Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've added plenty of meant on the link provided...feel free to delve in.

I read it, it’s solid as usual. but the I told ya so on every tick east now is rubbing poop in my face lol. 

[Buddy1987]

I feel like surface LP placement is pretty negligible when comparing 0z to 18z, just less moisture thus far through 39.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I read it, it’s solid as usual. but the I told ya so on every tick east now is rubbing poop in my face lol. 

Well, you were pretty early phase obsessed yourself,  but I'll give it a rest. I know how frustrating it is.

[ORH_wxman]

Hard to see how it won't be east this run through 36....and I don't mean fringing western folks either when I say that. It's just relative to the 18z run. I mean, the 18z run had a big weenie band in the Hudson Valley.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I read it, it’s solid as usual. but the I told ya so on every tick east now is rubbing poop in my face lol. 

SWC just lost a loyal subscriber

It’s not terrible looking at 36 hrs...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Low looks a little SE off the coast from 18z

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I feel like surface LP placement is pretty negligible when comparing 0z to 18z, just less moisture thus far through 39.

Haven't even looked at that level yet.  Strictly focused on 500mb.

[dryslot]

Its close to 3mb weaker then 18z at hr 39

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hard to see how it won't be east this run through 36....and I don't mean fringing western folks either when I say that. It's just relative to the 18z run. I mean, the 18z run had a big weenie band in the Hudson Valley.

18z was zonked as usual. This should still be serviceable 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, you were pretty early phase obsessed yourself,  but I'll give it a rest. I know how frustrating it is.

But I never ripped and read claiming the nam would win. Ialways mentioned compromise. Still think euro gets closer ie west tonight. UK track/evolution is what I envision.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hard to see how it won't be east this run through 36....and I don't mean fringing western folks either when I say that. It's just relative to the 18z run. I mean, the 18z run had a big weenie band in the Hudson Valley.

Yea, tough for me to see how most of sne doesn't get waxed...don't mean to give the wrong idea. Mid level front will def be west of my area.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

18z was zonked as usual. This should still be serviceable 

This will still prob be zonked...just not quite as much as 18z. It might not give Albany as much. I doubt anyone in here will be disappointed in the outcome outside of far SE areas.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Haven't even looked at that level yet.  Strictly focused on 500mb.

I usually switch over to 850 and surface after a certain time when I see what trough axis and the main players are going to basically do.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I don’t think this is like the usual ticks east. It’s not really going to take people out of the game... but it will mean a lot for areas that are on the edge of taint.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But I never ripped and read claiming the nam would win. Ialways mentioned compromise. Still think euro gets closer ie west tonight. UK track/evolution is what I envision.

No...you were fine. I get what you were saying. 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This will still prob be zonked...just not quite as much as 18z. It might not give Albany as much. I doubt anyone in here will be disappointed in the outcome outside of far SE areas.

Def right. 42 about to deliver some serious goods again. QPF ramping up

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No...you were fine. I get what you were saying. 

it’s all good. I’ve enjoyed the mini competition. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This run might be better for western areas if you take of the QPF goggles...Mid level fronto was in NYS at 18z.

[Buddy1987]

45 just a tad wonky with two precip maximas. One over eastern PA and Northern NJ and one out over the Atlantic. Kind of a goal post setup just referencing this particular hour.

[dryslot]

This runs going to end up further north before we close off H5

[Buddy1987]

48 death band commences over entire SNE viewing area. Man impressive once again.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea, it’s just a smudge slower with the southern stream. Considering its the nam, surprised it hasnt waffled back and forth past two days. It’s kinda ticking right towards a consensus. I like the look.

[ORH_wxman]

The queens in CT rejoice at 48 hours...that's some impressive qpf for a 3 hour total.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

48 death band commences over entire SNE viewing area. Man impressive once again.

You know one of the analogs is 4/96 absolute wall of heavy snow. NAM has it  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This runs going to end up further north before we close off H5

Yup...watch for that to continue...like clock work, right til go time.

[ajisai]

what a bomb over CT, all over

[tavwtby]

Man the difference between guidance waffling last storm...and the consistency with this one... snowing Wed by daybreak??

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You know one of the analogs is 4/96 absolute wall of heavy snow. NAM has it  

Funny, I was just telling my father and aunt this today about that analog.

[TheSnowman]

1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

Careful, somewhat might threaten to stick an oak tree up your fanny

 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I have a big oak in the front that I am cutting down in the spring. It overhangs the house a bit so there is a threat to my roof/house of being damaged any given sunday. Do you think I should leave it up? 

You do WHATEVER it takes to save it, to freshen it, to treat it.  You don't cut it.  Nothing Uglier than houses which have no trees right around them.  

 

Yes.  To me the trees are worth more than family.  We came to curve them down and build crap.  They didn't want us there.  And they do a Ton if good.  Ever notice how EVERY time  someone orders "Wow what an incredible neighborhood this is" It's because there are a million trees around, and whenever someone says " Mmm what a crappy neighborhood" it's because there are few trees.  

 

Oak's are incredible.  You're gonna cut it for the fear of it having a 10000th of % chance of it killing someone and oh dear money lost on some shingles.  The house is Worth far more with the trees.  Take your chances or Sell it and go live in a trashy city with no trees.  

[ORH_wxman]

Cold in BOS...thats paste during the destruction tomorrow evening.