I think areas southeast of there in New England could see up to 6"+ if not more immediately southeast of the red area, the red area could see widespread 2'+ QPF amounts to such

You are like the NAM, love your enthusiasm but need to take 1/3 off the totals.  Needs to be a prolonged stall with crazy banding for any location outside of isolated hilltops to go over 24".

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you want the RH into the max lift...but the NAM sometimes is too dry above about 600-700 i have noticed in a lot of our nor easters. It shows like 75-80% RH instead of 90+. Not sure why it does that higher up, maybe someone knows more about it than I do. But even on that plot you can see how close it is, it's getting into the bottom of the max lift.

That's interesting...yeah I wonder why it would do that. That's a great observation. I do find it a bit hard pressed to see that much dry air within the zone looking at 700mb RH values...there does seem to be some sort of odd dry slot at 500mb which quickly saturates. But there is a decent surge of drier which tries to work in at 700mb which doesn't quite work into CT but perhaps the nose of that could enhance convective elements? 

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM actually slows the thing SW of the NAM and jackpots NYC....it then resumes gaining latitude and gives SNE a major event, but not the HECS the NAM does.

[Typhoon Tip]

Probably be gravity waves with that kind of fast sudden core of UVM. Might even have to consider fold event although that would probably be in the southside of the low if there's a sting jet

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Seems like Orh Monads and Berks locked in at a foot plus in most all scenarios.

 

Ne mass just doesn't want that storm up AND way in NNJ w that ese BL flow screwing essex county

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably be gravity waves with that kind of fast sudden core of UVM. Might even have to consider fold event although that would probably be in the southside of the low if there's a sting jet

Not what we on the coastline like hearing Tip, no more wind damaging events, I lost power too long already, we had power out all weekend long and just got power back at 230am this morning, I am going to go stir crazy if we lose it again.  Anyways the 00z 3km NAM brings a core of 70-80mph wind gusts to the Cape and Islands sometime Wednesday evening into the overnight and Thursday morning

[ORH_wxman]

00z RGEM clown map

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea it is! Practically scrapes along LI and then ends up just off the outer elbow of the Cape. Crazy snow growth over CT again.

Tossed.

[OceanStWx]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This signal has been pretty consistent over the past several runs and not just the NAM either. I hope though this isn't a concern. This is the regular NAM for Waterbury but with RH overlaid. I only have 90% and greater RH overlayed and you can see this is basically below the SGZ. Is this bad at all? Would this result in less-efficient snowgrowth but we could still tack on some high-end totals?

Also in addition to what Will said, we actually want the high RH with respect to ice. 

So 80-90% with respect to water, and 100+% with respect to ice is ideal. That way super-cooled water preferentially deposits on ice nuclei and it's a better set up for less dense (dendritic) snow.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM actually slows the thing SW of the NAM and jackpots NYC....it then resumes gaining latitude and gives SNE a major event, but not the HECS the NAM does.

Manhattan mauler?  RGEM gets hours of light snow into W MA pretty early.