Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

GFS is a torch in the low levels in eastern New England, lol. 

Snow maps aren't going to like that.  What another nail-bitter to some degree.

QPF isn't an issue for sure.

More of that sh*t huh

[toller65]

AWT?

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[weatherwiz]

I really like where I sit here in Danbury. Pretty good indication that even if we don't sit in the heaviest banding for the majority that we do get into it and then it pivots through before slowly beginning to weaken. If this thing can sit somewhere long enough I could see a 12-18'' jackpot zone. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Huge run, colder too. Wouldnt say it caved to euro just yet...if you look at pretty surface maps, yea its east which is a good thing though. But the h5 is drool worthy how it is trending with quicker stream involvement and a stall.

Snows thru Fri weeeee.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Right? I'm always wary of being too aggressive writing off lower level warmth as model bias.

Especially after Friday, but the fact that there are heavy snow amounts near by implies the dearth of snow near the coast is more likely an artifact of modeling.....in the other system, they were out in NYS, which implies a synoptic issue.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

More of that sh*t huh

We got burned Friday. It’s def a concern... it could be wrong.. but who knows.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Right? I'm always wary of being too aggressive writing off lower level warmth as model bias. Especially in March

I think right along the coast, it could be an issue and shouldn't be dismissed, but I'm not buying the contamination out to 495 and ORH area. That isn't going to happen with these low tracks. If the low track changes, then sure.

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially after Friday, but the fact that there are heavy snow amounts near by implies the dearth of snow near the coast is more likely an artifact of modeling.....in the other system, they were out in NYS, which implies a synoptic issue.

I agree, more likely. And somebody in the subforum is getting a ton of snow from this.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Extended reggie gives me a small stiffy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think right along the coast, it could be an issue and shouldn't be dismissed, but I'm not buying the contamination out to 495 and ORH area. That isn't going to happen with these low tracks. If the low track changes, then sure.

I think I'll be playing with fire, which is nice...I'll take my chances.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think right along the coast, it could be an issue and shouldn't be dismissed, but I'm not buying the contamination out to 495 and ORH area. That isn't going to happen with these low tracks. If the low track changes, then sure.

I would feel better if Ryan didn't clearly show thermal issues with his CT map.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

More of that sh*t huh

Its close -1C to -3C at H85 with heavy precip...should get it to paste.

I don't get it but this is the model's p-type accumulation.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I agree, more likely. And somebody in the subforum is getting a ton of snow from this.

I can def. see it at immediate coast,  but I'll worry about that for final call.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll eat out of Steve's dog bowl if I get 8" of snow.

The likely scenario, if this corrects East, will be to reverse that map and give W zones 8-10" and your area 12-16".  Selfishly hope not  but I've watched that scenario time after time the past few years. 

 At least there are no great worries with a condensed to QPF field or sharp cutoff with this one.

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think right along the coast, it could be an issue and shouldn't be dismissed, but I'm not buying the contamination out to 495 and ORH area. That isn't going to happen with these low tracks. If the low track changes, then sure.

Agreed.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I'll be playing with fire, which is nice...I'll take my chances.

You'll be fine as long as we don't get a 12z NAM type track.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Huge run, colder too. Wouldnt say it caved to euro just yet...if you look at pretty surface maps, yea its east which is a good thing though. But the h5 is drool worthy how it is trending with quicker stream involvement and a stall.

Snows thru Fri weeeee.

I'm ready to mail you my subscription dues. 

[weatherwiz]

This is just epic. It would dump here for several hours then we get a nice happy ending at the end as it pivots through 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

I can't remember the last time models busted down here regarding precip type. For the most part, if they show rain..it rains. I feel like it only matters right on the line..but if you are well within..forget it. 

[Zeus]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Extended reggie gives me a small stiffy.

Don't worry; I'm told what matters in those cases is how you USE it!

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Reggie extended

 

Definitely a theme for two areas of jack on some of these runs. 

This RGEM run puts the gap in VT/NH, NE MA and SW ME... the earlier NAM runs did it more down in CT and SE NY.  That'll be interesting to follow over the next 36-48 hours.

[CTWeatherFreak]

Isnt GFS an outlier wrt its rain portrayal? I dont recall  any other model suggesting rain through ct and up into Ma.

[mostman]

GFS still puts a 3” spot over my head. If that’s all snow, that’s a lot. 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Isnt GFS an outlier wrt its rain portrayal? I dont recall  any other model suggesting rain through ct and up into Ma.

Seems like that's more an issue of just being bad with BL temps than anything else. 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Its close -1C to -3C at H85 with heavy precip...should get it to paste.

I don't get it but this is the model's p-type accumulation.

 

Sounding are snow in those rain algos, toss um

[Damage In Tolland]

If yiu toss the horrific thermals it has.. 95% of SNE is crushed 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Seems like that's more an issue of just being bad with BL temps than anything else. 

Yeah I prob wouldn't worry outside of SE CT, S RI, and SE MA (perhaps immediate coast of eastern MA shore too) unless we start going to a 12z NAM track on reliable guidance.

I think those inside of 128 in E MA should not ignore it though...if Euro is more correct, then it will be paste right into BOS and even south shore, but not all the runs are doing that.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If yiu toss the horrific thermals it has.. 95% of SNE is crushed 

snow growth city on those soundings too

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If yiu toss the horrific thermals it has.. 95% of SNE is crushed 

I counted 3 true days of flakes in the air too.

[moneypitmike]

 

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The likely scenario, if this corrects East, will be to reverse that map and give W zones 8-10" and your area 12-16".  Selfishly hope not  but I've watched that scenario time after time the past few years. 

 At least there are no great worries with a condensed to QPF field or sharp cutoff with this one.

 

You might want to tag along to Pit 2.