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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Every forecast I've seen right now all over New England seems low.

But it is also better to probably slowly ramp up (plenty of time left to increase) rather than go out with 14-24", get the public into a frenzy and then have to back-peddle.  Still plenty of news cycles to gradually increase the amounts.

Nobody wants to pull a Schwoegler, which I'd loosely define as calling for 20"+ and getting 0"

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ScituateWX

ScituateWX

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was thinking about you today. I saw a tweet from Harvey saying the Coastal Flooding wouldn't be as bad Wed. I got to thinking. The barriers and protected sand bars are eroded, the tides are still 2 feet higher than normal, although normal predicted tides are a foot lower, to me  its possible that this next storm is a real disaster.

Yeah we shall see.  The erosion in the weekend storm was severe from what I can see.  The flooding is one thing it comes in and goes out for the most part but like you said barriers and such have taken a beating!  I posted this photo from yesterday in the other thread. Egypt beach has taken a serious hit. Anyway looking forward to tonight’s 00Z runs.

 

 

31A4E425-5E18-477E-8527-3FC86292D230.jpeg

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CTWeatherFreak

CTWeatherFreak

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Seems like that's more an issue of just being bad with BL temps than anything else. 

Loved your 5pm broadcast, geeking out on the ensembles  for the general public. I know  the other stations dont do that.  However.. gotta take issue with next week's... Youre gonna try and 'wish it away'?  LOL. I realize thats just for public consumption, but it cracked me up.  To myself, Im like "BS BS  BS".. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
Just now, CTWeatherFreak said:

Loved your 5pm broadcast, geeking out on the ensembles  for the general public. I know  the other stations dont do that.  However.. gotta take issue with next week's... Youre gonna try and 'wish it away'?  LOL. I realize thats just for public consumption, but it cracked me up.  To myself, Im like "BS BS  BS".. 

lol yeah. Well to be honest I'm going to be away all weekend and would rather not come back to a snowstorm. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Here is a question I have and it's something that sort of popped into my head with the last few storms. I've kinda noticed in the past that it seems like the heaviest of the snows (within a band) seem to occur when you have excellent 700mb frontogenesis coincident with 700mb vertical velocity...anyways...looking at the NAM we see some excellent 700mb VV's...like super sick VV's, however, the degree of frontogenesis doesn't appear to be all that excellent. What should be taken of that and does that mean anything? 

 

5a9dd028ea896_18zmar5nam700frontoandvv.thumb.jpg.663bbee97435e4eb28b34aefd8a7343f.jpg

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

Here’s what’s funny...   you have Ryan(great forecast discussion BTW A FEW MINUTES AGO) who says this won’t have much wind and could possibly stahl out.

 

And then I put on the weather channel and Tom Nizol the winter weather expert MET says strong winds across the area, and says the storm is moving along pretty quick.  

 

Always funny how each MET has their own take on things.  How does it actually play out...??? Interesting.

 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Here’s what’s funny...   you have Ryan(great forecast discussion BTW A FEW MINUTES AGO) who says this won’t have much wind and could possibly stahl out.

 

And then I put on the weather channel and Tom Nizol the winter weather expert MET says strong winds across the area, and says the storm is moving along pretty quick.  

 

Always funny how each MET has their own take on things.  How does it actually play out...??? Interesting.

 

 

 I'm not sure anybody sees this moving along quickly unless he is forecasting for Philly? 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Here’s what’s funny...   you have Ryan(great forecast discussion BTW A FEW MINUTES AGO) who says this won’t have much wind and could possibly stahl out.

 

And then I put on the weather channel and Tom Nizol the winter weather expert MET says strong winds across the area, and says the storm is moving along pretty quick.  

 

Always funny how each MET has their own take on things.  How does it actually play out...??? Interesting.

 

One is focused on the major east coast metro areas and the other is focused on ct?

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Here’s what’s funny...   you have Ryan(great forecast discussion BTW A FEW MINUTES AGO) who says this won’t have much wind and could possibly stahl out.

 

And then I put on the weather channel and Tom Nizol the winter weather expert MET says strong winds across the area, and says the storm is moving along pretty quick.  

 

Always funny how each MET has their own take on things.  How does it actually play out...??? Interesting.

 

Harvey was expecting “normal” Nor’easter winds...not as bad as Friday, but still siggy

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

 I will wait until 12z  tomorrow to let my cautious optimism turn to genuine excitement.  Forget jackpots, I would be ecstatic with 12 since my biggest snow YTD is 7.5".   I'll be sold on us getting a foot out here when I am measuring it with the ruler, always cautious about correction East. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Here is a question I have and it's something that sort of popped into my head with the last few storms. I've kinda noticed in the past that it seems like the heaviest of the snows (within a band) seem to occur when you have excellent 700mb frontogenesis coincident with 700mb vertical velocity...anyways...looking at the NAM we see some excellent 700mb VV's...like super sick VV's, however, the degree of frontogenesis doesn't appear to be all that excellent. What should be taken of that and does that mean anything? 

 

5a9dd028ea896_18zmar5nam700frontoandvv.thumb.jpg.663bbee97435e4eb28b34aefd8a7343f.jpg

They go hand in hand. If you’re increasing the temperature gradient due to convergence you’re essentially strengthening a front. What happens at a front? Lift. If you have crazy frontogenesis , like in those deformation bands, those parcels converging have to go somewhere. They tend to go up and get stretched out. Look up axis of dilatation.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Here’s what’s funny...   you have Ryan(great forecast discussion BTW A FEW MINUTES AGO) who says this won’t have much wind and could possibly stahl out.

 

And then I put on the weather channel and Tom Nizol the winter weather expert MET says strong winds across the area, and says the storm is moving along pretty quick.  

 

Always funny how each MET has their own take on things.  How does it actually play out...??? Interesting.

 

I know where I’d place my bet on. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They go hand in hand. If you’re increasing the temperature gradient due to convergence you’re essentially strengthening a front. What happens at a front? Lift. If you have crazy frontogenesis , like in those deformation bands, those parcels converging have to go somewhere. They tend to go up and get stretched out. Look up axis of dilatation.

Thank you...this helps quite a bit. I was also reading something about the axis of dilatation and that helped me to visualize this better. While the degree of VV seems much more impressive you can actually see the striking similarity within the shapes. I wish we actually did more stuff like this in school . 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thank you...this helps quite a bit. I was also reading something about the axis of dilatation and that helped me to visualize this better. While the degree of VV seems much more impressive you can actually see the striking similarity within the shapes. I wish we actually did more stuff like this in school . 

They don’t? what the hell kinda met major is it...?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Interesting how the Euro run actually sends this L/W trough two distinct amplitude intervals ...each resulting in their own coastal storm. This first is ours...the 2nd in NS/NF's...  The latter one is actually the vestige of that N/stream that fails to completely phase into the former, and it swings around the bottom of the trough and detonates a new system later on.  Interesting pirouette/oscillatory total amplitude. 

It sort of hearkens to that old philosophy about the L/W storm events, where each wave in the L/W is actually just components of the same total storm ...with lulls in between.  Fascinating.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They don’t? what the hell kinda met major is it...?

Nope :lol:

We don't even go over like snowgrowth physics and such...we go over like cloud condensation nuclei and how rain drops are formed and why droplet size is typically greater over continental than ocean and such but not in heavy detail. Nothing is really gone over in great depth so if you're like coming into this program and don't have a big weather background you probably aren't learning a tremendous amount. But you'll know how to read and interpret MOS/FOUS/etc 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Met degree is 85% calculus and physics, 15% practical application. 

It depends where one enrolls ...  At UML, it's advanced post-graduate preparatory focused... Up at Lyndon State .. you can get degrees in Met of different flavors - some are focused almost entirely in media, and the scientific requirements are comparatively soft. ..ranging to advanced stuff, sure.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thank you...this helps quite a bit. I was also reading something about the axis of dilatation and that helped me to visualize this better. While the degree of VV seems much more impressive you can actually see the striking similarity within the shapes. I wish we actually did more stuff like this in school . 

 

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They don’t? what the hell kinda met major is it...?

We did learn this stuff at UNC Asheville my senior year, but we also spent more time calculating frontogenesis, temperature gradient, convergence, etc than applying them together. Met schools taught us to be atmospheric scientists, not weather forecasters... at least that's what my school did.

8 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Met degree is 85% calculus and physics, 15% practical application. 

Yep.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It depends where one enrolls ...  At UML, it's advanced post-graduate preparatory focused... Up at Lyndon State .. you can get degrees in Met of different flavors - some are focused almost entirely in media, and the scientific requirements are comparatively soft. ..ranging to advanced stuff, sure.

I know the UML one was pretty brutal when I was there mid 80s-early 90s...I never even sniffed that major,  the students I knew then who took it were challenged at least as much as the engineering majors I knew. The math alone kept me away

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